Obama's Margin of Victory in 2008 Determined Health Care Vote

jillian

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Once again, Nate Silver proves he's a genius:

Obama's Share Determined Dems' Votes on ObamaCare

What was the single biggest determinant of whether a Democrat voted yea or nay on the health care bill yesterday? Actually, it isn't too hard to figure out:



This reflects the breakdown in the roll call based on the percentage of the vote that Barack Obama received in each congressional district in 2008. Members who are retiring from politics are excluded; those who are vacating their seats to run for statewide office are listed by the percentage of the vote that Obama received throughout the state, rather than their home district. Those technicalities aside, the trend is pretty clear. All 12 Democrats running in a place where Obama received less than 40 percent of the vote decided against the bill, whereas 195 of 202 running where he received a majority voted for it (including 64 of 64 in places where Obama had at least 70 percent of the vote). The swing votes tended to come from those districts in which Obama received less than 50, but greater than 40 percent of the vote two Novmebers ago. (Although it makes only the slightest bit of difference, the Obama vote share alone was a better predictor than PVI, which accounts for the results of the last two elections.)
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right
 

rightwinger

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
 

EriktheRed

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
One thing that seems to not get mentioned in all of this is how it took him to rescue this bill from the abyss. It shouldn't have been necessary, but I guess it was.

Ever since his State of the Union address, where he basically said to his fellow Dems in Congress, "Hey, fuck Scott Brown! You gonna let these assholes do a victory dance just because they won a couple of elections recently? They're still the minority and they ain't shit".

He then demonstrated that two days later.


So here's to you, Mr. President...
 

WillowTree

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
One thing that seems to not get mentioned in all of this is how it took him to rescue this bill from the abyss. It shouldn't have been necessary, but I guess it was.

Ever since his State of the Union address, where he basically said to his fellow Dems in Congress, "Hey, fuck Scott Brown! You gonna let these assholes do a victory dance just because they won a couple of elections recently? They're still the minority and they ain't shit".

He then demonstrated that two days later.


So here's to you, Mr. President...
"they ain't shit" that's real presidential.. ain't it? but I believe he said it. :eusa_angel:
 

The Rabbi

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
He did do a great job. But the nature of the vote kind of gives the lie to the 'we the people' thing.
Actually it was Pelosi who twisted arms and gave bribes.
But facts and reasoning were never your strong points.
 

rightwinger

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
He did do a great job. But the nature of the vote kind of gives the lie to the 'we the people' thing.
Its the first time Obama has gotten his hands dirty and shown some effective leadership in getting something done.

Great accomplishment
 

rightwinger

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Great Job by President Obama in pushing this through. It wasn't easy but it will be part of his lasting legacy.

great Job
He did do a great job. But the nature of the vote kind of gives the lie to the 'we the people' thing.
Actually it was Pelosi who twisted arms and gave bribes.
But facts and reasoning were never your strong points.
And it was President Obama who made the phone calls to get the bill passed.

It is a major accomplishment for Pelosi though. One of the best performances by a Speaker in 20 years
 

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