Russia is smashing Ukraine - best public military analysis so far

[MarcATL]

Russia is demonstrating to the world that their military is a farce

Poorly led, poor planning, no logistics and poorly trained troops.

The Ukraine invasion they thought would wrap up in weeks with Ukraine quickly surrendering will now take years

The Russian economy can’t take it

Facts!

 

[Jim H - VA USA]

Michael Kofman is a premier Russian analyst and has these take aways.

• Kiev was always a distraction he predicted a small force to hit Kiev for political pressure but that the main pincer attack to be through Kharkiv and Mariupol
  • He predicted that back in January.
• Russia has used almost NONE of its high tech weaponry. Almost all of the Russian losses are old Soviet Armor and aircraft.
• Russia's casualties are almost entirely conscripts used to "pad out the force". They were forced into the military in the last few months before the war and were always intended to be cannon fodder.
• Russia has effectively pinned Ukraine in the Joint Operations Area in the South East in the Donbas Pocket and he doesn't know what will come of it.
• Ukraine cannot counter attack. They are unable to resupply effectively if they tried.
• NATO is out of weapons to give to Ukraine which is why they are now down to giving Ukraine the scraps from old Soviet era.
• Russia hasn't tried to capture most cities if they can avoid it. THAT WAS THEIR PLAN ALL ALONG.
• He summarizes as:
  • "Russia is working the body, to use a bad boxing analogy."

Things Michael Kofman thinks Russia did/does poorly.

• They didn't seize air superiority in the beginning with surprise allowing Ukraine to disperse their air defenses because they sought a "political victory" rather than a military victory.
  • He now says they have clearly changed to a military victory mindset which means their goal is to destroy the Ukrainian Army in the field. An objective that was previously not attempted.
• They don't capitalize on jamming communications primarily because of their use of conscripts who have mixed comms and Ukraine's comms overlap so there's less flexibility.
  • Ukraine likewise doesn't jam Russian comms.

It would be really great if countries like Russia would quit invading peaceful sovereign countries like Ukraine.

PS:
(short video of Russian tanks getting destroyed while retreating)

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2022/04/07/3632697433446763092/1024x576_MP4_3632697433446763092.mp4

 

[frigidweirdo]

Michael Kofman is a premier Russian analyst and has these take aways.

• Kiev was always a distraction he predicted a small force to hit Kiev for political pressure but that the main pincer attack to be through Kharkiv and Mariupol
  • He predicted that back in January.
• Russia has used almost NONE of its high tech weaponry. Almost all of the Russian losses are old Soviet Armor and aircraft.
• Russia's casualties are almost entirely conscripts used to "pad out the force". They were forced into the military in the last few months before the war and were always intended to be cannon fodder.
• Russia has effectively pinned Ukraine in the Joint Operations Area in the South East in the Donbas Pocket and he doesn't know what will come of it.
• Ukraine cannot counter attack. They are unable to resupply effectively if they tried.
• NATO is out of weapons to give to Ukraine which is why they are now down to giving Ukraine the scraps from old Soviet era.
• Russia hasn't tried to capture most cities if they can avoid it. THAT WAS THEIR PLAN ALL ALONG.
• He summarizes as:
  • "Russia is working the body, to use a bad boxing analogy."

Things Michael Kofman thinks Russia did/does poorly.

• They didn't seize air superiority in the beginning with surprise allowing Ukraine to disperse their air defenses because they sought a "political victory" rather than a military victory.
  • He now says they have clearly changed to a military victory mindset which means their goal is to destroy the Ukrainian Army in the field. An objective that was previously not attempted.
• They don't capitalize on jamming communications primarily because of their use of conscripts who have mixed comms and Ukraine's comms overlap so there's less flexibility.
  • Ukraine likewise doesn't jam Russian comms.

172 coalition soldiers were killed in the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Russia surpassed that with EASE.

 

[DarthTrader]

Sounds like another moron like Dr. Fiona Hill who told Obama not to give Ukraine weapons to defend themselves against Russia in 2014, so the US just sent blankets and MREs.
There are tons of military experts who all disagree.
These are the geniuses that said Russia would capture Ukraine in 3-days.

Except he's not a moron and you're dumber than shit

 

[DarthTrader]

172 coalition soldiers were killed in the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Russia surpassed that with EASE.

Iraq didn't fight back when we marched on Baghdad and had small arms and that was it lol.

 

[Lesh]

Iraq didn't fight back when we marched on Baghdad and had small arms and that was it lol.

They were equipped with basically the same weapons that Russia is now failing miserably with

 

[badger2]

This will be phase 2, a different situation due to resources.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Iraq didn't fight back when we marched on Baghdad and had small arms and that was it lol.

Exactly. Russia went into a war believing it could win, and the Ukrainians fought back. What does this say about Russia's mentality?

Is Russia "winning" in their own view? Doubtful.

 

[Rigby5]

So taking a whole two months to gain only a little bit of land, then lose it was your plan? And you believe a Russian? You are no better than an American Hitler supporter in the 1930s.

