Tank
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National Journal projects the percentage of the white vote that President Obama will need to carry an individual state in 2012. The baseline simulation makes two key assumptions. First, that Obama captures as much of the minority vote in that state as he did in 2008. Second, that the minority population grows over the next two years at the same rate it has since 2000 and produces a commensurate increase in the minority share of the electorate. The chart shows where the growing minority presence will allow Obama to win states even if he loses support among whitesand where he will need to increase his support from whites to prevail.
NationalJournal.com - Where Obama?s White Vote Matters Less in 2012 - Friday, April 1, 2011
NationalJournal.com - Where Obama?s White Vote Matters Less in 2012 - Friday, April 1, 2011