Johann
Silver Member
- Nov 6, 2015
- 621
- 147
- 90
I’ve been thinking about the long-term sustainability of pay-as-you-go systems like Social Security and Medicare. These programs rely on future generations to fund today’s retirees. But with declining fertility, aging populations, and a low replacement rate, there’s a fundamental problem: without enough children, these systems—and the society that relies on them—cannot survive.
Here’s a thought experiment for discussion:
Proposal:
Rationale:
Questions for discussion:
I’m curious to hear constructive feedback from people who can think through the economics, demographics, and incentives realistically.
Here’s a thought experiment for discussion:
Proposal:
- Income Tax:
- High earners above the median wage face a steep marginal tax rate (e.g., 90%).
- This rate is reduced by 20% per child, making children a direct way to reduce one’s tax burden.
- Entitlement Eligibility:
- Access to Social Security and Medicare requires having at least 3 children.
- Childless individuals would not automatically receive these benefits.
Rationale:
- Children are the ultimate “investment” in the system—they fund future retirees.
- Social programs are returns on contributing to society’s continuity, not universal entitlements.
- The system aligns personal incentives with societal survival: those who contribute to the future workforce are rewarded, and those who don’t cannot rely on it indefinitely.
Questions for discussion:
- Would a system like this realistically encourage higher fertility?
- What unintended economic or social consequences might arise?
- Could this be implemented in a fair, practical, and legally defensible way?
- Are there alternative mechanisms to achieve the same demographic goals without immigration?
I’m curious to hear constructive feedback from people who can think through the economics, demographics, and incentives realistically.
