Proof that Global Warming is bullshite

[sitarro]

I mean if last years above normal hurricane season meant Global Warming was fact than this years below normal season must counter that argument, right?


http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2006/hurricane-atlantic-2006-below-normal-season.htm

2006 Tropical Storm Season Now Below Normal

(21 August 2006) What a difference a year makes. After the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the 2006 season is now below normal.

As of yesterday (20 August) three tropical storms will have formed in the Atlantic in an "average" year, which is the same number that have formed this year so far. Because of multi-year averaging, that means that today (August 21) slightly more than three storms would have formed, making this year (statistically speaking) just below normal.

In the hurricane category, this year is decidedly below normal, with no hurricanes so far, while by this date 1.5 hurricanes have formed in the average of years 1944 though 2005.

Reason for the Season?: Cooler Sea Surface Temperatures
Part of the reason for the slow season is that tropical western Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are running about normal, if not slightly below normal (see graphic below, which shows SST departures from normal).


In contrast, at the same time last year SSTs in the same region were running well above normal.

The cooler SSTs in the Atlantic are not an isolated anomaly. In a research paper being published next month in Geophysical Research Letters, scientists will show that between 2003 and 2005, globally averaged temperatures in the upper ocean cooled rather dramatically, effectively erasing 20% of the warming that occurred over the previous 48 years.

Global Warming?
The slow hurricane season and the cooling sea surface temperatures might be somewhat surprising to the public. Media reports over the last year have suggested that, since global warming will only get worse, and last year's hurricane activity was supposedly due to global warming, this season might well be as bad as last season. But it appears that Mother Nature might have other plans.

The Rest of the Hurricane Season
With only 3 named storms compared to 9 on this date last year, it is nearly impossible at this late date to have a season anywhere near as busy as last season, which totaled 27 by the end of the year. The most recent prediction from the National Weather Service (see first graphic, above) is for there to be 12 to 15 named storms by December -- only half of last year's total. It now looks like that prediction might be too generous.

While it is still possible for this hurricane season to end up above normal in activity and reach that forecast, each day that passes without so much as a tropical 'depression' makes that target less and less likely.

 

[bobn]

don't worry, next strong hurricane season the media will use it to "reprove" global warming

 

[PsuedoGhost]

Global warming is a fact. The question is whether or not its manmade, or natural. Furthermore, whether or not this will continue on, or just stop as it has done so in the past.

 

[CharlestonChad]

Global warming is a fact. The question is whether or not its manmade, or natural. Furthermore, whether or not this will continue on, or just stop as it has done so in the past.

It shouldn't stop for thousands of years. The question is, will humans effect it affect global warming enough to overcome our rate of adaption and evolution?

 

[bobn]

we'll have a big problem if the rate of warming last century continues for 1000s of years.

 

[red states rule]

It shouldn't stop for thousands of years. The question is, will humans effect it affect global warming enough to overcome our rate of adaption and evolution?

Of course the global warming nuts have willing allies in the liberal media....



http://newsbusters.org/node/7158
Hannah Storm Promotes Left Wing Global Warming Talking Points On 'Early Show'
Posted by Michael Rule on August 24, 2006 - 16:23.
On Thursday’s "Early Show" on CBS, co-host Hannah Storm promoted the leftist hype about the link between global warming and hurricanes in a segment with global warming enthusiast, and author of the new book "The Ravaging Tide," Mike Tidwell. Storm acted as more of a facilitator than interviewer, asking leading questions, questions that assumed Tidwell’s comments were accurate, and allowed her guest to make some ridiculous statements that went unchallenged.

Storm’s feelings on the matter can best be summed up by her statement, "…this dependence on fossil fuels needs to be addressed. So what’s your recommendation?"

Mike Tidwell is the founder of the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, which describes itself as the "first grassroots, nonprofit organization dedicated exclusively to fighting global warming in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C." But Storm did not mention his activism, nor did she mention that nowhere in his official biography on the organization’s website, is there any mention of his scientific background; he is described as an "author and filmmaker." With the segment focused on Tidwell’s scientific conclusions, isn’t the fact that he is not a scientist relevant information for the viewer?

Yet, Storm introduced her segment, attempting to give enhanced credibility to Mr. Tidwell by noting he had predicted New Orleans would be devastated by a storm, and that he predicts global warming will cause more storms like Katrina:

"We're approaching the one-year anniversary of hurricane Katrina, and it's been three years since author Mike Tidwell predicted that a storm like Katrina would devastate New Orleans. In his new book, 'The Ravaging Tide,' he says that we'll see more catastrophic hurricanes thanks to global warming."

