Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there

[BluePhantom]

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

 

[jillian]

The newest CNN Ohio Poll also show Obama at +4 in Ohio.

Nationally, Gallup shows an LV tie, but Obama +5 in RV. Good for Obama, since the LV/RV discrepancy always tightens up nearer the election.

You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. The LV/RV discrepancy tightens nearer the election? Good Christ. That's because as the election nears everyone stops doing RV polls because LV are far more accurate and RV polls show an inherent bias of a good 4%-6% toward the Democrat. They tighten to the LV poll. I have been explaining all this in extreme detail for the last four months. What a fucking knob.

look Mamooth.....let me do your job for you since you are failing so miserably. If you want to use the polls to support the idea of an Obama victory here are the point you want to come with:

1) As quickly as Romney reversed the tide with his win in Denver, Obama can shift it just as quickly with wins next week and the week after.

2) Next week's debate format favors Obama because a) it's a town hall format where he can use his superior charm to show greater connection to the people than Romney can, and b) he knows good and well that after last week's debacle he had better bring the thunder (and he will).

3) Despite Romney recent surge, even if Romney manages to take Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, he still needs one more state between Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado to win the election. Of the three Iowa is probably the most reasonable and Rasmussen has Obama +2 there right now in the only post-debate poll. Colorado is very tight but a good Obama showing over the next two debates can put Colorado safely away, and Nevada is somewhat irrelevant because it's highly unlikely that Colorado will go one way and Nevada will go the other.

Unreal.....now I have to provide you with decent argument so you can sound somewhat intelligent. "Things tighten between LV and RV polls as the election nears"....MY FUCKING GOD!

thank you. i feel much better.

 

[jillian]

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

meanwhile he's dead on. and he's been very straightforward about how things are trending.

 

[BluePhantom]

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

meanwhile he's dead on. and he's been very straightforward about how things are trending.

Difference. He calls the trends after they happen and I have been calling them before they happen...and I have been closer.

 

[BluePhantom]

You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. The LV/RV discrepancy tightens nearer the election? Good Christ. That's because as the election nears everyone stops doing RV polls because LV are far more accurate and RV polls show an inherent bias of a good 4%-6% toward the Democrat. They tighten to the LV poll. I have been explaining all this in extreme detail for the last four months. What a fucking knob.

look Mamooth.....let me do your job for you since you are failing so miserably. If you want to use the polls to support the idea of an Obama victory here are the point you want to come with:

1) As quickly as Romney reversed the tide with his win in Denver, Obama can shift it just as quickly with wins next week and the week after.

2) Next week's debate format favors Obama because a) it's a town hall format where he can use his superior charm to show greater connection to the people than Romney can, and b) he knows good and well that after last week's debacle he had better bring the thunder (and he will).

3) Despite Romney recent surge, even if Romney manages to take Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, he still needs one more state between Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado to win the election. Of the three Iowa is probably the most reasonable and Rasmussen has Obama +2 there right now in the only post-debate poll. Colorado is very tight but a good Obama showing over the next two debates can put Colorado safely away, and Nevada is somewhat irrelevant because it's highly unlikely that Colorado will go one way and Nevada will go the other.

Unreal.....now I have to provide you with decent argument so you can sound somewhat intelligent. "Things tighten between LV and RV polls as the election nears"....MY FUCKING GOD!

thank you. i feel much better.

Well as thrilled as I am with the way things are going, this aint over by a long shot. I would warn my fellow Republicans not to get too comfortable right now. Things are going our way but Romney needs to finish the deal. he is perfectly able to do that, but Obama won't be a sitting duck like he was last time.

 

[AceRothstein]

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

i was just on his site and didn't see that.

link?

It is under the state polls for Florida on the right side of his main page.

 

[jillian]

look Mamooth.....let me do your job for you since you are failing so miserably. If you want to use the polls to support the idea of an Obama victory here are the point you want to come with:

1) As quickly as Romney reversed the tide with his win in Denver, Obama can shift it just as quickly with wins next week and the week after.

2) Next week's debate format favors Obama because a) it's a town hall format where he can use his superior charm to show greater connection to the people than Romney can, and b) he knows good and well that after last week's debacle he had better bring the thunder (and he will).

