Lots of Polling and my own worthless opinions here.
The Harris momentum continues--where it needs to continue. Its a sign that the campaign is running efficiently. Essentially there are two tracks for Harris to win the election. This isn’t to be confused with the oft repeated “paths” to victory that you’ll hear on election night and the nights there after since Pennsylvania won’t be called for about 5 days after election night.
Here is the map featuring the famous “blue wall”. \
If any two of three states of WI, MI, or PA flip red, game over, the blob wins and another 4 year American dark ages takes root where Alabama becomes an east cost town, the government position is the you can rake 100,000,000 million acres of national forest, and we have a President who couldn’t manage a 7/11.
Fortunately (for the time being anyway), that doesn’t look likely. This weeks polling has Harris in the 50’s in the 3 states. Michigan has her at 49 but it was 50 earlier this week.
Wisconsin:
Michigan:
Pennsylvania:
Vance is doing nothing to help Trump in the midwest. In fact, he’s probably hurting him in Wisconsin where the “anger index” doesn’t jibe well with his dr death personality. You have to think that whomever Trump’s first choices were all turned him down if he landed on this dope.
Happiest States in America in 2024
wallethub.com
Anyway, So the broad assumption of both me and most of the pundits is that if any of them flip, it will likely be Pennsylvania. Maybe Michigan. Again, if both flip, that’s the ball game. But if either one flips, it’s likely to be Pennsylvania.
So without the 19 electoral votes in PA, Harris would have to either hold on to states Biden won (which may still happen) or flip a new Red State.
Hello North Carolina!!!!
Of the two blue states that Biden christened into the D column in 2020, Arizona is likely the only one who may remain blue. Why? Kari Lake and her diarrhea of the mouth syndrome. Look for Lake to make some sort of massively misguided gesture the closer we get to Election Day. It may remind voters what a devious bitch she is and surge the vote for Harris. The same will likely hold true in NC with the moronic Lt. Governor Robinson out there. If I’m the democrats, I’m putting every microphone we have in front of these two and hoping they give either the red voters an excuse to do yard work on 11/5 and not vote OR give blue voters more reason to caucus and vote for Harris. Either way works for me. As in 2022, we saw what happened to right wing extremists and hopefully that will happen again in’24.
If I’m Harris, I’m giving up on GA. As I’ve said since she got in the race; if they didn’t show up for Abrams, they’re not going to show up for Harris. I’d also focus on both Nevada and Arizona as well as Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Leave everything else up to the surrogates.
Of the two out west, NV seems to be an easier hold. Biden won by 2% out there in 2020 and Harris currently leads in a lot of polling. It neighbors Arizona so you can do 2 stops in one day out there; the only metro area that matters if Vegas so you don’t have to do the Pennsylvania thing where you are in Erie and Harrisburg.
You get to 270, you get 100% of the presidency. Harris will hopefully have some help from the GOP in NC and Arizona. GA was a nice win for Biden last time out but it’s not going to go your way Madam Vice President.