Russia does not have to take any "land" at all.
All Russia has to do is prevent the Ukraine from running its economy.

Hitler had not done anything wrong in the early 1930s.
It was the Allies who committed all the atrocities in the Treaty of Versailles.

 

[Rigby5]

Russia is demonstrating to the world that their military is a farce

Poorly led, poor planning, no logistics and poorly trained troops.

The Ukraine invasion they thought would wrap up in weeks with Ukraine quickly surrendering will now take years

The Russian economy can’t take it

The Russian economy is fairly bulletproof.
It is the Ukraine that can not survive the break in production.

 

[Rigby5]

They were planning on 20,000 deaths?

The Ukraine is taking higher casualties, and the Russians don't care.
They had to do it regardless the cost.
The alternative was NATO nuke on their border, which they are never going to allow.

 

[Rigby5]

Sadly, the Russian people will put up with tremendous hardship because of Putin’s Folly

Hopefully, Putin will be removed

Would not matter in the least who was in charge of Moscow.
The Ukraine violated basics that can not be allowed.
Any Russian leader would have to continue until the Ukraine gives up.

 

[rightwinger]

It won't be over for years because mainly - I think - Russia's big goals are two:

• Bleed European limited military supplies dry.
• Use Ukraine as a whipping boy to do tit-for-tat sanctions against the West letting the West slowly reveal itself to be the Imperialist bully the world hates.
  • IMF
  • Exported Inflation
  • Sanctions
  • Everything - the world hates the West's grip on monetary power and global trade.

"Go on, sanction our oil and fertilizer and tell Egypt, Zimbabwe, Bhutan, Malaysia, why they all must pay HIGHER prices for YOUR WAR. We didn't sanction you when you killed 1 million Iraqis. You're an Emperor with no clothes."

The Russian economy can’t afford to play such games
The Western economies can play indefinitely

Russia will be forced into an occupation without end. An occupation whose resistance will be funded and supported by Western powers

Putin can artificially prop up his fragile economy through economic tricks. It will collapse like a House of Cards

 

[rightwinger]

Even if the Ukrainian army is defeated, Guerrilla warfare will drive them crazy.

Warfare that will be supported by the West

 

[Rigby5]

It won't be over for years because mainly - I think - Russia's big goals are two:

• Bleed European limited military supplies dry.
• Use Ukraine as a whipping boy to do tit-for-tat sanctions against the West letting the West slowly reveal itself to be the Imperialist bully the world hates.
  • IMF
  • Exported Inflation
  • Sanctions
  • Everything - the world hates the West's grip on monetary power and global trade.

"Go on, sanction our oil and fertilizer and tell Egypt, Zimbabwe, Bhutan, Malaysia, why they all must pay HIGHER prices for YOUR WAR. We didn't sanction you when you killed 1 million Iraqis. You're an Emperor with no clothes."

Agreed.
I already hate the IMF, illegal economic sanctions, the west obviously bribing the Ukraine, etc.
The whole world will likely switch away from the US dollar for oil and reserve trading.
We are done for.

 

[Lesh]

Russia does not have to take any "land" at all.
All Russia has to do is prevent the Ukraine from running its economy.

Hitler had not done anything wrong in the early 1930s.
It was the Allies who committed all the atrocities in the Treaty of Versailles.

Shut the fuck up Boris

Your country is being strangled

 

[rightwinger]

Would not matter in the least who was in charge of Moscow.
The Ukraine violated basics that can not be allowed.
Any Russian leader would have to continue until the Ukraine gives up.

Good luck with that

What will ultimately give up will be the Russian economy and willingness to fight

 

[Rigby5]

Sounds like another moron like Dr. Fiona Hill who told Obama not to give Ukraine weapons to defend themselves against Russia in 2014, so the US just sent blankets and MREs.
There are tons of military experts who all disagree.
These are the geniuses that said Russia would capture Ukraine in 3-days.

All you accomplish when you give the Ukraine all those stinger and javelin missiles, is increase the body count on both sides.
Russia is still going to win because they are never going to stop, no matter what it takes.
That is because they are in the right, they can NOT allow NATO nukes on their border.

 

[rightwinger]

The Russian economy is fairly bulletproof.
It is the Ukraine that can not survive the break in production.

Anything but bulletproof
It is a House of Cards built on oil

It Will tumble

 

[Rigby5]

Only 17% of Ukraine is Russian held, and even that small percentage is shrinking. It is now well into month TWO and it has not gotten better for Russian forces. 20,000 Russian dead litter the Ukrainian landscape with the countless burned out hulls of tanks and vehicles. Many thousands more are wounded or missing.

So Russian stooge, tell me how you see this as a lot of land, and a military success, you DUMB FUCKING SHIT.

This is a military success because the Ukraine is in even worse shape than the Russian forces.
Eventually all imports of US weapons will be cut off, and run out.
So then the Ukraine will have to surrender.
So then what good will all those weapons we gave them do?