Ruh oh, What does Dr Doom Predict Next?

[samjones]

Really? You mean they didn't do their same old schtick that "low interest rates cause bubbles" like they've been doing for the past 70 years. Stopped clock and all.

Bottom-line, nobody who matters is listening to these Austrian School kooks or their Internet minions.

November will come, November will go - that will not change. 4 years from November, that will not have changed. For years from that, same damned thing.

It's this decade's militia movement. It won't have it's day. It won't burn out. It will just disappear and we'll forget it ever existed.

 

[Paulie]

They're still doing that. The Austrian School Theorists have practically zero impact on public policy. They're really just a bunch of crotchety kooks..... Not hard to find them on the Internet, though.

Who said anything about having impact on policy? What does that have to do with anything?

You ought to be recognizing the irony in that they seem to be the best at calling bubbles and downturns while never being given credibility.

It'd normal. Good for them that they're "predictions" could, within some limits, claim to have matched what happened.

Bottom-line they're recommendations are unworkable in the real world and their entire philosophy is badly flawed. It doesn't really matter whether their predictions were right or wrong. If Congress, the Fed or the White House ever took anything these kooks say seriously then we would have economic Armageddon.... So they're just whistling in the wind.

Nothing but assumptions. Their ideas have never been put to work so there's no way anyone could presume them to be ANYTHING.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

Iran seems determined to drive the world off a cliff. The fact they are facing such a moral zero as Obama only seems to encourage them. Obama passing them the keys to Iraq must put the mad mullahs in an especially celebratory mood.

What matters with the world economies in this era is cleaning up balance sheets. Obama went on a spending spree. I see no sign myself that Stimulus stimulated anything. Now we have all that debt to service, and that means all the important stuff has to be cut in order to do so.

This is going to be rough time no matter who is elected, but it will be a lot rougher under Obama.

 

[L.K.Eder]

pretentious condescending introduction, and then "darvos".

 

[DSGE]

Who said anything about having impact on policy? What does that have to do with anything?

You ought to be recognizing the irony in that they seem to be the best at calling bubbles and downturns while never being given credibility.

It'd normal. Good for them that they're "predictions" could, within some limits, claim to have matched what happened.

Bottom-line they're recommendations are unworkable in the real world and their entire philosophy is badly flawed. It doesn't really matter whether their predictions were right or wrong. If Congress, the Fed or the White House ever took anything these kooks say seriously then we would have economic Armageddon.... So they're just whistling in the wind.

Nothing but assumptions. Their ideas have never been put to work so there's no way anyone could presume them to be ANYTHING.

Their ideas are incoherent garbage. They appeal to radical libertarians because they confirm their biases. Sound and rigorous foundations for ideas are necessary before jumping into the testing phase.

 

[Paulie]

It'd normal. Good for them that they're "predictions" could, within some limits, claim to have matched what happened.

Bottom-line they're recommendations are unworkable in the real world and their entire philosophy is badly flawed. It doesn't really matter whether their predictions were right or wrong. If Congress, the Fed or the White House ever took anything these kooks say seriously then we would have economic Armageddon.... So they're just whistling in the wind.

Nothing but assumptions. Their ideas have never been put to work so there's no way anyone could presume them to be ANYTHING.

Their ideas are incoherent garbage. They appeal to radical libertarians because they confirm their biases. Sound and rigorous foundations for ideas are necessary before jumping into the testing phase.

Yeah it's real "radical" to follow an economic model borne from the likes of Jefferson, Smith, et al. I mean it's not like the US constitution specifically lays out a model for a metal based currency or anything

 

[Trajan]

Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.

for what its worth I know who Dr Nouriel Roubini is, I must confess I didn't pay attention to Davos because its become a political axe grinding and anti Semitic train wreck.

I should have bookmarked Noruiels site which I will do so now, so thx for this CG.

As to the topic directly; we are, imho, for a historical reference point re:global tension, socio-econom. circumstances etc. somewhere around 1934.

I am not sure how much people pay attention to or realize, China is not exactly what it appears to be or what they like to trot out as "The China". there is a great deal of unrest, Tibet has seen more violence in the last 3 years than ever before. They are going to in the next 15 years hit a demographic wall, hard. Add to that, the decades of economic central planning and all that comes with it, will too, hit the wall. When the revolution comes will they become a democracy? maybe, will they become a military style dictatorship on par with imperial japan? who knows...

Europe? despite no having to spend nowhere near the $$ we do on a military, or having a credit based consumer driven econ. market, the hard truth is, they to are hitting the wall as we speak. The same wall that at the end of the tunnel we are heading down. And for the same reasons, government mgt. and ideology that says- we will promise everything, to everyone. Period.

The Middle East hell, when Iran gets the bomb, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt et al( and what a wild card Egypt has become eh? the Muslim brotherhood as the moderates in the gov? ) will have to have their own. mayhem is sure to follow. The great sunni-shia shaking out will come.......

