So you realize I agree with you there, right?
Yes. I know that. I was amplifying, not contradicting.
I should have begun that post with "and" instead of "but." I can see how the conjunction I chose created confusion. Sorry.
So back to your mission. Can you think of
anything we could discover about Trump that would stop his cult following or at least make them think, soberly, of what they are doing? Since the Washington Post announced its Team of 20 to dig up dirt on Trump, I've been trying to imagine what they could possibly find that would have any effect whatever.
What it might be I cannot predict specifically what it might be because his is a cult of personality rather than a cult of reason. Having watched folks whom I know to normally be very bright people sing that man's praises and offer exculpations for and refutations of things that with regard to any other person would be a "kiss of death," I am convinced that whatever it be that would bring the Trump phenomenon to a screeching halt will have to be "smoking gun" in nature.
I suspect that whatever it is, it'd be in the tax returns he's so cagily refused to release. I think that because as a CPA, I'm aware of the tax minimization opportunities to which Trump has alluded and of which few if any "average Joes" can avail themselves. I suspect that many of them would appear shady and/or unfair to an "average Joe" who basically gets paid, reduces the gross payment by a little bit for "this" straightforward activity and a little bit for a few others, then multiplies the payment by a tax rate (or looks up the tax amount in a table) and pays the product. (Yes that's an oversimplified depiction, but it's not that much of one.)
Wealthy folks have tax minimization opportunities that just don't seem fair. For example, if you buy a boat, you don't get a tax deduction for it. If you buy a boat that has a built in berth, head and galley, it qualifies for the mortgage interest deduction. That deduction is precisely why when you look at
boat ads like these you see highlighted the words "galley" and "cabin/berth."
Don't ask me why a boat with a kitchen, a bed and a bathroom is treated (in the tax code) as though it's a vacation home, but a boat that lacks those amenities is treated like a car. I cannot tell you the logic behind that. To me, both are "rich guy" toys much as a Ferrari is. To other boat owners I know, they are also toys, but that doesn't stop any of us from taking the deduction. But when one sees Trump's boat, and considers that his interest deduction on that thing surpasses many folks' annual income, even comfortable folks kind of have to ask, "What's fair about that?"
I mean let's face facts. The deduction for "vacation home boats" is largely a boost to the boating industry. Why should the boating industry get that sort of boost? Why should boat buyers get a tax break for buying "rich guy" toys and "regular" folks get no deduction for their toys? Not even so much as something like a "general personal entertainment" deduction that is akin to the boat deduction.
Getting back to your question, however....The other day, I heard (I don't recall the source) that Trump's audit is reaching back eight years. While not strictly impossible, it's highly irregular except in certain rarefied circumstances such as when the IRS is all but convinced any of the following have occurred with regard to one's taxes and/or tax returns:
- One has failed to report 25% or more of one's income,
- One has failed to report $5K or more in foreign assets,
- One has failed to file a tax return, or
- One as committed fraud.
Based solely on what I know of Trump Organization, LLC and what I sense about Trump's character, I would not put any of the first two past him. I wouldn't presume to accuse the man of outright fraud. Moreover, seeing as the only partners in Trump Organization are Trump's (1) very few and (2) his immediate family members, the risk of collusion is considerably higher than it would be were the partners not family members. That makes the audit considerably harder to perform effectively than are audits of other businesses and individuals. The matter is made more complex because the nature of the business is real estate development and it also has an international component.
That said, the only things that may differ after the audit as compared with before the audit are:
- The return itself if the auditor find mistakes, omissions, etc. The return would be revised and what Trump would release will in all likelihood reflect the revised return and only what he did "get away with" instead of what he tried to "get away with." The IRS won't disclose anything about Trump's return, so only Trump and his tax team, and perhaps his family members will know what he tried to pull off.
- The types of statements Trump can issue. If he releases before the audit is complete, and then the IRS finds exceptions with his return/tax payment, there's no deniability of chicanery. If he releases after the audit, there'll be no awareness of what the chicanery may have been. There'll also be no awareness of whether and what the IRS deemed are exceptions/violations.
As for the returns themselves, what he filed is what he filed. That won't change. It's only what and how he'd communicate to the American people that can change depending on the audit's outcome.