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Official Coronavirus Thread - Up to the minute Coronavirus map and count.

toobfreak

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The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.
A). You don't know how long Covid death cases will keep increasing.
B). If that many die from Covid, there will be fewer left over to die from the other causes, because chances are good most of them had other things as well.
C). Shut down the world long enough and we will all be dying, our economy will be dead, and we'll wish we had Covid instead of the smoldering ruin we will have left the living.
 

Ame®icano

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To back up what I posted in previous post...

Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up

Axios has compiled a timeline of the earliest weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in China, highlighting when the cover-up started and ended — and showing how, during that time, the virus already started spreading around the world, including to the United States.

Why it matters: A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.
 

yidnar

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The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.
A). You don't know how long Covid death cases will keep increasing.
B). If that many die from Covid, there will be fewer left over to die from the other causes, because chances are good most of them had other things as well.
C). Shut down the world long enough and we will all be dying, our economy will be dead, and we'll wish we had Covid instead of the smoldering ruin we will have left the living.
i think the plan in the US is to open parts of the country where the virus isn't very high ..NY California and Washington State may have a few more weeks to go ! i think we are going to be ok .
 

Flopper

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The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.
A). You don't know how long Covid death cases will keep increasing.
B). If that many die from Covid, there will be fewer left over to die from the other causes, because chances are good most of them had other things as well.
C). Shut down the world long enough and we will all be dying, our economy will be dead, and we'll wish we had Covid instead of the smoldering ruin we will have left the living.
No we don't know how long Covid 19 cases will keep increasing but we do know shutting down non-essential activities reduces the numbers of new and that was the goal so we could give the medical community time to prepare for larger number of cases when when restrictions are reduced. I don't remember anyone saying the goal of the restrictions was to reduce new cases to zero. We're just trying reduce the increase in new cases. Covid 19 will be around for a long time. It has a strong foothold in the country and we have long passed the point of being able to eliminate it but with development of antivirals, vaccines, and better methods of treatment we should be able to live with it just like we live with the flu.
 

Sun Devil 92

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Surgeon General discerns Trumps statements quite well.

Said he's trying to help people understand this won't last forever.

Ambiguity is the reason people will start shooting each other.

The left wing fear mongering is truly unAmerican and deserves to be punished.
 

Newtonian

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In view of thread title, the death rate from the Corona/Covid-19 virus is alarming, since it is similar to the death rate of the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918 - one of the worst plagues/pestilences in history, between 1 and 2%.

[Note: The 1918 pandemic killed c. 20 million people in 4 months and spread to all but one Island on planet earth - St. Helena was spared. That would be a death rate of 2% if the population was 1 billion - actually the population was much higher so the rate was <2%]

The following link was updated March 25, 2020:


Note that some countries have a death rate of more than 2% while others are less than 2%. However, statistics can be deceiving. Two factors skewing the rate:

1. The rate is based on confirmed cases of this virus - the actual number of those infected is much higher which makes the death rate lower.

2. Those initially infected can take c. 2 weeks to show symptoms and another 2 weeks to develop death (life) threatening symptoms like pneumonia. So those who will die is much higher - this raises the death rate.
 

Neil Austen

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The U.S. is on the trajectory to be the next Italy, and it's all because of Trump's incompetence.
When it comes to efforts to stopping the virus, no one has done less than Trump:
Opinion | A Complete List of Trump’s Attempts to Play Down Coronavirus

Trump thinks if he points the finger at someone else like some petulant man-child he could defer blame from his utter mishandling of the crisis. He thinks if he sacrifice your mom, your dad, you grandparents, and reopen the economy, he will have a higher chance for reelection. And his uneducated base will believe him. The portion of the American population that is still sane and have a semblance of rational thought need to make whatever efforts they can to remove this orange clown Trump from office now! Not in November - NOW!
 

toobfreak

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The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.
A). You don't know how long Covid death cases will keep increasing.
B). If that many die from Covid, there will be fewer left over to die from the other causes, because chances are good most of them had other things as well.
C). Shut down the world long enough and we will all be dying, our economy will be dead, and we'll wish we had Covid instead of the smoldering ruin we will have left the living.
No we don't know how long Covid 19 cases will keep increasing but we do know shutting down non-essential activities reduces the numbers of new and that was the goal so we could give the medical community time to prepare for larger number of cases when when restrictions are reduced. I don't remember anyone saying the goal of the restrictions was to reduce new cases to zero. We're just trying reduce the increase in new cases. Covid 19 will be around for a long time. It has a strong foothold in the country and we have long passed the point of being able to eliminate it but with development of antivirals, vaccines, and better methods of treatment we should be able to live with it just like we live with the flu.
If it will be around for a long time, then we haven't done enough to isolate person to person contact. And just who gets to decide what are "non-essential activities?" I can buy cakes and pies, are they essential? I can't reach my Social Security office or my utility, they aren't essential? I can buy a gun and ammo but I can't buy a bottle of whiskey? Many people need alcohol for stress and relaxation or to help with insomnia to sleep, particularly important now. All the worse as such services could have been easily converted to phone orders with CC only and pick up at the door making chance of contact all but nil.

