Refuting the "Unemployment Conspiracy" Nonsense

[KissMy]

The BLS employees were likely manipulated without them even knowing it. Phone numbers of high unemployment areas could have been reduced or eliminated from their pool of numbers they call to survey. The CIA can do many things that these BLS employees would never catch.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The BLS employees were likely manipulated without them even knowing it. Phone numbers of high unemployment areas could have been reduced or eliminated from their pool of numbers they call to survey. The CIA can do many things that these BLS employees would never catch.

That's another way of looking at it.

 

[Oddball]

Employers added a relatively modest 114,000 jobs in September, but the unemployment rate registered its biggest drop in nearly two years. What explains the disparity?

The answer lies in the way the two figures are calculated. The monthly payroll number—how many jobs are gained or added in a month—is based on a survey of about 141,000 businesses and government agencies. The unemployment rate and related statistics are based on an separate survey of about 60,000 individual households.
Related

The business survey is larger and generally more stable. ...

The household survey is more volatile. ... The survey's tally of people with jobs—based on counting the number of people who say they are working, rather than the business survey's count of employees ...

Despite the month-to-month disagreements, however, the two surveys line up well over the longer term. In fact, over the past year, they show almost identical jobs growth. That suggests the September household survey likely overstated the jump in employment, but the July and August surveys likely missed in the other direction. That is consistent with what the business survey is showing: slow, but relatively steady jobs growth.

Why Surveys Tell Two Stories - WSJ.com

OK...I can get my head around that.

Still, you have to admit that the historically low work force participation rate, coupled with the eyebrow-raising claim that 114,000 jobs = .2% drop in the UE rate, to go along with the regime's obsessive desire to try and make chicken salad out of economic chicken shit, on the back of a laughably abysmal debate permanence by Dear Leader, are going to raise the hackles of people who don't believe in coincidences in general, and those of republicans in particular.

I mean, c'mon....Even the Morning Schmoe crew at TASSNBC were giving these numbers the WTF.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here'S what I don't understand about the data.

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in August.
Twenty-six states recorded unemployment rate increases, 12 states and the District of
Columbia posted rate decreases, and 12 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Forty-two states and the District of Columbia registered
unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, seven states experienced increases,
and one had no change. The national jobless rate edged down to 8.1 percent from July
and was 1.0 percentage point lower than in August 2011.

First they say 26 States had an increase with 12 decreasing and 12 with no change.
Then the report backs up and says 42 states reported a decrease including DC.

NOT TO MENTION FEDERAL EMPLOYEE JOB LOSSES WOULD COME FROM THE D.C. DATA.

Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

 

[Katzndogz]

Once the work requirement was eliminated from getting welfare, tens of thousands of people stopped registering and looking for work.

 

[Synthaholic]

Since wingnuts argued for years that Bush's 5% UE was "near-full employment", I guess the current UE is only 2.8%

Thank you President Obama (praise be unto Him!)!!!!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Since wingnuts argued for years that Bush's 5% UE was "near-full employment", I guess the current UE is only 2.8%

Thank you President Obama (praise be unto Him!)!!!!

Low unemployment under Bush was justifiable because the economy was booming and if you weren't working was because you were to ******* lazy to do it.

 

[Toro]

My criticism of the data is legitimate, when that data does not match reality. I even said the unemployment would be down below 8% come election time.
Guess what they will go back up in December and January. How will you explain that when it happens?

It's not legitimate if you don't understand the methodologies and accuse the government of a cover-up. There are legitimate criticisms of how this data is constructed, and they don't have anything to do with political motivation.

I understand ONE ******* THING. The data submitted to the obama labor department does not match the reality of the situation.

Saying "the numbers don't match the reality" and "the Obama Administration is fixing the numbers" are two different things. The first one may be valid. The second one is not.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

It's not legitimate if you don't understand the methodologies and accuse the government of a cover-up. There are legitimate criticisms of how this data is constructed, and they don't have anything to do with political motivation.

I understand ONE ******* THING. The data submitted to the obama labor department does not match the reality of the situation.

Saying "the numbers don't match the reality" and "the Obama Administration is fixing the numbers" are two different things. The first one may be valid. The second one is not.

Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?

 

[Toro]

I understand ONE ******* THING. The data submitted to the obama labor department does not match the reality of the situation.

Saying "the numbers don't match the reality" and "the Obama Administration is fixing the numbers" are two different things. The first one may be valid. The second one is not.

Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?

Here is an analogy.

"There was a bank robbery in NC today. You would benefit from robbing a bank. Therefore, you robbed a bank."

^^^^^^
Your logic.

It's called a "false premise."

See how silly it sounds?

But that's what Republicans have been sounding like lately.

False premise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[xsited1]

Refuting the "Unemployment Conspiracy" Nonsense

I'm still unsure whether Welch was serious or joking. Anyway, the BLS fine print explains how dire the situation is even though the U3 number declined:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

And the UE6 number stayed at 14.7%. Bad news all around.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Saying "the numbers don't match the reality" and "the Obama Administration is fixing the numbers" are two different things. The first one may be valid. The second one is not.

Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?

Here is an analogy.

