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Opinion polling for the Israeli legislative election 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
All 13 polls from 03/10 to 03/13 indicate that Netanyahu's Likud is losing ground, but a 2-3 seat difference can still very much be a statistical tie. The Zionist Camp / Labor Party has a tenuous lead, but this can again change overnight.
That being said, the trend is very much toward the opposition to Netanyahu. If these numbers hold, then Herzog will get first crack at trying to form a coalition government. If he fails, then Bibi could also try a three-way coalition. This possiblity does exist.
Please look at the polls and notice how MANY parties are being represented. There are 15 parties that, according to polls, are going to get some seats in the Knesset. 2 parties formed after the 2013 elections.
The average of those 13 polls that came in over three days time is 21.2 seats in the Knesset for Bibi's Likud and 24.6 for Labor/Hatnuah, a +3.5 aggregate average out of 120 total Knesset seats, or 17.5% for Likud and 20.5% for Labor/Hanuah. That's not enough for either, but whoever ends up with the higher raw total of seats will get first crack at building a viable coalition. And a +3 margin is right or under the edge of most MoEs, so this could be closer than people realize. Wait and see.
You can see a noticeable shift in the polling that was released from 03/4 to 03/8 vis-a-vis polling released from 03/10 to 03/13. In the 7 polls from 03/4 to 03/8, Likud lead in one poll and was tied with the opposition in 4 polls. But this last week, it trailed consistently in all 13 polls. And of the seven polls from yesterday, Likud is behind by 4 seats in 4 polls and by 5 seats in one poll. That's not good news for Netanyahu, whose party easily won with a wide lead in 2013.
Now, one poll can be wrong. But 13 polls all showing one side with a lead usually means that that side really DOES have the lead. It's the margin that is still so slim that, imo, makes this contest still a tossup. No one should be betting on any horses yet. Memories of Dewey-Truman 1948 remind us that on election day, many things can happen.
That's not propaganda for Bibi, because I am certainly not a huge fan of his: it's just electoral fact.
One thing for Americans: look at that list of 15 parties. The reason why Israel has so many splitter parties is because it DOES NOT have an electoral college.
BTW, yesterday was the last day, according to Israeli election law, that an an election poll for the 2015 parliamentary cycle can be released. So, there will be no more polls.
Hope this information helps.
Opinion polling for the Israeli legislative election 2015 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
All 13 polls from 03/10 to 03/13 indicate that Netanyahu's Likud is losing ground, but a 2-3 seat difference can still very much be a statistical tie. The Zionist Camp / Labor Party has a tenuous lead, but this can again change overnight.
That being said, the trend is very much toward the opposition to Netanyahu. If these numbers hold, then Herzog will get first crack at trying to form a coalition government. If he fails, then Bibi could also try a three-way coalition. This possiblity does exist.
Please look at the polls and notice how MANY parties are being represented. There are 15 parties that, according to polls, are going to get some seats in the Knesset. 2 parties formed after the 2013 elections.
The average of those 13 polls that came in over three days time is 21.2 seats in the Knesset for Bibi's Likud and 24.6 for Labor/Hatnuah, a +3.5 aggregate average out of 120 total Knesset seats, or 17.5% for Likud and 20.5% for Labor/Hanuah. That's not enough for either, but whoever ends up with the higher raw total of seats will get first crack at building a viable coalition. And a +3 margin is right or under the edge of most MoEs, so this could be closer than people realize. Wait and see.
You can see a noticeable shift in the polling that was released from 03/4 to 03/8 vis-a-vis polling released from 03/10 to 03/13. In the 7 polls from 03/4 to 03/8, Likud lead in one poll and was tied with the opposition in 4 polls. But this last week, it trailed consistently in all 13 polls. And of the seven polls from yesterday, Likud is behind by 4 seats in 4 polls and by 5 seats in one poll. That's not good news for Netanyahu, whose party easily won with a wide lead in 2013.
Now, one poll can be wrong. But 13 polls all showing one side with a lead usually means that that side really DOES have the lead. It's the margin that is still so slim that, imo, makes this contest still a tossup. No one should be betting on any horses yet. Memories of Dewey-Truman 1948 remind us that on election day, many things can happen.
That's not propaganda for Bibi, because I am certainly not a huge fan of his: it's just electoral fact.
One thing for Americans: look at that list of 15 parties. The reason why Israel has so many splitter parties is because it DOES NOT have an electoral college.
BTW, yesterday was the last day, according to Israeli election law, that an an election poll for the 2015 parliamentary cycle can be released. So, there will be no more polls.
Hope this information helps.
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