Hi Editec with wimpy and David mentioned:
You appear to be the voice of reason around here today. :0)
Please go away with your conspiracy theories you fucking moron.[
Regards terral's last post?
Absolutely nothing even remotely conspiratorial about
that post.
We agree. The trends forecasters (from the above post) are saying the markets will continue to go DOWN.
As long as the real estate market is unstable, and people whose majority life's saving are in real estate (and that would be far more people than stock market investors, I suspect) people are going to continue to hold back on spending.
That is Gerald Celente’s advice exactly, which makes sense in any deflationary market were prices are falling. The object of the game is still to buy low and sell high. Right? :0)
And certainly, as long as we're having increasing unemployment and underemployment, people are going to hold back on spending, too.
We agree. Just Google the words “
empty malls” and look at the results . . .
Now how the market thrives under those circumstances I cannot imagine.
Wimpy and David spin their wheels around here every day talking the market up, when the trends forecasters are simply telling everybody what the data shows. Period. Now we have a battle between the Washington and Wall Street LIARS

eusa_liar

, with a vested interest in the stock markets going up ‘and’ the trends forecasters

eusa_hand

who cashed out at Dow Jones 14,000 and now have their money in gold waiting for
a recognizable bottom. This
Geithner Housing Plan (
my thread) hype has the markets going up, because too many traders are believing
the LIES and everyone else is along for the ride up ‘and’ the ride back down when reality sets in that this debacle will only make the situation far worse. The reason is that nobody is doing anything to shore up
the ‘fundamentals’ of the Economy, which would begin by
eliminating outsourcing and slowing down
the 1.5 million Foreign Nationals coming to the USA this year to
‘displace’ US workers from JOBS. We are still looking at
10,000 foreclosures every day and another
600,000 workers standing in the unemployment line by the end of this month and the next month and so forth. The problem for banks is very similar to the one facing China holding so much US Debt. If China starts dumping dollars onto the open market, then the remainder of their Trillion Dollar investment begins losing value and might even crash the system. When the banks start dumping their distressed properties back onto the open market,
that will become ‘the market’ and the price you ‘can’ get for your house will
go down to distressed housing levels; which means
you will be underwater in no time.
Until the banks start lending, and the people start spending, again, I cannot see why the market would recover much if at all.
Banks cannot lend in deflationary market and survive! The math simply does not work. If you have money to lend, the hand that out in investment opportunities guaranteed to go UP and not down

cuckoo

.
And if the price of real estate is going to reach pricing associated with incomes as it once was, then the median price of a home in the USA still have about $100,000 to drop, yet.
Or more. :0) If nobody is going to begin protecting
the JOBS of
the very least among the
American workers, and
Illegal Aliens by the MILLIONS are allowed to stomp around EVERYWHERE, then
you will NEVER see a housing bottom; because the price that real Americans ‘can’ afford to pay will continue to go DOWN. This is like putting a band aid on a patient convulsing from every orifice, when you have no inclination to stop the bleeding from everywhere else. Why bother? :0) This Plan represents just another way for
the illegal FED and
their U.S. Treasury co-conspirators to hand more money to
banks (their buddies) while the regular guy gets
the shaft. The details of the Plan say:
PoliticalTicker
Under the new so-called "Public-Private Investment Program", taxpayer funds will be used to
seed partnerships with private investors that will
buy up so-called toxic assets backed by mortgages and
other loans 
cuckoo

