Shouldn't the GOP be genuinely worried about 2012?

[Immanuel]

The basic premise of the OP is that only Romney could possibly defeat President Obama.

Utterly comical.

Such undiluted bullshit.

President Obama couldn't win re-election even if the GOP picked an imbecile like TDM to run against him.

Billy Nothing's post is a nominee for dumbass laugh of the day!

I'm sorry, but if TDM were running I would be voting for Obama.

Immie

 

[G.T.]

The basic premise of the OP is that only Romney could possibly defeat President Obama.

Utterly comical.

Such undiluted bullshit.

President Obama couldn't win re-election even if the GOP picked an imbecile like TDM to run against him.

Billy Nothing's post is a nominee for dumbass laugh of the day!

I'm sorry, but if TDM were running I would be voting for Obama.

Immie

dass funneh, yo

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Don't forget about the lobbyist funded advocacy ads that will flood the airwaves with incredible claims of marxist plots and treasonous activities, that crap may please the base but it will turn off an American public that wants jobs, not alarmist RW propaganda.

Citizen's united will be the undoing of the republicans, mark my words.

Obama, where are the JOBS?

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

In truth, the only viable candidate is Romney, so if he doesn't win the primary, the GOP might as well throw in the towel because the rest of them suck.

The problem with Romney (among many others…) is democrats won’t vote for him; no republican can be elected without a good amount of democratic support.

Some moderates and independents may be a little more likely to vote for Romney, but not enough to help.

The fact is none of the GOP contenders have the gravitas or charisma to draw away Obama supporters in large enough numbers to have an impact; some may decide to just stay home, but few will vote for a republican.

 

[Unkotare]

Finally a word to the conservative base, quit thinking the swing voters feel the same as you, you are now so far from the center that even they look like commies to you. Fringe politics will be terribly out of fashion by next November, do not be surprised when your tired old culture wars social issues lose traction.

In 2010, Conservatives Still Outnumber Moderates, Liberals

 

[Si modo]

With over 73% of the country thinking that we are on the wrong track, ANYONE who is currently in office, especially the President, should be very worried about 2012.

(RCP)

 

[Billy000]

The basic premise of the OP is that only Romney could possibly defeat President Obama.

Utterly comical.

Such undiluted bullshit.

President Obama couldn't win re-election even if the GOP picked an imbecile like TDM to run against him.

Billy Nothing's post is a nominee for dumbass laugh of the day!

You apparently do not know much about the race thus far. Like him or not, Obama has a solid chance of getting re-elected.

Come on, is there not a forum on the Internet that can maintain maturity in its members? We are talking about adult stuff, so act like one.

 

[Immanuel]

And to answer the question of the OP, I think the GOP should be concerned about this election. The last person in the world (excluding TDM) I want sitting in the Oval Office in 2013 is Barack Obama, but, I fear this "we can't lose" attitude that so many on the right are displaying.

I'm afraid that they can lose. I'm afraid that the GOP is doing its damnedest to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's too damned early to claim victory. If I am not mistaken, some of the rightwingers on here were certain McCain would win in 2008... absolutely certain and he lost. And now, the "right" is set to nominate Romney so that it really doesn't matter if Obama wins or not, we get more of the same old shit.

Immie

 

[Si modo]

The basic premise of the OP is that only Romney could possibly defeat President Obama.

Utterly comical.

Such undiluted bullshit.

President Obama couldn't win re-election even if the GOP picked an imbecile like TDM to run against him.

Billy Nothing's post is a nominee for dumbass laugh of the day!

You apparently do not know much about the race thus far. Like him or not, Obama has a solid chance of getting re-elected.

If you call running tied with a no-name Republican a solid position, then you might have a point.

Or you could just be delusional.

(RCP)

 

[Unkotare]

In truth, the only viable candidate is Romney, so if he doesn't win the primary, the GOP might as well throw in the towel because the rest of them suck.

The problem with Romney (among many others…) is democrats won’t vote for him;.

Of course many of them will.

 

[Billy000]

The basic premise of the OP is that only Romney could possibly defeat President Obama.

Utterly comical.

Such undiluted bullshit.

President Obama couldn't win re-election even if the GOP picked an imbecile like TDM to run against him.

Billy Nothing's post is a nominee for dumbass laugh of the day!

You apparently do not know much about the race thus far. Like him or not, Obama has a solid chance of getting re-elected.