"There was a bank robbery in NC today. You would benefit from robbing a bank. Therefore, you robbed a bank."

^^^^^^
Your logic.

It's called a "false premise."

See how silly it sounds?

But that's what Republicans have been sounding like lately.

False premise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It doesn't work that way, but thats how the democrats make it work.
It's not a false premise
Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?
Do you think Romney would gain anything with a good economy and low unemployment?

 

[xsited1]

The BLS employees were likely manipulated without them even knowing it. Phone numbers of high unemployment areas could have been reduced or eliminated from their pool of numbers they call to survey. The CIA can do many things that these BLS employees would never catch.

That's certainly possible. I wouldn't put anything past our government, regardless of who is in charge. Anybody remember when an official with the IRS admitted in court that legal opponents of former President Bill Clinton were singled out for tax audits? Corruption runs deep.

 

[Ravi]

Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?

Here is an analogy.

"There was a bank robbery in NC today. You would benefit from robbing a bank. Therefore, you robbed a bank."

^^^^^^
Your logic.

It's called a "false premise."

See how silly it sounds?

But that's what Republicans have been sounding like lately.

False premise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It doesn't work that way, but thats how the democrats make it work.
It's not a false premise
Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?
Do you think Romney would gain anything with a good economy and low unemployment?

9/11 was an inside job.
Obama was born in Kenya.
The moon landing was fake.

dude, you get dumber by the day.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Refuting the "Unemployment Conspiracy" Nonsense

I'm still unsure whether Welch was serious or joking. Anyway, the BLS fine print explains how dire the situation is even though the U3 number declined:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

And the UE6 number stayed at 14.7%. Bad news all around.

1) Yes, of 873,000 new jobs 600,000 were part time.

2) Unemployment is 11.9% if you count those who who working when Barry took office.

3) and lets not forget 10,000 retire a day now!!!

 

[KissMy]

If you have any evidence whatsoever that the BLS is corrupt and cooking the books, please offer it. Otherwise, it's just silly speculative conjecture that we can put into the trash bin with the twoofers and birfers and should be ignored.

The BLS has manipulated the numbers for democrats before.

"GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC REPORTS: THINGS YOU'VE SUSPECTED BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK!"

The Clinton administration also reduced monthly household sampling from 60,000 to about 50,000, eliminating significant surveying in the inner cities. Despite claims of corrective statistical adjustments, reported unemployment among people of color declined sharply, and the piggybacked poverty survey showed a remarkable reversal in decades of worsening poverty trends.

Somehow, the Clinton administration successfully set into motion reestablishing the full 60,000 survey for the benefit of the current Bush administration's monthly household survey.

Up until the Clinton administration, a discouraged worker was one who was willing, able and ready to work but had given up looking because there were no jobs to be had. The Clinton administration dismissed to the non-reporting netherworld about five million discouraged workers who had been so categorized for more than a year. As of July 2004, the less-than-a-year discouraged workers total 504,000. Adding in the netherworld takes the unemployment rate up to about 12.5%.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Here is an analogy.

"There was a bank robbery in NC today. You would benefit from robbing a bank. Therefore, you robbed a bank."

^^^^^^
Your logic.

It's called a "false premise."

See how silly it sounds?

But that's what Republicans have been sounding like lately.

False premise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It doesn't work that way, but thats how the democrats make it work.
It's not a false premise
Who would gain more from fixing the unemployment numbers?
Who would gain more from a drop in the unemployment numbers?
Do you think Romney would gain anything with a good economy and low unemployment?

9/11 was an inside job.
Obama was born in Kenya.
The moon landing was fake.

dude, you get dumber by the day.

So you believe 9/11 was an inside job and the moon landing was fake?
What an idiot.

 

[Rozman]

How very fortunate for President Obama to get such a nice present
right before the election.They timed this thing pretty nicely.
I'm willing to bet the next report the number will be a bit lower to really push him over the top.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

How very fortunate for President Obama to get such a nice present
right before the election.They timed this thing pretty nicely.
I'm willing to bet the next report the number will be a bit lower to really push him over the top.

Wait until December they are going to be really surprise

 

[KissMy]

The BLS/DOL is a Democrat Department. Of course they are bias towards Obama & want him to win re-election.

The Department of Labor is a plank of the Democratic Party & was created by Democrats.

In 1903, the American Federation of Labor persuaded the Democratic Party to adopt a plank in its platform that pledged "the enactment of a law creating a Department of Labor, represented separately in the President's Cabinet." However, since Democrats controlled neither the White House nor Congress, their powers were limited. Democratic Congressmen regularly introduced bills for a separate Department of Labor, but none gained sufficient support to pass. In 1910 the Democrats won control of the House, and 15 union members were elected to Congress. Congressman William B. Wilson, formerly an officer of the United Mine Workers, became chairman of the House Committee on Labor. He championed creating an independent department. Representative William Sulzer of New York introduced a Department of Labor bill in 1912, which passed the House with little opposition. For a time it seemed that the bill might die in the Senate Committee on Education and Labor, but Senator Borah rescued it. The Senate passed the bill without a record being kept of the votes.