Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there

[mamooth]

The newest CNN Ohio Poll also show Obama at +4 in Ohio.

Nationally, Gallup shows an LV tie, but Obama +5 in RV. Good for Obama, since the LV/RV discrepancy always tightens up nearer the election.

And those polls still include data from Obama's worst days. The Thu/Fri polls have Romney doing well, but later polls don't. As the Thu/Fri data falls off the running averages, Romney's numbers fall. A week from now, the conservatives will be back to screaming how all the polls have suddenly flipflopped back to "rigged" again.

 

[depotoo]

Florida Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45 | TPM LiveWire

let's look at that poll, shall we?

Are you a registered Democrat, Republican, No Partisan Affiliation or something else?Democrat 39% Republican 31% No Partisan Affiliation/Other 30%

 

[Trajan]

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

 

[AceRothstein]

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

OK, that's an even bigger crock than the OP's claim.

 

[Politico]

Who?

 

[Sallow]

Ok, so you're not on crack.

Yes you are, if you think a single poll that says what YOU want to hear is more up to date and accurate than an average of multiple polls.

You're on crack if you think a single debate can give Romney the White House. The guy is a total loser.

you really do suck at this.

That single debate completely shifted the vast majority of polls... yet you cling to the 1 that says what you want to hear.

Yeah..by a point or 2.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

You're on crack if you think a single debate can give Romney the White House. The guy is a total loser.

you really do suck at this.

That single debate completely shifted the vast majority of polls... yet you cling to the 1 that says what you want to hear.

Yeah..by a point or 2.

How do you explain the 18 point shift among women if we only give 2 points of that to the debate?

 

[Trajan]

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

 

[Avatar4321]

Ok, so you're not on crack.

Yes you are, if you think a single poll that says what YOU want to hear is more up to date and accurate than an average of multiple polls.

You're on crack if you think a single debate can give Romney the White House. The guy is a total loser.

It's a life time of character development that will give Romney the White House.

 

[Avatar4321]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

I highly doubt CA shifts... unless there is a quake.

Or $6 gas prices...

 

[AceRothstein]

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

 

[Trajan]

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

you should keep track of whats being said and responded to, this is what I responded too;

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

"POLL" singular....and here is the 'polls' thats ravis claim, of a 4 pt lead, hence my response.;

UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 3.5 45 49 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 49 46 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 3.3 46 47 Obama +1

And for a guy using a 'ace rothstein' moniker you should care, its all about the numbers.

they didn't post their sampling, they posted what ethnic demographic they polled though, pretty thick too, but as far as how many dems, reps or indies? I cannot seem to find it, so to me its garbage.and so is ravis claim.

 

[AceRothstein]

Oh I see so the averages don't count anymore?

ok then. since you want to hang your hat on that, please post the sampling they used, their history of polling etc.....

Um, he was talking about 1 particular poll. That particular poll pushed the average back into a tie, before that it was a small Romney lead.

I'm not hanging my hat on anything and don't have the time to pick apart any poll. Earlier in this thread I mentioned that I expect Florida to be incredibly close either way, probably within a 1.5% margin no matter who wins.

you should keep track of whats being said and responded to, this is what I responded too;

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

"POLL" singular....and here is the 'polls' thats ravis claim, of a 4 pt lead, hence my response.;

UNF 10/1 - 10/9 653 LV 3.5 45 49 Obama +4
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 49 47 Romney +2
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 49 46 Romney +3
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 890 LV 3.3 46 47 Obama +1

And for a guy using a 'ace rothstein' moniker you should care, its all about the numbers.

they didn't post their sampling, they posted what ethnic demographic they polled though, pretty thick too, but as far as how many dems, reps or indies? I cannot seem to find it, so to me its garbage.and so is ravis claim.

Are you completely ignoring that Ravi used the word poll and not polls?

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

She mentioned one poll showing Obama up 4 and it was in your link. All I could think of is that you are confusing her mentioning of Paleologos. He is the pollster from Suffolk who is already calling Florida for Romney, despite not polling that state.

The sampling is in this link. I'm sure you'll think it is skewed. UNF poll reveals slight lead for Obama in Florida | Election 2012 - Home

 

[BluePhantom]

The newest CNN Ohio Poll also show Obama at +4 in Ohio.

Nationally, Gallup shows an LV tie, but Obama +5 in RV. Good for Obama, since the LV/RV discrepancy always tightens up nearer the election.

You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. The LV/RV discrepancy tightens nearer the election? Good Christ. That's because as the election nears everyone stops doing RV polls because LV are far more accurate and RV polls show an inherent bias of a good 4%-6% toward the Democrat. They tighten to the LV poll. I have been explaining all this in extreme detail for the last four months. What a fucking knob.

 

[jillian]

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

no. but he's telling the hacks what they want to hear. that's all they care about.

 

[BluePhantom]

Poll today shows Obama with a four point lead in Floriduh.

Paleologos doesn't seem very bright.

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

 

[AceRothstein]

really? where?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

 

[jillian]

Right in your link. It says UNF on that line.

Ahhh yes.....the University of North Florida. They have such in depth polling experience. They are a shining bastion of polling expertise. What did they do? Poll the Theta Chi house? Give me a break. Jeez.

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

i was just on his site and didn't see that.

link?

 

[BluePhantom]

The newest CNN Ohio Poll also show Obama at +4 in Ohio.

Nationally, Gallup shows an LV tie, but Obama +5 in RV. Good for Obama, since the LV/RV discrepancy always tightens up nearer the election.

You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. The LV/RV discrepancy tightens nearer the election? Good Christ. That's because as the election nears everyone stops doing RV polls because LV are far more accurate and RV polls show an inherent bias of a good 4%-6% toward the Democrat. They tighten to the LV poll. I have been explaining all this in extreme detail for the last four months. What a fucking knob.

look Mamooth.....let me do your job for you since you are failing so miserably. If you want to use the polls to support the idea of an Obama victory here are the point you want to come with:

1) As quickly as Romney reversed the tide with his win in Denver, Obama can shift it just as quickly with wins next week and the week after.

2) Next week's debate format favors Obama because a) it's a town hall format where he can use his superior charm to show greater connection to the people than Romney can, and b) he knows good and well that after last week's debacle he had better bring the thunder (and he will).

3) Despite Romney recent surge, even if Romney manages to take Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, he still needs one more state between Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado to win the election. Of the three Iowa is probably the most reasonable and Rasmussen has Obama +2 there right now in the only post-debate poll. Colorado is very tight but a good Obama showing over the next two debates can put Colorado safely away, and Nevada is somewhat irrelevant because it's highly unlikely that Colorado will go one way and Nevada will go the other.

Unreal.....now I have to provide you with decent argument so you can sound somewhat intelligent. "Things tighten between LV and RV polls as the election nears"....MY FUCKING GOD!