3) Despite Romney recent surge, even if Romney manages to take Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, he still needs one more state between Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado to win the election. Of the three Iowa is probably the most reasonable and Rasmussen has Obama +2 there right now in the only post-debate poll. Colorado is very tight but a good Obama showing over the next two debates can put Colorado safely away, and Nevada is somewhat irrelevant because it's highly unlikely that Colorado will go one way and Nevada will go the other.

Unreal.....now I have to provide you with decent argument so you can sound somewhat intelligent. "Things tighten between LV and RV polls as the election nears"....MY FUCKING GOD!

thank you. i feel much better.

Well as thrilled as I am with the way things are going, this aint over by a long shot. I would warn my fellow Republicans not to get too comfortable right now. Things are going our way but Romney needs to finish the deal. he is perfectly able to do that, but Obama won't be a sitting duck like he was last time.

romney is able to seal the deal if we forget everything he's ever said.

but i was saying what you were a week ago... it's going to be a very close race and it's going to come down to the electoral map. so if obama can stop the bleeding...and i think he can... both because biden is very good at this type of thing...and because mitt is very awkward in town hall type groups.

both men have had very strong and very weak debate performances (remember his tantrum when someone used his time during the primaries).

 

[BluePhantom]

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

i was just on his site and didn't see that.

link?

It is under the state polls for Florida on the right side of his main page.

Funny. Last time I tried to access Silver's pollster rankings he had pulled them after getting hammered for refusing to release his ranking formula regarding "pollster introduced error" and giving statistical boosts to organizations that belonged to his pet organization.

 

[Ravi]

Ok, so you're not on crack.

Yes you are, if you think a single poll that says what YOU want to hear is more up to date and accurate than an average of multiple polls.

You're on crack if you think a single debate can give Romney the White House. The guy is a total loser.

It's a life time of character development that will give Romney the White House.

lol, what character would that be? The guy is a weasel that changes his position quicker than most people change their underwear.

 

[Ravi]

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

This is probably true. And telling, since Floriduh is mostly a red state. Goes to show how shaky Mitten is as a candidate.

 

[Ravi]

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

you should keep track of whats being said and responded to, this is what I responded too;

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

"POLL" singular....and here is the 'polls' thats ravis claim, of a 4 pt lead, hence my response.;

UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 3.5 45 49 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 49 46 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 3.3 46 47 Obama +1

And for a guy using a 'ace rothstein' moniker you should care, its all about the numbers.

they didn't post their sampling, they posted what ethnic demographic they polled though, pretty thick too, but as far as how many dems, reps or indies? I cannot seem to find it, so to me its garbage.and so is ravis claim.

Dude. I said poll, not polls. Quit being so hysterical.

 

[Ravi]

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

And yet his track record is stellar. Much better than yours.

 

[Lakhota]

Sooo, why are other pollsters confused by this pollster pulling out of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia?

Suffolk University Pollster David Paleologos: Obama Can't Win North Carolina, Virginia and Florida

 

[BluePhantom]

romney is able to seal the deal if we forget everything he's ever said.

Your bias is getting in the way Jillian. Obama has made just as many bullshit claims. let's be fair now.

but i was saying what you were a week ago... it's going to be a very close race and it's going to come down to the electoral map. so if obama can stop the bleeding...and i think he can... both because biden is very good at this type of thing...and because mitt is very awkward in town hall type groups.

I think he can too. I think Ryan will win tomorrow night's debate on charm and statistics, but I think after the Debacle in Denver Biden will be too well coached to provide a "gaffe of doom". I expect the VP debate to be largely irrelevant. A half a point swing either way at most unless some says something just outrageously stupid (which I don't anticipate).

I agree 100% that all things favor Obama in their next debate. Obama has charm and he can look at the average Joe (which is who he will be addressing in a town hall format), give him a smile, and connect well. I am not sure Romney can do that. Even if he can I don't think he can do it as well as Obama. That's going to be big because expectations after Denver are such that even a moderate or small Obama win may be perceived as a crushing victory and that will reverse things quick.

both men have had very strong and very weak debate performances (remember his tantrum when someone used his time during the primaries).