Did Mr. Tidwell predict when a hurricane was going to hit New Orleans? Given the fact that New Orleans is on the gulf coast, it is likely a hurricane would eventually hit the area, and it was again likely that eventually a powerful hurricane like Katrina would strike. The likelihood of a strong storm at some point in the future, combined with the fact that New Orleans sits several feet below sea level, isn’t the conclusion obvious?

Storm began the questioning by asking about the beginning of Tidwell’s book:

"You say in the first pages of the book, Katrina's arrival was as certain as tomorrow's sunrise. What made you so sure a disaster like that was on the horizon?"

At least in his response Tidwell did acknowledge that New Orleans is a city below sea level, but he blamed the disaster on man. He claimed that for the last 100 years the wetlands and barrier islands have been disappearing because of humans, and this created the conditions for hurricane Katrina to "slam into New Orleans like a plane into the World Trade Center:" This can at best be described as a terrible simile.

"Well, for the last hundred years, the wetlands and barrier islands in south Louisiana have been eroding and disappearing because of human activity, building of canals and other factors, a million acres of wetlands just disappeared in the last 100 years. And, this basically created a watery flight path for a Katrina-like storm to slam into New Orleans like a plane into the World Trade Center…"

Without missing a beat, or questioning Tidwell on this statement, Storm continued, noting that Senator Mary Landrieu had discussed coastal erosion before the storm hit, but afterwards everyone just focused on the levees. She editorialized:

"I remember talking to Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu before Katrina hit, that morning, and she was talking about coastal erosion and that being the big problem, then after Katrina hit, it was all about the levees. Everyone focused on the levees and the fact that the levees didn't hold. But, the levees weren't the only part of that picture."


Tidwell then predicted global warming will replicate Katrina all along the east coast.

"…I think the biggest lesson from Katrina a year later is that those same ingredients, you know, sort of a city below sea level, hit by a major hurricane, will be replicated by global warming all along our Atlantic and Gulf coastlines. That means, you know, lower Manhattan, for example, is right at sea level now. If we get 3 feet of sea level rise from global warming, much of lower Manhattan, much of, parts of Washington D.C., a lot of Miami, all our coastal cities will be below sea level like New Orleans. We're going to have to build levees to hold back the sea."

And so the point wasn’t lost, Hannah Storm, acting as cheerleader, chimed in:

"Outer Banks of North Carolina."

Tidwell continued:

"Outer Banks of North Carolina, so you're going to have cities that are below sea level because the seas rose because of global warming. And on top of that, hurricanes are becoming more intense…"

As Tidwell predicted a gloomy fate for America, that global warming will cause sea level to rise, thus causing cities on the east coast like New York City and Washington DC to fall below sea level, making them susceptible to New Orleans type destruction, an astonished Hannah Storm wanted to know how much time we have left, neglecting to press Tidwell on his conclusions based on this years mild hurricane season thus far:

"What sort of time crunch are we in here?"

Tidwell believed there is a ten year window to turn global warming around, and kick the fossil fuel habit and switch to clean energy.

Storm jumped on the alternative fuels bandwagon and noting the need to get off of fossil fuels if for no other reason than to combat "the rising" cost of gas, which according to the August 22 Early Show, has actually fallen 11 cents a gallon in the past 2 weeks:

"Right, we've been talking about a lot of these things, even with just the rising price of gas. For a number of reasons, this dependence on fossil fuels needs to be addressed. So, what's your recommendation?"

Storm wasn’t challenging Tidwell, she was merely asking him to gaze into his crystal ball and talk about global warming.

In response, Tidwell piously volunteered that he drives a hybrid car, a Toyota Prius, and that if every American followed his lead, America would cut gasoline consumption by 50%:

"Well, I drive a hybrid car, a Toyota Prius, gets about 50 miles to the gallon. If every car in America ten years from now had the same hybrid technology that's in my driveway right now, we would cut our use of gasoline in half as a nation, and that alone would reduce our CO2 emissions by about 25%."

This caused Hannah Storm to lament that Americans just don’t take global warming seriously:

"As a nation, are we really crying out for any kind of reform? Global warming is something that just doesn't seem to resonate with people."