A great global unrest has begun and will reach a critical mass. Its the story of our history and what will follow will be the ultimate 're-set' button.....

 

[DSGE]

Nothing but assumptions. Their ideas have never been put to work so there's no way anyone could presume them to be ANYTHING.

Their ideas are incoherent garbage. They appeal to radical libertarians because they confirm their biases. Sound and rigorous foundations for ideas are necessary before jumping into the testing phase.

Yeah it's real "radical" to follow an economic model borne from the likes of Jefferson, Smith, et al. I mean it's not like the US constitution specifically lays out a model for a metal based currency or anything

Oh, pardon me. Did Jefferson and Smith create a model of markets where monetary expansion caused business cycles? But even if they didn't, you're right. We should go with the spirit of Jefferson and Smith's will. It's not like we've amassed hundreds of years of knew knowledge since then.

 

[Paulie]

Their ideas are incoherent garbage. They appeal to radical libertarians because they confirm their biases. Sound and rigorous foundations for ideas are necessary before jumping into the testing phase.

Yeah it's real "radical" to follow an economic model borne from the likes of Jefferson, Smith, et al. I mean it's not like the US constitution specifically lays out a model for a metal based currency or anything

Oh, pardon me. Did Jefferson and Smith create a model of markets where monetary expansion caused business cycles? But even if they didn't, you're right. We should go with the spirit of Jefferson and Smith's will. It's not like we've amassed hundreds of years of knew knowledge since then.

You do realize that the idea of monetary expansion leading to business cycles is not exclusive to just Austrian theorists, right?

 

[DSGE]

Yeah it's real "radical" to follow an economic model borne from the likes of Jefferson, Smith, et al. I mean it's not like the US constitution specifically lays out a model for a metal based currency or anything

Oh, pardon me. Did Jefferson and Smith create a model of markets where monetary expansion caused business cycles? But even if they didn't, you're right. We should go with the spirit of Jefferson and Smith's will. It's not like we've amassed hundreds of years of knew knowledge since then.

You do realize that the idea of monetary expansion leading to business cycles is not exclusive to just Austrian theorists, right?

It's the largest group that uses it. I can't think of any other group that has a name that uses it.

 

[samjones]

Yeah it's real "radical" to follow an economic model borne from the likes of Jefferson, Smith, et al. I mean it's not like the US constitution specifically lays out a model for a metal based currency or anything

It is the inability of the radical right to devise and embrace theories that could actually be implemented that relegates them to the fringes. Every time Ron Paul gets a new supporter is merely empowers Barack Obama and the Democratic Party that is grounded enough in reality to actually get elected.

It's impossible to talk to the radical right. They'll just spout off about the founding fathers and impossible-to-implement monetary policy. That's why they'll never, ever, ever get what they want. Too much whackery.

 

[jillian]

Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.

if "no one" is reporting this, how do you know about it?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.

if "no one" is reporting this, how do you know about it?

Besides trolling, any input from Queen troll?

 

[California Girl]

Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.

for what its worth I know who Dr Nouriel Roubini is, I must confess I didn't pay attention to Davos because its become a political axe grinding and anti Semitic train wreck.

I should have bookmarked Noruiels site which I will do so now, so thx for this CG.

As to the topic directly; we are, imho, for a historical reference point re:global tension, socio-econom. circumstances etc. somewhere around 1934.

I am not sure how much people pay attention to or realize, China is not exactly what it appears to be or what they like to trot out as "The China". there is a great deal of unrest, Tibet has seen more violence in the last 3 years than ever before. They are going to in the next 15 years hit a demographic wall, hard. Add to that, the decades of economic central planning and all that comes with it, will too, hit the wall. When the revolution comes will they become a democracy? maybe, will they become a military style dictatorship on par with imperial japan? who knows...

Europe? despite no having to spend nowhere near the $$ we do on a military, or having a credit based consumer driven econ. market, the hard truth is, they to are hitting the wall as we speak. The same wall that at the end of the tunnel we are heading down. And for the same reasons, government mgt. and ideology that says- we will promise everything, to everyone. Period.

The Middle East hell, when Iran gets the bomb, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt et al( and what a wild card Egypt has become eh? the Muslim brotherhood as the moderates in the gov? ) will have to have their own. mayhem is sure to follow. The great sunni-shia shaking out will come.......

A great global unrest has begun and will reach a critical mass. Its the story of our history and what will follow will be the ultimate 're-set' button.....

The only point I'd slightly disagree with is the EU economy - it's perhaps not as credit based consumerist as ours is but, without doubt, they've got massive credit issues there too.

You're absolutely right about China. They have issues that they aren't letting the rest of the world know about... and that is something that should concern us all.

Egypt, despite all the 'high fiving' of 'democracy' is looking more likely to end up as quite an Islamic state.

I left out quite a lot of Dr Doom's predictions - mainly because it would have been a very long post otherwise but it would be good if you took a look too and let me know what you think of the rest of his opining.

 

[jillian]

Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.

if "no one" is reporting this, how do you know about it?

