Odds for Obama's 2012 Re-election Rises

[Toro]

As the market tanked at the beginning of Obama's Presidency, his odds of winning the 2012 election steadily ticked lower. But now that the market has surged in recent weeks, his odds to win have spiked to their highest levels since January. Currently, traders on Intrade are putting the odds at 65%. We saw a similar trend with the market and former President Bush's approval ratings towards the end of his second term. If the economy and stock market make a nice comeback over the next few years, it should be easy for Obama to win a second term. It's a pretty simple formula.

Bespoke Investment Group: Dem to Win in 2012 Spikes with Market

Why is this in the economy section? Because the odds of a President being re-elected is partially dependent upon how the economy is doing. It is easier for the President to be re-elected if the economy is doing well.

Of course, anything can happen over the next four years, and I don't put any stock in predicting the election that far in advance. However, the odds rising for re-election in the future is an indicator that the perception of the economy is improving now.

 

[Old Rocks]

If the economy does stabalize, and then move up slowly, President Obama has a lock on the '12 election. If it comes back and does very well, and the employment figures rise with it, then the Dems as a whole will do very well in 2010 and 2012.

If President Obama also succeeds in getting an equitable National Health Care System in place by the end of this term, he will have a lock on a place in history.

 

[wimpy77]

i agree with old rocks

 

[Seraega]

I agree with this, but it's not such an anomaly. If the country is doing well, incumbents do well.

 

[neurosport]

well if the economy comes back from the mess it is in now i don't see how O could possibly NOT get re-elected.

in my view though there is no way we will have a decent capitalist economy by 2012 the way we're going

we might have a decent fascist one though

 

[elvis]

Incumbents don't lose. Think about it. Bush Sr. lost because Perot took votes away from him. Carter was WAY ahead in October, then the Iran crisis screwed him up. Incumbents are favorites to begin with.

 

[xsited1]

Obama already has a lock. The GOP is hopelessly lost. Since they are America's last line of defense against Leftists like Obama and since they cater to the Neoconservatives, the silent majority will have no one to vote for. Wackos like Obama will win by default. The best America can hope for is for the Libtards in Congress to be replaced by real Conservatives in 2010.

 

[neurosport]

Wackos like Obama will win by default.

you're an optimist. we have no idea how bad things might get by 2012.

 

[Article 15]

Obama already has a lock. The GOP is hopelessly lost. Since they are America's last line of defense against Leftists like Obama and since they cater to the Neoconservatives, the silent majority will have no one to vote for. Wackos like Obama will win by default. The best America can hope for is for the Libtards in Congress to be replaced by real Conservatives in 2010.

I'm down for some divided gov't.

 

[Angel Heart]

Big time... They need to have their hands tied up again... Make nothing happen in DC... Demand better... Don't hold your nose and vote. If there's no one to vote for pick someone to write in. We can take our country back!!!

 

[Old Rocks]

We have had some good times with a divided government. But the opposition party has to stand for something other than greed for that to work.

 

[Old Rocks]

Big time... They need to have their hands tied up again... Make nothing happen in DC... Demand better... Don't hold your nose and vote. If there's no one to vote for pick someone to write in. We can take our country back!!!

Want to bet?

 

[Angel Heart]

I bet you that we will rock things at it's core come April 15Th... We have 400 cities being planned... I'm handing out the flyer's in the Portland Metro. I'm getting very positive responses. Wait and see.

Fascism has been here since 1913. Why hasn't the Federal Reserve ever been audited? Nothing should be above the law!

This is no longer left vs right... If you are playing that game you are a Kool-Aid drinker. That's toward both sides. The two party system is there to keep us busy hating each other. It's time to Unite or Die!

 

[Angel Heart]

It's now at 500 cities.

 

[manu1959]

it is quite likely that the economy will be on the upswing in 12 and that obama will have claimed credit for it ..... taxes will be raised on corporations and the rich and cut on the middle class and some form of government healthcare will be available.....

the wild card will be obama's war in afganistan......

 

[jillian]

Incumbents don't lose. Think about it. Bush Sr. lost because Perot took votes away from him. Carter was WAY ahead in October, then the Iran crisis screwed him up. Incumbents are favorites to begin with.

Incumbants are always favorites for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is better the devil you know than the devil you don't know. But there are times people screw up so badly that they can't be re-elected. I think we can all agree that the economy is the leading factor. BushI would have won again but for the economy. (and his failure to even know what a supermarket scanner was didn't help). But there are so many problems right now, that a major misstep as to any of them could be problematic.

for example, how should north korea be handled so as not to create another war and at the same time not to embolden Iran?

How to handle Iran so that the middle east doesn't go boom?

 

[ItsFairmont]

Nothing is going to happen on April 15th other than a couple people waving a sign in the street.

Most people will be doing exactly what I'm doing: protesting with a keyboard.

 

[Old Rocks]

it is quite likely that the economy will be on the upswing in 12 and that obama will have claimed credit for it ..... taxes will be raised on corporations and the rich and cut on the middle class and some form of government healthcare will be available.....

the wild card will be obama's war in afganistan......

If we truly get a good National Health Care System, the middle class will have to pay taxes to support it. As one of the middle class, that would actually probably be a plus for me. For the amount my employer pays for the excellant health care package we have would then be paid to me. And with the savings of the type we see from Switzerland to Taiwan, it would save at least 25% per capita, and maybe as much as 50%.

 

[Zoomie1980]

Wackos like Obama will win by default.

you're an optimist. we have no idea how bad things might get by 2012.

We know for sure the democrats are going to lose two senate seats in 2010 (Illinois and Dodd in Connecticut). Most project at least one more seat. Fillibuster will pretty be a sure deal then so whatever Obama is going to get done he's going to have to get in this Congress. But even now the right-wing dems are planning on joining Repbulicans in blocking his Cap and Trade energy plan, card-check, and his health plan. As usual that 100 day head of steam a new Pres gets has about run its course.

 

[Zoomie1980]

it is quite likely that the economy will be on the upswing in 12 and that obama will have claimed credit for it ..... taxes will be raised on corporations and the rich and cut on the middle class and some form of government healthcare will be available.....

the wild card will be obama's war in afganistan......

If we truly get a good National Health Care System, the middle class will have to pay taxes to support it. As one of the middle class, that would actually probably be a plus for me. For the amount my employer pays for the excellant health care package we have would then be paid to me. And with the savings of the type we see from Switzerland to Taiwan, it would save at least 25% per capita, and maybe as much as 50%.

And like in those countries, once you hit 65 your health care will end....