BAD RATINGS FOR THE SCHIFF SHOW:
Quinnipiac: Opposition to impeachment and removal reaches 51%, highest number since September.
Just a brutal number for Democrats, not only on the merits but because it’s coming
from Quinnipiac. Quinnipiac typically has bad numbers for Trump, particularly on his job approval. That’s pretty bad in this poll too, in fact, clocking in at 40/57. He trails every top-tier Democrat head to head as well.
So to find public opinion on impeachment trending in his direction in a Q-poll is a big deal. If it’s this bad in a national poll of registered voters, imagine what a poll of likely voters in battleground states looks like nowadays. Hoo boy.
Support for impeachment and removal has been trending south in Quinnipiac polls for weeks. In late September, before the Ukraine story broke big, the public split 37/57 on removing him. Then people started warming up. Within five days, it was up to 47/47. A month later it had inched higher to 48/46. But then the trend reversed, with support sliding to 45/48 by late November. Today’s number represents the first time since September that a majority has opposed removal.
At no point in any Q-poll has a majority favored it.
I wonder how much of the public’s trend towards opposition is due to growing skepticism about the Democrats’ case and how much is due to other factors influencing public opinion in Trump’s favor, which in turn ends up undercutting support for removal. Right, granted, his job approval is weak here, but check this out. This is a *big* number:
Quinnipiac asked that same question twice before this year and the highest number they saw was 52 percent. The blowout jobs report last week obviously made an impression; check out the split among independents, who are now better than two-to-one in saying that they’re better off financially than they were before. Not surprisingly, the jobs numbers have also pushed Trump’s rating on handling the economy to the highest level it’s been in more than a year — 54/42, the first time he’s been at 50 percent or better in all of 2019.
I don’t know how to square that with his overall job approval except to say that perceptions of Trump the man doubtless heavily color the latter whereas a specific question about his handling of the economy ends up with character assessments being compartmentalized. How will that work out in the booth next November? “He’s really, really obnoxious, even corrupt — and I’ve
never made so much money!”
Also not coincidentally, Trump has gained ground head to head against Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg since Quinnipiac’s poll last month. He still trails all three, but if you’re looking for a way to measure whether impeachment is hurting him or not, the fact that he’s gotten
more competitive with top Democrats as it’s played out would seem to provide an answer.
Where does all of this fit in the big picture? Well, here’s the
RCP average of Trump’s daily job approval over the past six months. The Ukraine story exploded in late September. Trump’s approval did take a hit afterward, but note the trend lately:
His approval today stands at 44.6 percent. The last time he touched that number was September 27. He’s fully recovered from the hit.
Dems clearly are engaged in a kamikaze run.
It will be interesting is Nancy merely whips the vote to 218 and lets the rest of the Dems save themselves, or if she forces more than she needs to fall on their swords. This is clearly a losing effort, and while Nancy has a bullet proof seat, she has 50 or so that in actually competitive districts. In fact, she can't get to 218 without out going into her red districts.