Yes....but the third debate is more traditional and that will again favor Romney AND the subject is foreign policy where Romney has already been positioning himself and he can use recent events to hammer home points that will resonate with the voter. How is Obama going to respond when Romney asks why there are suddenly Islamic flags flying over our embassies? Whether it's a bullshit tactic, a sound tactic, truth, or horseshit...it WILL resonate and Obama isn't going to have much of an answer for that.

My guess is that Ryan will score a thin victory tomorrow resulting in a 0.5% swing, Obama will battle back next week and stop the bleeding and reverse the trend by about 2% and the final debate will tell the tale....and don't forget...there will be one more attempt to scandalize the other from each side between now and then.

Keep in mind this has nothing to do with "right" and "wrong"....it's all about strategy, politics, and how to win an election.

 

[BluePhantom]

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

And yet his track record is stellar. Much better than yours.

You might want to go back and look over my other polling threads. I would challenge that statement with total comfort.

 

[Ravi]

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

And yet his track record is stellar. Much better than yours.

You might want to go back and look over my other polling threads. I would challenge that statement with total comfort.

From what I understand, Silver called 99.9% of the last two election cycles correctly. Is your track record that good?

 

[BluePhantom]

And yet his track record is stellar. Much better than yours.

You might want to go back and look over my other polling threads. I would challenge that statement with total comfort.

From what I understand, Silver called 99.9% of the last two election cycles correctly. Is your track record that good?

Yes actually it was....and honestly Silver was not nearly that close despite his dream that he was. Check here and click the indicated links just for the most recent. Everything that has been happening I called well before the fact.

 

[Trajan]

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

you should keep track of whats being said and responded to, this is what I responded too;




"POLL" singular....and here is the 'polls' thats ravis claim, of a 4 pt lead, hence my response.;

UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 3.5 45 49 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 49 46 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 3.3 46 47 Obama +1

And for a guy using a 'ace rothstein' moniker you should care, its all about the numbers.

they didn't post their sampling, they posted what ethnic demographic they polled though, pretty thick too, but as far as how many dems, reps or indies? I cannot seem to find it, so to me its garbage.and so is ravis claim.

Are you completely ignoring that Ravi used the word poll and not polls?

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

She mentioned one poll showing Obama up 4 and it was in your link. All I could think of is that you are confusing her mentioning of Paleologos. He is the pollster from Suffolk who is already calling Florida for Romney, despite not polling that state.

The sampling is in this link. I'm sure you'll think it is skewed. UNF poll reveals slight lead for Obama in Florida | Election 2012 - Home

thats not what her link led too, hello, go check. unless she changed it.

and again you or ravi, as a comeback are hanging your hat on one poll as a refutation, and the history of that schools polling results? so gallup and ras out north fla U in.... in, got it, yea you run with that....

so here, should I run with this?

Times/Bay News 9/Herald exclusive Florida poll: Romney 51, Obama 44 - Tampa Bay Times


no, I wont, why? a) no sample, b) its a media poll, I never put stock in a media poll and yes that goes for colleges/instutuions as well.

 

[Trajan]

And yet his track record is stellar. Much better than yours.

You might want to go back and look over my other polling threads. I would challenge that statement with total comfort.

From what I understand, Silver called 99.9% of the last two election cycles correctly. Is your track record that good?

"call' as in how exactly?

 

[Trajan]

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

you should keep track of whats being said and responded to, this is what I responded too;

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

"POLL" singular....and here is the 'polls' thats ravis claim, of a 4 pt lead, hence my response.;

UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 3.5 45 49 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 49 46 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 3.3 46 47 Obama +1

And for a guy using a 'ace rothstein' moniker you should care, its all about the numbers.

they didn't post their sampling, they posted what ethnic demographic they polled though, pretty thick too, but as far as how many dems, reps or indies? I cannot seem to find it, so to me its garbage.and so is ravis claim.

Dude. I said poll, not polls. Quit being so hysterical.

no shit and your poll isn't something I would hang my hat on, even if you hate hats....