Turkey is doing more than just trying to undermine FranceÂ’s leading role in the Libyan operation. AnkaraÂ’s broader strategy is to demonstrate its own capability and willingness to shape geopolitical events in a changing region in which it has vested economic and political interests. Turkey seems to be enjoying U.S. support in this strategy, with Libya emerging as the first area of coordination between the two countries since unrest began in North Africa and the Middle East.
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Cooperation between Turkey and the United States is unlikely to be limited to Libya. As North African and Middle Eastern countries deal with domestic unrest, the United States needs Turkey — an emerging power in the region — to help contain the instability that could result from government transitions in these countries. Turkey’s clout in Libya remains to be seen, but its involvement there will serve as a test of its ability to influence events in the region.
TurkeyÂ’s role is likely to be more influential in the Persian Gulf, where Ankara is becoming more involved in the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia over Bahrain. On March 14, Saudi forces intervened in Bahrain as part of the Gulf Cooperation Council Peninsula Shield Force. Since then, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been trying to assess each otherÂ’s capabilities and intentions, with the Saudis demanding the removal of Iranian assets from Bahrain before it withdraws its troops. Turkey, which has tried to prove that it can communicate with Iran, is attempting to facilitate dialogue between the Arabs and the Persians. This effort intensified during recent visits by Saudi and Bahraini foreign ministers to Turkey, which were followed by a March 21 phone conversation between Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Salehi.
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Turkey and the United States will have more opportunities to cooperate in the region, particularly in Iraq on the eve of the American withdrawal. Turkey has both the ability to talk with the Iranians and the ability to balance TehranÂ’s influence in Iraq. And with political dynamics in flux throughout the Middle East and North Africa, the interests of Ankara and of Washington will be converging again.