- New York 15 D+44 Democratic
- New York 13 D+43 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 3 D+41 Democratic
- California 13 D+40 Democratic
- Illinois 7 D+38 Democratic
- New York 7 D+38 Democratic
- California 12 D+37 Democratic
- California 37 D+37 Democratic
- New York 5 D+37 Democratic
- New Jersey 10 D+36 Democratic
- New York 8 D+36 Democratic
- California 34 D+35 Democratic
- California 44 D+35 Democratic
- Florida 24 D+34 Democratic
- Georgia 5 D+34 Democratic
- Massachusetts 7 D+34 Democratic
- New York 9 D+34 Democratic
- California 40 D+33 Democratic
- Illinois 4 D+33 Democratic
- Michigan 13 D+33 Democratic
- Washington 7 D+33 Democratic
- Ohio 11 D+32 Democratic
- Florida 20 D+31 Democratic
- New York 12 D+31 Democratic
- Michigan 14 D+30 Democratic
- California 29 D+29 Democratic
- California 43 D+29 Democratic
- Illinois 2 D+29 Democratic
- Missouri 1 D+29 Democratic
- New York 14 D+29 Democratic
- Texas 9 D+29 Democratic
- Texas 30 D+29 Democratic
- Maryland 4 D+28 Democratic
- Tennessee 9 D+28 Democratic
- California 14 D+27 Democratic
- Illinois 1 D+27 Democratic
- New Jersey 8 D+27 Democratic
- Texas 18 D+27 Democratic
- Maryland 7 D+26 Democratic
- Minnesota 5 D+26 Democratic
- New York 10 D+26 Democratic
- California 17 D+25 Democratic
- Louisiana 2 D+25 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 2 D+25 Democratic
- Wisconsin 4 D+25 Democratic
- California 19 D+24 Democratic
- Georgia 4 D+24 Democratic
- New York 16 D+24 Democratic
- Oregon 3 D+24 Democratic
- Arizona 7 D+23 Democratic
- California 18 D+23 Democratic
- California 20 D+23 Democratic
- California 28 D+23 Democratic
- Texas 33 D+23 Democratic
- California 2 D+22 Democratic
- California 51 D+22 Democratic
- California 5 D+21 Democratic
- California 6 D+21 Democratic
- California 11 D+21 Democratic
- Colorado 1 D+21 Democratic
- Virginia 8 D+21 Democratic
- Washington 9 D+21 Democratic
- Alabama 7 D+20 Democratic
- California 15 D+20 Democratic
- Georgia 13 D+20 Democratic
- Illinois 5 D+20 Democratic
- California 35 D+19 Democratic
- Hawaii 2 D+19 Democratic
- Ohio 3 D+19 Democratic
- South Carolina 6 D+19 Democratic
- Texas 29 D+19 Democratic
- California 30 D+18 Democratic
- Illinois 9 D+18 Democratic
- Massachusetts 5 D+18 Democratic
- North Carolina 12 D+18 Democratic
- Wisconsin 2 D+18 Democratic
- California 32 D+17 Democratic
- California 38 D+17 Democratic
- Hawaii 1 D+17 Democratic
- North Carolina 1 D+17 Democratic
- North Carolina 4 D+17 Democratic
- Texas 16 D+17 Democratic
- California 27 D+16 Democratic
- California 33 D+16 Democratic
- Maryland 5 D+16 Democratic
- New Jersey 9 D+16 Democratic
- New Jersey 12 D+16 Democratic
- New York 6 D+16 Democratic
- Virginia 3 D+16 Democratic
- California 46 D+15 Democratic
- Nevada 1 D+15 Democratic
- Texas 35 D+15 Democratic
- Vermont at-large D+15 Democratic
- Virginia 11 D+15 Democratic
- California 53 D+14 Democratic
- Maryland 8 D+14 Democratic
- Michigan 12 D+14 Democratic
- Minnesota 4 D+14 Democratic
- Mississippi 2 D+14 Democratic
- Ohio 9 D+14 Democratic
- Rhode Island 1 D+14 Democratic
- Arizona 3 D+13 Democratic
- California 47 D+13 Democratic
- Maryland 3 D+13 Democratic
- New Jersey 1 D+13 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 5 D+13 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 18 D+13 Democratic