If you call running tied with a no-name Republican a solid position, then you might have a point.

Or you could just be delusional.

(RCP)

Not true. Polls show that Obama leads a generic republican. He is tied with Romney.

 

[BluePhantom]

In truth, the only viable candidate is Romney, so if he doesn't win the primary, the GOP might as well throw in the towel because the rest of them suck.

Romney is pretty evenly matched with Obama right now in the polls. However, they are tied despite a sluggish economy. That says a lot about Obama. I think he is bound to only gain momentum from here on out. Afterall, the economy is actually improving a smidge. It just needs to remain consistent until 2012 (not very likely).

The short answer to the title of your thread is "no". The long answer is as follows:

1) Romney will almost certainly be the nominee. If you look at the primary schedule it favors Romney in a very big way. The early states gain momentum and campaign contributions go where the momentum is. Cain could play a factor but his financial power is nowhere near what Romney can do. In addition to Cain's recent problems (which for the record I think are total bullshit) it really opens the door for Romney to hammer this down pretty quick...provided there are no major surprises (which there always are).

2) Assuming Romney gets the GOP nod we need to look at the electoral map. No matter what Obama does he will score WA, OR, CA, MI, IL, MN, HI, MD, DC, DE, NJ, RI, CT, NY, MA, VT, and ME. That's 212 EVs out of the 270 needed to win that are locked in for Obama. He will almost certainly get NM, and PA as well bringing him to 237.

Now Romney on the other hand has some locks as well. He will get AK, ID, MT, WY, UT, AZ, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV, and IN. That's 191 EVs locked. He will almost certainly score NC, NH (where he is wildly popular), and FL. That brings him to 239.

Now you said before that Obama is tied with Romney and that's a good thing. No it's not. Historically, incumbents start with big leads, and Democrats also historically start with big leads and the Republican closes in as election day nears. Obama is a Democratic incumbent which means he should be getting a boost from both of these things. The problem is...he's not. Usually the GOP a year away from an election will gain 7-8 points by the time the election hits, and the incumbent usually has a good 5-7 point advantage to begin with. That means historically Obama needs to be 12-15 points ahead of Romney at this point in order to make it close.

When you consider that, and then look at the RCP averages in the remaining states you realize that OH, NV, and VA will most likely go to Romney and that gives him 276 already without even considering IA, WI, or CO (all of which I believe will ultimately go to Obama but are too close to call at this point and the polls in WI are showing a very strong lean to Romney as well).

So the short answer is "no" and the long answer is "oh hell no"

 

[occupied]

And to answer the question of the OP, I think the GOP should be concerned about this election. The last person in the world (excluding TDM) I want sitting in the Oval Office in 2013 is Barack Obama, but, I fear this "we can't lose" attitude that so many on the right are displaying.

I'm afraid that they can lose. I'm afraid that the GOP is doing its damnedest to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's too damned early to claim victory. If I am not mistaken, some of the rightwingers on here were certain McCain would win in 2008... absolutely certain and he lost. And now, the "right" is set to nominate Romney so that it really doesn't matter if Obama wins or not, we get more of the same old shit.

Immie

This is the biggest flaw in republican strategy, they are certain that they will win by just doubling down with the scare tactics, and that the republican nominee is a certain winner. Hubris embodied.

 

[Si modo]

You apparently do not know much about the race thus far. Like him or not, Obama has a solid chance of getting re-elected.

If you call running tied with a no-name Republican a solid position, then you might have a point.

Or you could just be delusional.

(RCP)

Not true. Polls show that Obama leads a generic republican. He is tied with Romney.

Wrong.

Republican 43.5%

Obama 43.3%

 

[BluePhantom]

Not true. Polls show that Obama leads a generic republican. He is tied with Romney.

Check RCP.....you might want to revise that statement

 

[Unkotare]

[

Not true. Polls show that Obama leads a generic republican. He is tied with Romney.

You got that wrong.

 

[Toro]

Somebody should be worried but I don't think it is the GOP.

 

[Jackson]

In truth, the only viable candidate is Romney, so if he doesn't win the primary, the GOP might as well throw in the towel because the rest of them suck.

Romney is pretty evenly matched with Obama right now in the polls. However, they are tied despite a sluggish economy. That says a lot about Obama. I think he is bound to only gain momentum from here on out. Afterall, the economy is actually improving a smidge. It just needs to remain consistent until 2012 (not very likely).

