Real Clear Politics electoral map

[8537]

Just missing one thing: People actually voting.

you seriously think Obama is going to win Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico?

I dont. I doubt he is going to get PA and I consider that more probable.

I know you dont seem to think a record is important, but it is. People are not as happy with Obama as you seem to think.

I don't know about Nevada, but I think Michigan's a fairly certain bet. The ads against Romney in Michiga will write themselves, based on his own words.

PA and Colorado will be interesting, to say the least

 

[Conservative]

Just missing one thing: People actually voting.

you seriously think Obama is going to win Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico?

I dont. I doubt he is going to get PA and I consider that more probable.

I know you dont seem to think a record is important, but it is. People are not as happy with Obama as you seem to think.

I don't know about Nevada, but I think Michigan's a fairly certain bet. The ads against Romney in Michiga will write themselves, based on his own words.

PA and Colorado will be interesting, to say the least

I wouldn't be too sure about Michigan if I were you...

Obama is ahead, but his lead has shrunk, and there's still a lot of time left.

 

[8537]

Just missing one thing: People actually voting.

you seriously think Obama is going to win Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico?

I dont. I doubt he is going to get PA and I consider that more probable.

I know you dont seem to think a record is important, but it is. People are not as happy with Obama as you seem to think.

I don't know about Nevada, but I think Michigan's a fairly certain bet. The ads against Romney in Michiga will write themselves, based on his own words.

PA and Colorado will be interesting, to say the least

I wouldn't be too sure about Michigan if I were you...

Obama is ahead, but his lead has shrunk, and there's still a lot of time left.

But the Obama campaign and related SuperPACS's haven't yet spent any money reminding Michigan voters about Romney's comments and written words. Romney's going to find it *very* difficult to explain to working-class Michiganers why it was absolutely necessary to bailout one industry (finance) but a slap in the face of capitalist to bailout another (Auto).

 

[Ravage]

I used several maps like this to win 4 cheeseburger lunches from the CONZ I work with.

They apparently couldn't read electoral maps and polling data.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Just missing one thing: People actually voting.

you seriously think Obama is going to win Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and New Mexico?

I dont. I doubt he is going to get PA and I consider that more probable.

I know you dont seem to think a record is important, but it is. People are not as happy with Obama as you seem to think.

I don't know about Nevada, but I think Michigan's a fairly certain bet. The ads against Romney in Michiga will write themselves, based on his own words.

PA and Colorado will be interesting, to say the least

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws]Obama Claims He's Visited 57 States - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Artevelde]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

It's like time after time, the only people who really vote for the president are Ohioans.

 

[Artevelde]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

It's like time after time, the only people who really vote for the president are Ohioans.

Go Buckeyes!

 

[JoeB131]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

Besides the fact you said New Mexico twice, ummm, not really. New Mexico has gone to the Democrat four of the last five elections.

Let's make it simple. If you limit the discussion to the states the Democrats have won in the last five elections, consistantly, you are talking about 242 votes. So Obama needs only 28 more.

If you talk about the states they've won four out of five times - NM, IA and NH- that adds an additional 15, and you have 257. Obama only really needs 13 more to win.

Any of these states would put them over that. . -
Florida- (29) OH (18). NC (15) or VA (13). The combination of CO and NV would also do the trick.

 

[Claudette]

*Checks calendar*

Yup....It's still 7 months until the election.

Yup. Polls go up and polls go down.

Folks have a habit of seeing a poll one month and think it the holy grail.

LOL They should no better.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

Besides the fact you said New Mexico twice, ummm, not really. New Mexico has gone to the Democrat four of the last five elections.

Let's make it simple. If you limit the discussion to the states the Democrats have won in the last five elections, consistantly, you are talking about 242 votes. So Obama needs only 28 more.

If you talk about the states they've won four out of five times - NM, IA and NH- that adds an additional 15, and you have 257. Obama only really needs 13 more to win.

Any of these states would put them over that. . -
Florida- (29) OH (18). NC (15) or VA (13). The combination of CO and NV would also do the trick.

There's a lot that can happen in 7 months. I think any state that is within 10-12 points is very much in play.

You talk like Obama is a slam dunk away from a win already. Very short sighted.

 

[Artevelde]

Any of these states would put them over that. . -
Florida- (29) OH (18). NC (15) or VA (13). The combination of CO and NV would also do the trick.

Considering that the Democrats chances are much slimmer in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia than in Ohio, you've just confirmed what I said. But I understand that for the cognitively challenged like you that isn't obvious.