- California 41 D+12 Democratic
- Connecticut 1 D+12 Democratic
- Florida 5 D+12 Democratic
- Massachusetts 1 D+12 Democratic
- Florida 10 D+11 Democratic
- Florida 23 D+11 Democratic
- Indiana 7 D+11 Democratic
- Maryland 2 D+11 Democratic
- New York 26 D+11 Democratic
- Illinois 10 D+10 Democratic
- Massachusetts 8 D+10 Democratic
- Texas 20 D+10 Democratic
- Texas 34 D+10 Democratic
- Virginia 4 D+10 Democratic
- Washington 2 D+10 Democratic
- California 16 D+9 Democratic
- Colorado 2 D+9 Democratic
- Connecticut 3 D+9 Democratic
- Florida 21 D+9 Democratic
- Illinois 11 D+9 Democratic
- Massachusetts 2 D+9 Democratic
- Massachusetts 3 D+9 Democratic
- Massachusetts 4 D+9 Democratic
- New Jersey 6 D+9 Democratic
- Oregon 1 D+9 Democratic
- Texas 28 D+9 Democratic
- California 9 D+8 Democratic
- California 31 D+8 Democratic
- Illinois 8 D+8 Democratic
- Indiana 1 D+8 Democratic
- Maine 1 D+8 Democratic
- New Mexico 3 D+8 Democratic
- New York 25 D+8 Democratic
- California 24 D+7 Democratic
- California 26 D+7 Democratic
- Connecticut 4 D+7 Democratic
- Florida 14 D+7 Democratic
- Missouri 5 D+7 Democratic
- New Mexico 1 D+7 Democratic
- New York 17 D+7 Democratic
- New York 20 D+7 Democratic
- Ohio 13 D+7 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 4 D+7 Democratic
- Tennessee 5 D+7 Democratic
- Texas 15 D+7 Democratic
- California 52 D+6 Democratic
- Colorado 7 D+6 Democratic
- Delaware at-large D+6 Democratic
- Florida 22 D+6 Democratic
- Florida 26 D+6 Democratic
- Georgia 2 D+6 Democratic
- Illinois 3 D+6 Democratic
- Kentucky 3 D+6 Democratic
- Maryland 6 D+6 Democratic
- Massachusetts 6 D+6 Democratic
- Rhode Island 2 D+6 Democratic
- Washington 1 D+6 Democratic
- Washington 6 D+6 Democratic
- California 3 D+5 Democratic
- California 21 D+5 Democratic
- Florida 9 D+5 Democratic
- Florida 27 D+5 Democratic
- Michigan 5 D+5 Democratic
- Washington 10 D+5 Democratic
- Arizona 9 D+4 Democratic
- Massachusetts 9 D+4 Democratic
- Michigan 9 D+4 Democratic
- New York 4 D+4 Democratic
- California 7 D+3 Democratic
- Connecticut 2 D+3 Democratic
- Illinois 17 D+3 Democratic
- Nevada 4 D+3 Democratic
- California 36 D+2 Democratic
- Colorado 6 D+2 Democratic
- Connecticut 5 D+2 Democratic
- Florida 13 D+2 Democratic
- New Hampshire 2 D+2 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 6 D+2 Democratic
- Iowa 1 D+1 Democratic
- Iowa 2 D+1 Democratic
- Minnesota 3 D+1 Democratic
- New York 3 D+1 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 7 D+1 Democratic
- Virginia 10 D+1 Democratic
- California 10 EVEN Democratic
- California 25 EVEN Democratic
- California 39 EVEN Democratic
- Florida 7 EVEN Democratic
- Oregon 4 EVEN Democratic
- Oregon 5 EVEN Democratic
- Washington 8 EVEN Democratic
- Wisconsin 3 EVEN Democratic
- Arizona 2 R+1 Democratic
- California 49 R+1 Democratic
- Iowa 3 R+1 Democratic
- New Jersey 2 R+1 Democratic
- New York 18 R+1 Democratic
- Pennsylvania 8 R+1 Democratic
- Arizona 1 R+2 Democratic
- Illinois 6 R+2 Democratic
- Maine 2 R+2 Democratic
- Minnesota 2 R+2 Democratic
- Nevada 3 R+2 Democratic
- New Hampshire 1 R+2 Democratic
- New Jersey 3 R+2 Democratic
- New York 19 R+2 Democratic
- California 45 R+3 Democratic
- New Jersey 5 R+3 Democratic
- New Jersey 7 R+3 Democratic
- New Jersey 11 R+3 Democratic
- New York 11 R+3 Democratic