However, Tidwell believes that people are starting to pay attention to Al Gore’s documentary on the subject and what’s happening with the weather:

"Well, I think it's starting to. Al Gore's film really, I think, has made a difference. A lot of people who were skeptical of all political stripes saw that film and really saw that this is real. I think that we're all seeing in our daily lives extreme, strange weather, even here in New York. Thunderstorms in January in Washington D.C., where I live. A tree almost hit the White House from an extreme storm just a couple of months ago. It's happening all around us. Sea levels are rising. Hurricanes we're seeing. Three of the six most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin in the last 150 years happened in a 52-day time span last Summer. That would be Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. We're seeing hurricanes become more intense. We're seeing other impacts from global warming…"

Some may agree with Tidwell, and in fact former newspaper columnist Ross Gelbspan is one who does, endorsing Tidwell’s new book. But, Gelbspan himself as interest in promoting the theory of global warming, as he once wrote in 1992 that global warming would cause baseball to stop playing day games, full quote can be read here.

With differing opinions on global warming, why did CBS feel it necessary to promote the scientific theories of someone who doesn’t even claim to be a scientist and ignore real scientists such as Dr. Roy Spencer, principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville or Patrick Michaels, research professor of environmental studies at the University of Virginia?

 

[Marshall]

Hannah should have stuck to ogling basketball jocks as they stepped out of the showers.

 

[Foxfyre]

Global warming has no doubt been occurring in a broad intermittant cyclical pattern for as long as there has been an Earth. Also global cooling has no doubt been occurring in a broad intermittant cyclical pattern for as long as there has been an Earth. I am reasonably confident that the average mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, on average, was a bit warmer in May than it was in April and will be warmer still in June, July, and August. And I'm pretty sure that we will begin to see a cooling trend in oh, mid to late September and October that will continue for several more months.

Global warming is not the problem. It has been a trend since the last 'little ice age' and, right now, it appears that it may have hit a peak and is leveling off for awhile and we will likely see a broad cooling trend for the next few years or decades. That will probably bring out more opportunists hoping to receive funding and/or make big bucks over an impending ice age. Right now I think the skeptics have made the better case re AGW or natural global warming as being a problem.

I think we should encourage study of our planet in all its aspects, including climate science, but I will continue to oppose imposed radical lifestyle change and/or massive regulation and policies that may prove to be far more harmful than a warmer climate.

 

[Chris]

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is one third higher than it was 200 years ago. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is at the highest level in the last 600,000 years, which is as far back as the Antarctic ice cores can be tested. Half of the North Polar Ice Cap has melted. The hottest years ever recorded are all within the last 10 years.

To make this a political issue is ridiculous.

 

[Foxfyre]

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is one third higher than it was 200 years ago. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is at the highest level in the last 600,000 years, which is as far back as the Antarctic ice cores can be tested. Half of the North Polar Ice Cap has melted. The hottest years ever recorded are all within the last 10 years.

To make this a political issue is ridiculous.

I agree that making this a political issue is ridiculous though your rationale doesn't really add up here.

As scientists after scientist is now abandoning the AGW band wagon, even some of the most staunch AGW proponents are agreeing that their models are not producing the results they expected and in fact, global warming is not occuring to any significant degree at this time. But they want to protect their funding, so they want to keep the alarm flags flying:

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Melting icebergs: The study predicts the IPCC's 0.3ºC temperature rise for the next decade may not happen
The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.

This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.

However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model. Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict - Telegraph

 

[Chris]

The article you quoted is based on a computer model.

Half the North Polar Ice Cap has melted in the last 40 years.

The ice cap ain't no computer model.

 

[Foxfyre]

The article you quoted is based on a computer model.

Half the North Polar Ice Cap has melted in the last 40 years.

The ice cap ain't no computer model.

Half the North Polar Ice Cap? It is true that there have been record decreases in the ice cap in recent years but that is based on the length of time that polar ice has been measured which isn't even a blink the large scale of things. But nowhere near half the ice cap melted and it is pretty well back to normal. You really need to bone up before making statements like that. All global warming theories are based on computer models for instance.

Recent cold snap helping Arctic sea ice, scientists find
Last Updated: Friday, February 15, 2008 | 10:17 AM ET
CBC News
There's an upside to the extreme cold temperatures northern Canadians have endured in the last few weeks: scientists say it's been helping winter sea ice grow across the Arctic, where the ice shrank to record-low levels last year.

Temperatures have stayed well in the -30s C and -40s C range since late January throughout the North, with the mercury dipping past -50 C in some areas.

Satellite images are showing that the cold spell is helping the sea ice expand in coverage by about 2 million square kilometres, compared to the average winter coverage in the previous three years.

"It's nice to know that the ice is recovering," Josefino Comiso, a senior research scientist with the Cryospheric Sciences Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland, told CBC News on Thursday.

"That means that maybe the perennial ice would not go down as low as last year."

Canadian scientists are also noticing growing ice coverage in most areas of the Arctic, including the southern Davis Strait and the Beaufort Sea.

