Since I don't really understand politics, I'm never sure when political rhetoric is supposed to be believed, and when it's nothing more than professional wrestling for political geeks.
Anyway, the fact remains: While Presidents will do this and that relatively minor thing on the economy, and then it's tempered and changed by Congress, macroeconomics does not turn on a dime. There are myriad external forces at work at our economy, from spending to Fed actions, from tax cuts & increases to energy, from overseas Treasury purchases to ebbs and flows in technology.
In short, Presidents get far too much credit (although they'll take it all) and blame (although they'll deny it all) for economics and markets. To wit:
It ain't the President. It's far more complicated than that.
But I'll bet we know that.
Anyway, the fact remains: While Presidents will do this and that relatively minor thing on the economy, and then it's tempered and changed by Congress, macroeconomics does not turn on a dime. There are myriad external forces at work at our economy, from spending to Fed actions, from tax cuts & increases to energy, from overseas Treasury purchases to ebbs and flows in technology.
In short, Presidents get far too much credit (although they'll take it all) and blame (although they'll deny it all) for economics and markets. To wit:
- We've had zillions of new jobs under Biden, but that's primarily because we had lost so many when he showed up. The Fed put the brakes on the QE money train, so the GDP has been middling and there's roughly a 50% chance we'll see a recession within a year as consumers continue to spend like their fucking lives depend on it, and that can't last forever.
- Trump inherited a decent economy and a falling unemployment rate, not to mention trillions in stimulus from the Fed. While he claims "his" economy was "the greatest ever", it was only at 2.3% when COVID, so as usual, he's lying. Overall the economy was fairly good, while being tempered by the massive Fed support, and high government spending (like Biden).
- Obama gets an "Incomplete" on "his" economy, because inheriting the Meltdown forced him to do the only thing he COULD do, and that was stand back and let the Treasury and the Fed do whatever the hell they could to save our sorry asses from our own gluttonous idiocy. His record on the economy is fine, but he wasn't all that involved.
- Dubya left us with the Meltdown, after Greenspan resolutely refused to regulate derivative markets and even the fucking ratings agencies were along for the high fee ride. Was the Meltdown his fault? Not really, since Clinton was the one who opened the barn door when he repealed Glass Steagall. Still, Dubya blankly celebrated his phony economy until it shit the bed.
- Clinton had the massive advantage of the tech explosion, which then became the debt bubble and crashed in the early 2000's. And again, his repeal of Glass Steagall was just the kind of deregulation the financial industry needed to fuck us over big time, and we're STILL feeling the effects of THAT one.
It ain't the President. It's far more complicated than that.
But I'll bet we know that.