Now I hear governments are closing parks and trails in some areas. People can't even go out and enjoy the fresh air and outdoors. Nothing to do at home. Nothing to do outside. No where to go. Government fucking everything up in their usual ham-handed clumsy self-serving way. Man-made purgatory.
 

JimBowie1958

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JimBowie1958

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But I am part of that, at least until we bribe Mexico to take Calipornia back.
Do you think they would resist to accept Spanish as their official language?
Depends on how they package the thing.

The Oligarchs have managed to sell the public on Gay Marriage in about three years time.
 

jc456

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So, comparing the numbers in a snapshot of the flu and covid-19 is obviously painfully stupid. There is a reason the global scientific community is taking this more seriously than the flu. If anyone hear is scratching their heads wondering why that is (scroll up for a demonstration), or wondering why a bunch of uneducated slobs can't just intuitively figure this out for themselves (same, scroll up), I suggest you do what rational, functioning adults do and go read up.
4000 a month are dying from the flu and 900 a month with corona. Again friend, your lack of logic, cause you left it at the door, isn't with you on this one. 4000 is greater than 900. Now, feel free to challenge that.
And 46,000 die of heart disease every day each, 27,000 from cancer, and 600 to 1200 from Flu when averaged over a 5 year period. There relevance to fight to stop covid 19 is exactly Zero for two reasons.

First, deaths from Flu, cancer, and heart disease may vary from year to year but averaged over a 10 year period, death rates are pretty stable. The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.

Secondly, compared to the Flu or other diseases I mention, we know practically nothing about Covid 19. We don't know if people will recover with long term immunity, or whether they will have serious complications. We don't know if or when a vaccine or effective antivirals will become available. Finally, just about everything we think we know about transmission has not verified.

Ignoring the rapid increase in the number of cases and deaths and believing the cornavirus is not worth fighting simply because the death rate has not reached that of other diseases is downright stupid.
So we default to what we are now which is not sustainable.

There are other options besides this and ignorning it.
We stick with the plan of isolation which has worked for centuries in fighting epidemics and has worked in China and South Korea and seems to be working in Italy. The current situation is not likely to last more than month or two. When the number of new cases start falling, the governors will start loosening the restrictions in their state, the market will start recovering and the economy will recover.

However, if we throw the towel in and abandon the current restrictions, the cases will increase at a faster rate, hospitals will be overloaded, and any economic recovery will be short lived. In short, we finish what we have started.
dude, you're just lost and wandering around.
 

jc456

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So, comparing the numbers in a snapshot of the flu and covid-19 is obviously painfully stupid. There is a reason the global scientific community is taking this more seriously than the flu. If anyone hear is scratching their heads wondering why that is (scroll up for a demonstration), or wondering why a bunch of uneducated slobs can't just intuitively figure this out for themselves (same, scroll up), I suggest you do what rational, functioning adults do and go read up.
4000 a month are dying from the flu and 900 a month with corona. Again friend, your lack of logic, cause you left it at the door, isn't with you on this one. 4000 is greater than 900. Now, feel free to challenge that.
And 46,000 die of heart disease every day each, 27,000 from cancer, and 600 to 1200 from Flu when averaged over a 5 year period. There relevance to fight to stop covid 19 is exactly Zero for two reasons.

First, deaths from Flu, cancer, and heart disease may vary from year to year but averaged over a 10 year period, death rates are pretty stable. The deaths from Covid 19 is doubling approximately every 6 days. At that rate, the 21,000 current deaths would increase in just 90 days to surpass that of the Flu, heart disease, and cancer.

Secondly, compared to the Flu or other diseases I mention, we know practically nothing about Covid 19. We don't know if people will recover with long term immunity, or whether they will have serious complications. We don't know if or when a vaccine or effective antivirals will become available. Finally, just about everything we think we know about transmission has not verified.

Ignoring the rapid increase in the number of cases and deaths and believing the cornavirus is not worth fighting simply because the death rate has not reached that of other diseases is downright stupid.
So we default to what we are now which is not sustainable.

There are other options besides this and ignorning it.
We stick with the plan of isolation which has worked for centuries in fighting epidemics and has worked in China and South Korea and seems to be working in Italy. The current situation is not likely to last more than month or two. When the number of new cases start falling, the governors will start loosening the restrictions in their state, the market will start recovering and the economy will recover.

However, if we throw the towel in and abandon the current restrictions, the cases will increase at a faster rate, hospitals will be overloaded, and any economic recovery will be short lived. In short, we finish what we have started.
Stop with the abandon and throw in the towel horseshit.

I am going to ask you because other left wingers won't answer. Do you believe someone can hold a church service, take precautions (a whole list of them) and still prevent the spread of the disease ?

Can I go to my office (take all kinds of precautions) and still prevent the spread of the diesease ?