Sex scandal or no sex scandal, Cain doesn't know what the hell he is doing. His only solution to growing the economy is his 999 plan which would raise takes on 87% of the population. It would hardly be a cure-all.
Not only does he not have any experience in foreign policy, he knows nothing about it. He's demonstrated that several times in the debates.

I'm not sure about Newt's policies. I don't think it matters, though. He isn't going to win the Primary. It will likely be Romney.

I believe you have forgotten about Solyndra, Fast and Furious and Obama delaying the pipeline for the votes of the environmentalists. This country does not want a 4 year campaigner, they want a leader. And having Biden as the heartbeat to the president isn't comforting to most citizens.

When choices are made, people have to look at the experience of the two choices. The president has a horrible record and Biden unfortunately is a bumbling kind of man. Not ledership in either.

When we look at Romney and Gingrich on the same ticket, we are looking at experience with the economy, bipartisanship that we need so much and leadership qualities in both men. There's just no question the this ticket is a winner. Most will agree.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

And to answer the question of the OP, I think the GOP should be concerned about this election. The last person in the world (excluding TDM) I want sitting in the Oval Office in 2013 is Barack Obama, but, I fear this "we can't lose" attitude that so many on the right are displaying.

I'm afraid that they can lose. I'm afraid that the GOP is doing its damnedest to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's too damned early to claim victory. If I am not mistaken, some of the rightwingers on here were certain McCain would win in 2008... absolutely certain and he lost. And now, the "right" is set to nominate Romney so that it really doesn't matter if Obama wins or not, we get more of the same old shit.

Immie

This is the biggest flaw in republican strategy, they are certain that they will win by just doubling down with the scare tactics, and that the republican nominee is a certain winner. Hubris embodied.

Republicans don't need scare tactics, they just have to point to the economy.

Obama's vague Hopey Changey campaign from 2008 can't be repeated.

He has to run on his (horrible) record. Buh-bye.

 

[Billy000]

In truth, the only viable candidate is Romney, so if he doesn't win the primary, the GOP might as well throw in the towel because the rest of them suck.

Romney is pretty evenly matched with Obama right now in the polls. However, they are tied despite a sluggish economy. That says a lot about Obama. I think he is bound to only gain momentum from here on out. Afterall, the economy is actually improving a smidge. It just needs to remain consistent until 2012 (not very likely).

The short answer to the title of your thread is "no". The long answer is as follows:

1) Romney will almost certainly be the nominee. If you look at the primary schedule it favors Romney in a very big way. The early states gain momentum and campaign contributions go where the momentum is. Cain could play a factor but his financial power is nowhere near what Romney can do. In addition to Cain's recent problems (which for the record I think are total bullshit) it really opens the door for Romney to hammer this down pretty quick...provided there are no major surprises (which there always are).

2) Assuming Romney gets the GOP nod we need to look at the electoral map. No matter what Obama does he will score WA, OR, CA, MI, IL, MN, HI, MD, DC, DE, NJ, RI, CT, NY, MA, VT, and ME. That's 212 EVs out of the 270 needed to win that are locked in for Obama. He will almost certainly get NM, and PA as well bringing him to 237.

Now Romney on the other hand has some locks as well. He will get AK, ID, MT, WY, UT, AZ, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, WV, and IN. That's 191 EVs locked. He will almost certainly score NC, NH (where he is wildly popular), and FL. That brings him to 239.

Now you said before that Obama is tied with Romney and that's a good thing. No it's not. Historically, incumbents start with big leads, and Democrats also historically start with big leads and the Republican closes in as election day nears. Obama is a Democratic incumbent which means he should be getting a boost from both of these things. The problem is...he's not. Usually the GOP a year away from an election will gain 7-8 points by the time the election hits, and the incumbent usually has a good 5-7 point advantage to begin with. That means historically Obama needs to be 12-15 points ahead of Romney at this point in order to make it close.

When you consider that, and then look at the RCP averages in the remaining states you realize that OH, NV, and VA will most likely go to Romney and that gives him 276 already without even considering IA, WI, or CO (all of which I believe will ultimately go to Obama but are too close to call at this point and the polls in WI are showing a very strong lean to Romney as well).

So the short answer is "no" and the long answer is "oh hell no"

That's a good assessment, but it's based purely on trends. The race very well could be close, but there are X factors to be considered. Obama for instance, is a damn good campaigner - even Fox News can admit that.