Besides trolling, any input from Queen troll?

off your meds again, nutter.

don't attribute your issues to me.

if someone makes a comment like 'no one is reporting this" they need to say where they "learned" of it.

negged for being a loser.

and what i ask my friend is between me and my friend. thanks for playing.

 

[California Girl]

if "no one" is reporting this, how do you know about it?

Besides trolling, any input from Queen troll?

off your meds again, nutter.

don't attribute your issues to me.

if someone makes a comment like 'no one is reporting this" they need to say where they "learned" of it.

negged for being a loser.

and what i ask my friend is between me and my friend. thanks for playing.

It's a perfectly legitimate question, mo chara... and I am not at all offended by the question. I didn't actually say no one is reporting it, I said there's limited coverage and mainly it is 'spun' coverage. I used his website, which is restricted membership. And from my personal contacts, some of whom attended the Forum.

The reason I didn't link to any media reporting is that the limited coverage that I have seen is biased towards particular view points - either conservative or liberal... and I try to avoid partisan spin when I'm starting a thread. I always think it's more interesting to have a discussion on issues, not on how the media presents an issue.

 

[Dragon]

So what did he suggest that nations do? Clean up our debt, and shift our investments from the ‘quick profit’ sectors such as finance and real estate to investing in our human capital (people), our structure, technology and innovation.

A problem with this is that investing in our human capital, structure, technology and innovation is counterproductive to cleaning up our debt. In the short term anyway. It requires increased government spending (as well as innovation) in education, infrastructure, and research. Which means we will have to do even more in the way of cutting in other areas (in the case of the U.S. the most obvious place to cut is our imperial military), and increasing taxes.

Another problem is that shifting investments from quick profit sectors to more long-term actual wealth production, while DEFINITELY a necessity, requires a correction for government policies that encourage the former over the latter, and those policies have strong constituencies among wealthy campaign donors. To make it work will require a vast redistribution of wealth downward so as to increase consumer demand, which is what drives real wealth-production investment. The higher the ratio of accumulated capital to consumer demand, the greater tendency there is to invest in something that is not dependent on the consumer market.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

if "no one" is reporting this, how do you know about it?

Besides trolling, any input from Queen troll?

off your meds again, nutter.

don't attribute your issues to me.

if someone makes a comment like 'no one is reporting this" they need to say where they "learned" of it.

negged for being a loser.

and what i ask my friend is between me and my friend. thanks for playing.

Hoo, kay. Thanks for the raspberries, but what have you got? Do you disagree with the assessment that Iran's mullahs are bat shit and are planning something stupid? Do you disagree with the assessment that public debt in all the democracies is way out of line with reality? Do you disagree with the assessment that China's problems of rising expectations and demographic imbalance are going to make for severe problems for the rest of the world later on?

 

[California Girl]

So what did he suggest that nations do? Clean up our debt, and shift our investments from the ‘quick profit’ sectors such as finance and real estate to investing in our human capital (people), our structure, technology and innovation.

A problem with this is that investing in our human capital, structure, technology and innovation is counterproductive to cleaning up our debt. In the short term anyway. It requires increased government spending (as well as innovation) in education, infrastructure, and research. Which means we will have to do even more in the way of cutting in other areas (in the case of the U.S. the most obvious place to cut is our imperial military), and increasing taxes.

Another problem is that shifting investments from quick profit sectors to more long-term actual wealth production, while DEFINITELY a necessity, requires a correction for government policies that encourage the former over the latter, and those policies have strong constituencies among wealthy campaign donors. To make it work will require a vast redistribution of wealth downward so as to increase consumer demand, which is what drives real wealth-production investment. The higher the ratio of accumulated capital to consumer demand, the greater tendency there is to invest in something that is not dependent on the consumer market.

Certainly it is now. Four years ago would have been a great time to start. But no, we got 'hope and change' instead.

Don't misunderstand my, I don't for one second think that McCain would have been any better. And I supported - in theory at least - a stimulus... unlike many of my conservative compatriots. I am a practical conservative.

I support raising the poor out of poverty by allowing the private sector to flourish... by having a Government provide economic stability for the private sector so that the private sector can provide a huge variety of jobs - from low level, minimum wage to high tech innovation. Jobs for all, not jobs for some and hands outs for others. I'm rational enough to realize that not all Americans are capable of undertaking high paying jobs, so I view the minimum wage jobs as essential to our country. I view manufacturing as vital to the country. I want to see all kinds of opportunities for all Americans. What I won't do, is use 'class warfare' to force my views on others.

 

[expat_panama]

,,,Dr Nouriel Roubini (world famous Economist), nicknamed Dr Doom for his dire predictions prior to those predictions becoming reality around the world. Smart, smart, smart man...

Not only did he predict the real estate crash of 2008, he also predicted property crashes in '02 and '05 too --that's three out of the past one crashes. OK, so he missed stocks doubling in value over the past four years but hey, nobody's perfect...