Vagabond63
Gold Member
So, no shootings in October and 2 so far in November in the UK... oops no, found another 2, that makes 4, with all our gun control laws. How many in the USA in that time? Shall I start looking, just for comparative purposes?
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature currently requires accessing the site using the built-in Safari browser.
2aguy said:As more Americans went out and now own and carry guns, our gun crime rate did not go up, our gun murder rate did not go up.
Without proper registration, monitoring and control, you have absolutely no idea of how many Americans bought how many guns. It is therefore equally valid to state that the same number of Americans just added 1-10+ more guns to their gun existing collections; also gun permits do not necessarily mean guns are owned by everyone with a permit, just like everyone who has a driving licence doesn’t necessarily own a car, while others have more than one car.
So, no shootings in October and 2 so far in November in the UK... oops no, found another 2, that makes 4, with all our gun control laws. How many in the USA in that time? Shall I start looking, just for comparative purposes?
2aguy said:Meanwhile...in the United States.....Americans use their legal guns 1.1 million times a year to stop violent rapes, robberies and murders...saving lives. This number comes from our Centers for Disease control research.
No it doesn’t. This comes from Gleck & Co. projections based on an extrapolated telephone sample. Depends on where you look but ESTIMATES and/or PROJECTIONS based on these sample surveys range from 180,000 to 2.5 million ( the latter, a figure you used to quote ad nauseam until you were laughed off the board).
2aguy said:And back to the questions you refuse to answer...
I tend not to answer pointless non-question questions or “questions” that are in reality, Appeal to Emotion fallacies, which incidentally prove that you have no factual evidence to offer; you just peddle fear.
I could just as easily ask you, “Would it be better for you if a child finds a gun and kills themselves with a legal gun that was carelessly left lying around, or that the owner should have had compulsory and sufficient training in how to store a gun safely in order to obtain a gun permit and/or gun? Texas boy, 3, dies after accidentally shooting himself in the chest at birthday party
Oh, as for time travel, that opens up a whole new can of worms. Ever read A sound of Thunder by Ray Bradbury? A Sound of Thunder - Wikipedia Very prescient.
2aguy said:And back to the questions you refuse to answer...
I tend not to answer pointless non-question questions or “questions” that are in reality, Appeal to Emotion fallacies, which incidentally prove that you have no factual evidence to offer; you just peddle fear.
I could just as easily ask you, “Would it be better for you if a child finds a gun and kills themselves with a legal gun that was carelessly left lying around, or that the owner should have had compulsory and sufficient training in how to store a gun safely in order to obtain a gun permit and/or gun? Texas boy, 3, dies after accidentally shooting himself in the chest at birthday party
Oh, as for time travel, that opens up a whole new can of worms. Ever read A sound of Thunder by Ray Bradbury? A Sound of Thunder - Wikipedia Very prescient.
2aguy said:This means that the variable of gun ownership does not increase the gun crime rate or the gun murder rate,
Neither does it decrease the gun crime rate or the gun murder rate. Without proper registration and reporting you cannot prove your theory of “more guns in private hands = less crime”. If anything, more guns in private hands makes life easier for professional criminals to acquire guns illegally. So called “responsible gun owners” are even able to sell their “private property” to anyone. Do you seriously think criminals don’t go to gun fairs for that very reason?
====http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf
COMMENTS
Confirming ìMore Guns, Less Crimeî Florenz Plassmann* & John Whitley**
CONCLUSION Analyzing county-level data for the entire United States from 1977 to 2000, we find annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5% and 2.3% for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in effect.
For the first five years that such a law is in effect, the total benefit from reduced crimes usually ranges between about $2 and $3 billion per year.