 

[Dragon]

One thing to bear in mind is that Obama hasn't really started serious campaigning yet. He's stuck his toe in the water, but up to now has mostly sat back and let the Republicans self-destruct (or, more charitably, waited to know who he needed to be running against). I expect we'll see the Obama campaign gearing up now that the GOP nominee is effectively decided.

An incumbent has huge advantages, but a challenger always polls better against him before the campaign really begins, barring some disaster muddying the waters during the campaign itself. We should expect a temporary tick-up for Romney right after the GOP convention. Apart from that, Obama is polling worse now than he ever will this election.

 

[Artevelde]

One thing to bear in mind is that Obama hasn't really started serious campaigning yet. He's stuck his toe in the water, but up to now has mostly sat back and let the Republicans self-destruct (or, more charitably, waited to know who he needed to be running against). I expect we'll see the Obama campaign gearing up now that the GOP nominee is effectively decided.

An incumbent has huge advantages, but a challenger always polls better against him before the campaign really begins, barring some disaster muddying the waters during the campaign itself. We should expect a temporary tick-up for Romney right after the GOP convention. Apart from that, Obama is polling worse now than he ever will this election.

True to an extent. On the other hand, the President is always somewhat on campaign.

 

[Conservative]

I used several maps like this to win 4 cheeseburger lunches from the CONZ I work with.

They apparently couldn't read electoral maps and polling data.

apparently neither can you.

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama + 1

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

President Obama + 5.3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Congress -68.4

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Congressional Job Approval

 

[Dragon]

There are some interesting things in that map besides Obama's obvious advantage. Start with an old story. Note that the blue areas are exactly where the Republican Party in its beginnings and all the way up until the 1960s held as its main areas of dominance: the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the West Coast. The red areas are mostly in the South and the mountain states. The South used to be the Democratic stronghold. The parties have switched places, definitely to the gain of the Democrats.

But now, interestingly enough, the GOP seems to be losing ground in part of its NEW stronghold, too. Floria, Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri are rated as tossups. Also, Colorado is leaning to Obama.

What I see happening here long-term is a demographic shift as a certain segment of the population -- religiously conservative and/or racially motivated culturally Southern whites -- declines as a percentage of the population. This was a very strong demographic in the 1960s when it was last reliably Democratic, but by acting to seize this demographic of voters after the Democrats threw them to the wolves in the '60s, the Republicans have pretty much alienated all of their old base, and also put themselves at a disadvantage when it comes to appealing to the new generation and to Hispanic voters. Even in the South, where that demographic remains strong for the moment, it's not as strong as it used to be, and the time is approaching when it won't be a majority anywhere.

Long-term, it looks to me like the GOP is in big trouble and will need to decide on a course of serious change in what the party stands for.

 

[8537]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
Obama: 196
Republican: 181
undecided: 161

Looks like a correct estimate to me.

Colorado and Michigan probably go to the Democrats, and I would venture that in the end the odds favour them in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Mexico too.

Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia are likely to go to the Republicans. And with Romney as the nominee I think they are likely to get Nevada too.

New Mexico and New Hampshire look like real toss-ups to me, but don't matter that much in the electoral college.

If all of the above is correct (big if of course) it all comes down to Ohio.

It's like time after time, the only people who really vote for the president are Ohioans.

Very true. If you live in a "solid" state your vote pretty much doesn't matter - and chances are that if your state entered the "Swing state" category, it would be because a landslide is predicted.

Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pa and Florida drive an insane amount of our presidential politics and therefore policy.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Romney had leads or was close in swing states in November/December. It's not surprising that he lost a lot during a tough primary. But Americans don't have long memories. The polls will tighten again as Obama has to start defending his weak and inept record. Just wait til he has to start defending his lies and his weak economy. This thing is going to turn around fast.

Not really. In fact, in all of his elections, Romney has started strong and grown weaker as people got to know him better.

Propaganda. I've seen documentaries. And Romney actually made ground to win his governorship. Nice try guy.

Yes he did. He ran as a Northeast liberal. He won as a Northeast liberal. He governed as a Northeast liberal.

Perhaps you're unaware of the fact that there is a liberal wing of the Republican party, that the wingnuts like to call RINOs. As a high school student, I once did letter stuffing for a Republican aspirant, John Lindsey. There's a reason that Olympia Snowe is bowing out. It's because the GOP has become a bunch of right wing, doctrinaire extremists, that she can no longer support.

 

[skookerasbil]

RCP average is bogus........2/3's of the polls are lefty polls. Of course Obama will be put in a good light.

Rasmussen is the shit..........the k00ks loved them in October 2008 when Obama pulled away from McCain. The k00ks couldnt post up the Rasmussen polls fast enough. Now of course, Rasmussen sucks to the k00ks.