Trajan
conscientia mille testes
That makes no sense. If you know, and as you claim Israel knows, that Israel can't effectively attack Iran's nuclear weapons program, then you've got to assume everyone knows they can't and no one will take their threats seriously and none of the things you are predicting, closing the Strait of Hormuz, etc., will take place. If you really believe Israel's threats will be taken seriously, then you must also believe that people who know far more than you do about Israel's capabilities believe an Israeli strike against Iran has at least a reasonable chance of being successful.
US aid to Israel is nominal compared to what it costs us to station troops in South Korea or Japan or Europe, and since nearly all of it is given in the form of credits to buy military hardware and ammunition from US companies, creating US jobs and local, state and federal taxes, it represents net transfers of wealth within the US economy, whereas maintaining troops abroad produces transfers of wealth out of the US economy.
Israel has been the US' most important strategic ally for decades. At a time when the West seemed to be losing the Cold War, Israel's defeats of the Soviet client states, Egypt and Syria, in 1967 and 1973 forced the USSR out of the region, and allowed the US to lock them out with the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. If Israel had lost either of those wars, what other country could have resisted the Soviet's push to the Gulf and control of much or the world's oil supply? Clearly, if not for the Israelis, the US would have had to station large numbers of troops in the ME to stop the Soviet advance, but where would we have made our stand? In Jordan? In Iraq? In Saudi Arabia? And at what cost in American blood and treasure?
Not only has Israel long been our most important strategic ally and our aid to Israel nominal in comparison to what our other important allies cost us, but Israel in the only major US ally for which American soldiers have never had to bleed and die.
It's not what everyone know, it's what everyone expects everyone else to do. Or guesses they might.
In 1914, Serbia got stupid with Austria-Hungary because they knew the Russians would back their play. And A-H got stupid because the thought the Germans would back their play. And before anyone realized it, a stupid retaliation war over an assassination became a war that brought down empires.
The Iranians would LOVE for Israel to try to attack them. It will make them the heroes of the Islamic World. But what Obama is doing is actually kind of smart. (Damn you fugnuts for making me praise Obama). Using economic pressure on Iran to bring them to the negotiating table.
Not good enough for WhataYahoo, though. Bibi would start a war for no good reason.
uhm no, they won't be the heros anymore than any hollering you hear from sunni nations will be genuine....they'll go thru the motions then sigh in relief in private.