At the state level, Clinton continues to lead in the swing states of
Ohio,
Florida,
Pennsylvania,
North Carolina,
Michigan,
New Hampshire and
Virginia, according to RealClear Politics polling averages.
The most recent national
RealClearPolitics polling average shows Clinton currently leading by 2.1 points when included in a four-way matchup against Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. (She
leads by 2.7 in a two-way election against Trump.)
Clinton also has a better overall record so far. Since both candidates clinched their respective party nominations, she has led Trump in the polling average for all but a brief period between the conventions.
Advantage: Clinton
The Electoral College
The Electoral College map favors Clinton, giving her more paths to reaching the necessary 270 electors than it does to Trump.
Like any Democratic nominee, Clinton starts with a baseline of blue states that gives her a head start over Trump. Some analysts put her starting point
as high as 242 electors, counting every state that’s gone Democratic in each presidential election since 1992
get ready to kiss your butt adios ..