.
The goal is to buy up at least
$500 billion of bad assets — such as
‘subprime mortgages’ that are
‘now’ in danger of default. Doing so would help cleanse the balance sheets of many of the nation's largest banks, which continue to suffer billions of dollars in losses.
We are talking about
‘subprime’ mortgages that are
‘now’ in danger of default. What about the millions of Americans who already lost their homes and have already gone into foreclosure and the 10,000 going into foreclosure today? Since when will
getting ‘subprime’ mortgages off the bank balance sheet help
‘cleanse’ anything, because as of November 2008 only
6.89 percent of mortgages fall into the ‘subprime’ category (
story) and represent less than half of the current foreclosures (43 percent in 2007). This Plan does nothing for the situations where the people are underwater and simply walk away. At an average of 250,000 dollars, and 10,000 foreclosures every day, that equals
2.5 billion dollars every day or
75 billion dollars every month in potential bank losses. That means 500 billion dollars is enough money to buy up all the foreclosed properties in the USA for a grand total of 6.6 months or about half of one year. :0) Then the problem is finding
a 'qualified' buyer for the
distressed property that might have all the walls knocked out and need 100,000 dollars in repairs. If anybody thinks this kind of Plan will work

disagree

, then simply go down to the local driver’s license office and stand in line to see the kind of service you should expect. Obama’s Plan still creates
no JOBS and still hands
billions and billions and billions in ‘borrowed’ dollars to the
BANKS, just like
TARP 1 under Senor Bushie ‘and’ the 10,000 foreclosures taking place
‘yesterday, today and tomorrow’ will go right on the unbalanced balance sheet . . .
The government will then run auctions between the banks selling the assets and the investors buying them, hoping to effectively create a market for these assets.
Now we are going to spend billions and billions and billions of our children’s money and
‘hope’ that something good happens, when the housing market is caught in
a deflationary tailspin ‘and’ prices are continuing to go
LOWER. Somebody guess what happens when you loan
200,000 borrowed dollars against a house that you ‘know for a fact’ is going DOWN in value to
100,000 dollars in three years? The value of your mortgage-backed security portfolio goes DOWN by 50 percent and you are a loser. If the market is willing to buy up these troubled assets, then we do not need the Gov’t to even be involved.
These bankers do not live in boxes somewhere and they all know plenty of investors, but
those investors are NOT IDIOTS and they would rather stay liquid until the bottom falls out of the housing market and they can get three houses for the price of one at the Gov’t Auction. Instead, these bankers are looking for
‘new money suckers’ willing to assume possession of these properties, so
‘they’ (the bankers)
can sit on the sidelines and remain liquid ‘and’ buy these same distressed properties back at a MUCH lower price later down the road . . .
To kickstart things, the administration said it will commit $75 billion to $100 billion and would consider how the program is progressing before committing more money.
75 billion dollars is enough to buy up the combined mortgages of US houses going into foreclosure for just 30 days, which is a drop in the proverbial bucket in relation to the SIZE of this problem. We are not even talking about the
8 Trillion-dollar commercial real estate market (
story) that is
now in jeopardy, the
‘student loan crisis’ (
story) and the
Credit Card Crisis (
story). And all of that does not even begin to address the continuing saga of
the AIG Crisis (
links) for being stupid enough to insure everybody headed for a ‘Crisis.’ :0)
And THAT would put most mortgages under water, and make most homeowners feel VERY poor, indeed.
About
30 percent of homeowners in San Diego were under water as of Christmas last year (
story), which is up to
20 percent nationally (
story) and those numbers are only going to get worse (all about the fundamentals again . . . ).
Is the stock market REALLY so disconnected from the financial state of the average American people that it can thrive while they all go broke?
No! The stock market is tied to the housing market and
the health of the consumer base that all rise and fall together. When you allow
too much Outsourcing of JOBS and allow
Foreign Nationals to continue ‘displacing’ US workers from identities and JOBS, then what you are seeing (falling markets) is what you get (and what you deserve). Some Americans have deluded themselves into believing that hiring Illegal Aliens is good for business, when in reality
they ‘displaced’ good-paying Americans from among their own customers. Obama’s next move will be to make everyone legal, so the
next 20 million Illegal Aliens can come here in the middle of the night
to steal ‘our identities and JOBS’ from this current batch.
The amount of money I currently have invested in the housing and stock markets is . . . ZERO. Remember that the smart money got out of the stock market when the Dow was at 14,000. :0) You guys hold onto that depreciating junk until we see the real bottom, then I will come along and pick things up for pennies on the dollar . . .
GL,
Terral