Poller Coaster

[candycorn]

Yeah, I stole the title from Pod Save America.

The latest has Harris up in NC but Trump up in Pennsylvania. Interesting.

 

[ThisIsMe]

Yeah, I stole the title from Pod Save America.

View attachment 999905

The latest has Harris up in NC but Trump up in Pennsylvania. Interesting.

Don’t all candidates get a bump after their conventions?

 

[Godboy]

Yeah, I stole the title from Pod Save America.

View attachment 999905

The latest has Harris up in NC but Trump up in Pennsylvania. Interesting.

The question is, are these polls that have Kamala up, accurate? That seems unlikely...

"How did the polls get worse from 2016 to 2020, with everyone watching? In the aftermath of Trump’s surprise 2016 victory, the public-opinion-research industry concluded that the problem was educational polarization. If pollsters had made a point of including enough white people without college degrees in their samples, they wouldn’t have underestimated Trump so badly."

The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers

Pollsters think they’ve learned from their mistakes in 2020. Of course, they thought that last time too.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Maxdeath]

I do love the democrat cult. They were pronouncing Hillary was the new president because all the polls showed her as the guaranteed winner. After she lost they all went on a rant for years over how polls were unreliable, could not be trusted, they could be skewed to make them come out anyway you wanted. Now suddenly if Harris is ahead they are the be all and end all. When they showed that people thought the economy was bad they were crazy and wrong. When they showed Biden and Harris with the worst numbers ever they had been skewed. But now that they sometimes show Harris in the lead they are perfection. To say that these people areanthing but objective is funny

 

[candycorn]

The question is, are these polls that have Kamala up, accurate? That seems unlikely...

"How did the polls get worse from 2016 to 2020, with everyone watching? In the aftermath of Trump’s surprise 2016 victory, the public-opinion-research industry concluded that the problem was educational polarization. If pollsters had made a point of including enough white people without college degrees in their samples, they wouldn’t have underestimated Trump so badly."

The Asterisk on Kamala Harris’s Poll Numbers

Pollsters think they’ve learned from their mistakes in 2020. Of course, they thought that last time too.

www.theatlantic.com

Its a Sienna College poll in NC.

Its an Emerson poll in PA.

Before you start with the "they're liberals" stuff, the Sienna College poll is also the one in Nevada and GA; both have the blob up.

 

[candycorn]

Don’t all candidates get a bump after their conventions?

Yeah, the graphic was done before any convention bump for Harris.

 

[Godboy]

Its a Sienna College poll in NC.

Its an Emerson poll in PA.

Before you start with the "they're liberals" stuff, the Sienna College poll is also the one in Nevada and GA; both have the blob up.

They were wrong about the numbers, TWO presidential elections in a row.

 

[gipper]

Anyone excited about a Harris presidency, can’t be too smart.

 

[ThisIsMe]

Yeah, the graphic was done before any convention bump for Harris.

Can’t wait for November. Going to be a popcorn kind of day

 

[candycorn]

Can’t wait for November. Going to be a popcorn kind of day

Yeah...one side is going to be very happy, one side is going to be very sad. And the ironic thing is that very little will change based on who the President is.

 

[candycorn]

They were wrong about the numbers, TWO presidential elections in a row.

Link?

 

[candycorn]

Today's polls....

8/19 poll from something called "Activote" in PA and Survey USA has an 8/21 poll out in North Carolina.

Polls – ActiVote

www.activote.net

SurveyUSA Polls

Activote....

I don't buy a nearly 5 point lead for Harris. However, the important thing I'm seeing is the gender gap for women. Look at how well Trump is doing with Hispanics though.

 

[Godboy]

Link?

Polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016. Back in 2021, when the Democratic pollsters announced their joint effort, some had hoped that the former president’s hard-to-measure appeal would be negated if he wasn’t on the ballot in 2024.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/22/democrat-pollsters-kamala-harris-00176065

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-election-polls-were-wrong-in-2016-and-2020-and-whats-changing.html

Pre-election polls in 2020 had the largest errors in 40 years

Public opinion polls ahead of the 2020 election were the most inaccurate in a generation, according to Josh Clinton, Abby and Jon Winkelried Chair and professor of political science, who recently served as chair of a special task force convened by the American Association for Public Opinion...

news.vanderbilt.edu

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050

 

[candycorn]

Polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016. Back in 2021, when the Democratic pollsters announced their joint effort, some had hoped that the former president’s hard-to-measure appeal would be negated if he wasn’t on the ballot in 2024.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/22/democrat-pollsters-kamala-harris-00176065

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-election-polls-were-wrong-in-2016-and-2020-and-whats-changing.html

Pre-election polls in 2020 had the largest errors in 40 years

Public opinion polls ahead of the 2020 election were the most inaccurate in a generation, according to Josh Clinton, Abby and Jon Winkelried Chair and professor of political science, who recently served as chair of a special task force convened by the American Association for Public Opinion...

news.vanderbilt.edu

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050

Oh, I thought you meant the Sienna College specifically.

Not sure how you can underestimate someone who lost by 9M votes but if you say so. Thanks for the info.

 

[ThisIsMe]

Yeah...one side is going to be very happy, one side is going to be very sad. And the ironic thing is that very little will change based on who the President is.

probably not. Again, it’s going to be an extra large bucket of popcorn kind of day…with butter….and cherry coke.

 

[candycorn]

Home | SoCal Research has the blob up by 1% in PA...

Roanoke College Poll: Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia has Harris up by 3 in NC. The governor's race in NC is really hurting the GOP.

It is good to see that WI/MI and AZ have now trended blue over several days now through several polls. The excitement is palpable. I thought AZ was a goner.

 

[candycorn]

This morning from NPR.

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/26/nx-s1-5088061/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map

 

[Lastamender]

Yeah, the graphic was done before any convention bump for Harris.

What bump?

 

[otto105]

Don’t all candidates get a bump after their conventions?

Fat Elvis did not.

 

[candycorn]

No change from the previous poll in electoral votes. Florida is within 5% according to a PPP Poll

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/FloridaAugust2020Results.pdf

In other news, PPP has Alsobrooks (sp?) up by 7 over Hogan in Maryland. It looks like the good guys may keep that seat