The results are very similar to earlier estimates using county-level data from 1977 to 1996. We appreciate the continuing effort that Ayres and Donohue have made in discussing the impact of right-to-carry laws on crime rates. Yet we believe that both the new evidence provided by them as well as our new results show consistently that right-to-carry laws reduce crime and save lives. Unfortunately, a few simple mistakes lead Ayres and Donohue to incorrectly claim that crime rates significantly increase after right-to-carry laws are initially adopted and to misinterpret the significance of their own estimates that examined the year-to-year impact of the law.
===An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates
Mark Gius
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates.
Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states.
It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).
“The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws” by Carlisle e. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, published in Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here..
Summary and Conclusion
Many articles have been published finding that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one article, by Ayres and Donohue who employ a model that combines a dummy variable with a post-law trend, claims to find that shall-issue laws increase crime.
However, the only way that they can produce the result that shall-issue laws increase crime is to confine the span of analysis to five years
. We show, using their own estimates, that if they had extended their analysis by one more year, they would have concluded that these laws reduce crime.
Since most states with shallissue laws have had these laws on the books for more than five years, and the law will presumably remain on the books for some time, the only relevant analysis extends beyond five years. We extend their analysis by adding three more years of data, control for the effects of crack cocaine, control for dynamic effects, and correct the standard errors for clustering.
We find that there is an initial increase in crime due to passage of the shall-issue law that is dwarfed over time by the decrease in crime associated with the post-law trend.
These results are very similar to those of Ayres and Donohue, properly interpreted.
The modified Ayres and Donohue model finds that shall-issue laws significantly reduce murder and burglary across all the adopting states. These laws appear to significantly increase assault, and have no net effect on rape, robbery, larceny, or auto theft. However, in the long run only the trend coefficients matter. We estimate a net benefit of $450 million per year as a result of the passage of these laws. We also estimate that, up through 2000, there was a cumulative overall net benefit of these laws of $28 billion since their passage. We think that there is credible statistical evidence that these laws lower the costs of crime. But at the very least, the present study should neutralize any “more guns, more crime” thinking based on Ayres and Donohue’s work in the Stanford Law Review
So, no shootings in October and 2 so far in November in the UK... oops no, found another 2, that makes 4, with all our gun control laws. How many in the USA in that time? Shall I start looking, just for comparative purposes?
2aguy said:There is no need to register guns. No reason at all.
2aguy said:You stated that crime around the world went down a the same time.....you failed to mention that crime in the U.S. went down more and faster than crime around the world.
2aguy said:A quick guide to the studies and the numbers.....the full lay out of what was studied by each study is in the links....[/quote}
So you can point out which of these “studies” used actual factual recorded empirical data, and were not simply extrapolations based on small sample interviews relying on respondents opinions?
2aguy said:Again, you don't want to answer the question, so I will repeat it.
2aguy said:Can you tell which number is bigger and how many lives are saved by Americans with guns?
You mean articles cited by John (lies a) Lott’s start-up company, riiiight, got it.2aguy said:You can't say that while actual studies show that gun ownership does lower the crime rate...
You mean articles cited by John (lies a) Lott’s start-up company, riiiight, got it.2aguy said:You can't say that while actual studies show that gun ownership does lower the crime rate...
2aguy said:Can you tell which number is bigger and how many lives are saved by Americans with guns?
54 children killed is presumably a documented fact. The rest, lives saved with guns, is fantasy, estimation, extrapolation, and guesswork.
Cue next barrage of cut and paste BS...GO!
Should have anticipated the usual deluge of cut and paste...hey ho.
2aguy said:There is no need to register guns. No reason at all.
Then why register cars? So, you know which gun belongs to which owner, and when it’s sold on, the transfer of ownership is recorded. You do it for cars, why not guns, which are arguably as much if not more dangerous.
Should have anticipated the usual deluge of cut and paste...hey ho.
2aguy said:There is no need to register guns. No reason at all.
Then why register cars? So, you know which gun belongs to which owner, and when it’s sold on, the transfer of ownership is recorded. You do it for cars, why not guns, which are arguably as much if not more dangerous.