"Clearly, we're seeing the ice coverage rebound back to more near normal coverage for this time of year," said Gilles Langis, a senior ice forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa. Recent cold snap helping Arctic sea ice, scientists find

 

[Swamp Fox]

Global warming is a fact. The question is whether or not its manmade, or natural. Furthermore, whether or not this will continue on, or just stop as it has done so in the past.

Yep, it's a fact. It's caused by that big yellow thing in the sky called the sun. You remember that? It's the thing that HEATS the planets in our solar system.

Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

Sun Blamed for Warming of Earth and Other Worlds | LiveScience

 

[Chris]

Half the North Polar Ice Cap? It is true that there have been record decreases in the ice cap in recent years but that is based on the length of time that polar ice has been measured which isn't even a blink the large scale of things. But nowhere near half the ice cap melted and it is pretty well back to normal. You really need to bone up before making statements like that. All global warming theories are based on computer models for instance.

50% of the North Polar Ice Cap has melted since the 1950's. This is not in question.

NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News Fall 2007

 

[Chris]

Global warming has no doubt been occurring in a broad intermittant cyclical pattern for as long as there has been an Earth. Also global cooling has no doubt been occurring in a broad intermittant cyclical pattern for as long as there has been an Earth. I am reasonably confident that the average mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, on average, was a bit warmer in May than it was in April and will be warmer still in June, July, and August. And I'm pretty sure that we will begin to see a cooling trend in oh, mid to late September and October that will continue for several more months.

Global warming is not the problem. It has been a trend since the last 'little ice age' and, right now, it appears that it may have hit a peak and is leveling off for awhile and we will likely see a broad cooling trend for the next few years or decades. That will probably bring out more opportunists hoping to receive funding and/or make big bucks over an impending ice age. Right now I think the skeptics have made the better case re AGW or natural global warming as being a problem.

I think we should encourage study of our planet in all its aspects, including climate science, but I will continue to oppose imposed radical lifestyle change and/or massive regulation and policies that may prove to be far more harmful than a warmer climate.

I am so glad you brought up the "little ice age." Do you know what caused the little ice age? The eruption of volcanoes near the equator put so much dust into the atmosphere that it blocked sunlight and caused the earth to cool. Why is it that no one disputes that volcanic dust can cool the earth?

Because the oil companies don't own volcanoes.

 

[SpidermanTuba]

I mean if last years above normal hurricane season meant Global Warming was fact than this years below normal season must counter that argument, right?
.

You're right. If last year's season did mean global warming was a fact, this year's season would counter that. But last year's season doesn't mean global warming is a fact. Your premise is wrong.

 

[editec]

I mean if last years above normal hurricane season meant Global Warming was fact than this years below normal season must counter that argument, right?

Apparently you DO need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

 

[Foxfyre]

50% of the North Polar Ice Cap has melted since the 1950's. This is not in question.

NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News Fall 2007

Unproved even from your own source. And the quite credible source I linked shows that the sea ice returned to near normal over this past winter. We haven't been keeping records of arctic ice for very long actually, but according to history, the northern passage has been open to shipping from time to time indicating that retreat of sea ice is both cyclical and normal.

 

[Foxfyre]

I am so glad you brought up the "little ice age." Do you know what caused the little ice age? The eruption of volcanoes near the equator put so much dust into the atmosphere that it blocked sunlight and caused the earth to cool. Why is it that no one disputes that volcanic dust can cool the earth?

Because the oil companies don't own volcanoes.

You'll have a difficult time using any credible and non-biased source to show that volcanic eruptions triggered the "little ice age". You can find credible sources that attribute it to unusually low sunspot activity during the centuries of colder weather which, by the way, created severe hardships, famine, and many deaths. In cyclical weather patterns, it is pretty well undisputed that warmer is better than colder, and this should help us understand that humankind is quite well adapted to adjust to a warmer climate should that be necessary. As the whole warming trend appears to have leveled off over the last several years and may actually be reversing at this time, there seems little cause for panic one way or the other.

I personally lobby for world governments to focus on ways to help humans adjust productively to normal climate cycles and to improve their enviroment through prosperity. Only prosperous nations have the resources and impulses to actually improve their environment. But many policies governments are attempted to mandate with all this global warming nonsense can easily doom hundreds of milllions of people to more generations of crushing poverty.

And I personally do not care to make major lifestyle changes that diminish my quality of life and/or that diminish opportunity and quality of life for others based on bogus science. I prefer to look at all the science out there and make policy based on the best available. Right now, the science disputing human created global warming seems to have the edge except for those who benefit financially from a crisis and those who have drunk the kool-aid.