It is a simple question.
Sure provided everyone maintained a distance of 6 foot separation, avoided coming to work or church if they were ill or exposed to the virus. However, you and I know that is not going to happen because that is not how we work nor how worship. Even if 99 out of a hundred follow the rules, it only takes one person to spread the virus to many people. One person in South Korea, identified as patient 31 transmitted the virus to over 1,100 people as she went about her life.
You and I don't know anything. If the protocols are in place, then it should be doable.

There is no "isolation or nothing". There is plenty of inbetween.

If others are protected, how will someone spread it to them ?

Case 31 wasn't aware of her situation.

I unwilling to admit we can't do this.

And BTW: We still have people going to WalMart...picking up fast food, and doing other things that could still get them sick.
In Washington we did try the middle ground asking people to work from home if they could, avoid large crowds, ect. The result was little changed, people attended large events, most everybody went to work, parks, playgrounds, restaurants and theaters. There was little difference in crowded areas and the daily number of new cases kept increasing. The governor then order all businesses closed except those listed as essential, all schools and colleges closed, all bars and restaurants closed except for delivery and take out, all events and meetings over 100 people, sporting events and concerts shutdown, church services cancelled and funerals postponed. People were told to stay at home except for a list of essential activities. After about 10 days the rate new cases started to drop. It's still a long way from no new cases but it's a start.

Asking people to practice good hygiene, avoid crowds, and take precautions does not work in large cities.
how many days did the middle ground part go for? here, was three days. there is no possible statistical way anyone could conclude jack with that little time. So spare me the hysteria reactions.
 

tigerred59

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WHEN THIS IS ALL OVER, ITS TIME THE WORLD RID ITSELF OF CHEAP LABOR FROM CHINA...CHINA HAS PUT MORE SUFFERING ON PPL ALL OVER THE WORLD WITH PANDEMIC EVENTS THAT SPREAD NOTHING BUT MISERY TO THE REST OF US ALMOST ON A YEAR BY YEAR BASIS.....ITS TIME TO LET THE CHINESE GO!!
 

Pogo

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WATCH THIS NOW -- some good news among the bad.

I'll get flamed/ignored/banned for saying this but check out columns 4 and 6 on the latest chart.

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
Tot Deaths/
1M pop
China81,285+673,287+674,0513,9471,235562
USA74,982+6,7711,078+511,85072,0541,8572273
Italy74,3867,5039,36257,5213,4891,230124
Spain56,197+6,6824,145+4987,01545,0373,1661,20289
Germany43,646+6,323239+335,67337,734235213
Iran29,406+2,3892,234+15710,45716,7152,74635027
France25,2331,3313,90020,0022,82738720
Switzerland11,712+815191+3813111,3901411,35322
UK9,849+320477+121359,2371631457
S. Korea9,241+104131+54,1444,966591803
Netherlands7,431+1,019434+7836,99458243425
Austria6,398+81049+181126,237287105
Belgium6,235+1,298220+426755,34060553819
Canada3,579+170361853,35835951.0

We have now SURPASSED the number of deaths with the number of recoveries, more in line with those countries that have dealt with Coronavirus longer than we have. I kept telling y'all that given TIME this would turn around. To do the banned math, instead of the notorious 63% of resolved cases ending in death, that proportion is now recovered. All you O'Briens of the site sitting here insisting that two plus two equals five, MATH THIS. :fu:

Mind you, we're still spreading at an alarming rate and with asymptomatic carriers walking around that's not likely to abate until far more testing gets done so we can identify them. And that proportion will change as numbers mount up, but let's at least hope this stays the rule rather than the exception. We WILL get out of this.

flacaltenn Nostra mikegriffith1

Who's that klown who keeps trolling in here insisting I'm "celebrating"? Ame®icano or some shit? Here ya go pal, see what celebrating actually looks like.
 
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james bond

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I've been listening to Dr. Fauci and not Trump on this. To those taking COVID-19 lightly, this should convince you that even young people could get it a second time. One would need more time to combat this and getting it second time quickly would mean an underlying condition.

"Washington (AFP) - There is a strong chance the new coronavirus could return in seasonal cycles, a senior US scientist said Wednesday, underscoring the urgent need to find a vaccine and effective treatments.

Anthony Fauci, who leads research into infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told a briefing the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way.

"What we're starting to see now... in southern Africa and in the southern hemisphere countries, is that we're having cases that are appearing as they go into their winter season," he said."


Be prepared for the worse.
 

Flopper

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Surgeon General discerns Trumps statements quite well.

Said he's trying to help people understand this won't last forever.

Ambiguity is the reason people will start shooting each other.

The left wing fear mongering is truly unAmerican and deserves to be punished.
The president should offer encouragement that things will get back to normal but he should not be implying that will happen by a certain date. Restrictions should be based on new cases, not the stock market or unemployment. The restrictions were ordered by the governors of each state based on their assessment of the health risks to the residents. It will be the governors who decide when to lift restrictions, hopefully made based on new cases in their state and not political pressure from the president who is most concerned about the up coming election.
 

james bond

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Statistics. In this case, forecasting, like the weather forecast.

The naysayers will go with Mark Twain. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
 

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