A key quote from Nate Silver's website.
"In 41 of the 50 states, the average of the polls underestimated Donald Trump’s margin of victory."
It has been very amusing to see the excuses used by the main stream media and pollsters following their prediction debacle that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.
To recap: The New York Times said Clinton had a 95% probability of winning the White House. The Huffington Post said 99%. Nate Silver said 71.9%.
Larry Sabato and Nate Silver both predicted Hillary would win with 322 Electoral College votes. Ooppsie!
So why so wrong?
According to Nate Silver's site 41 out of 50 States polling was biased against Trump. In the key battleground States of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the polling was off around 6%. Some States the polling was biased against Trump by as much as 15%.
So how does the media and polling organizations credibly explain getting over 80% of State polling wrong. And it is interesting to note in the 2014 mid-terms the pollsters were also heavily biased against the GOP and got things very wrong. Hmmmm....wonder why?
How Much The Polls Missed By In Every State
Sherry
theDoctorisIn
Statistikhengst
"In 41 of the 50 states, the average of the polls underestimated Donald Trump’s margin of victory."
It has been very amusing to see the excuses used by the main stream media and pollsters following their prediction debacle that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.
To recap: The New York Times said Clinton had a 95% probability of winning the White House. The Huffington Post said 99%. Nate Silver said 71.9%.
Larry Sabato and Nate Silver both predicted Hillary would win with 322 Electoral College votes. Ooppsie!
So why so wrong?
According to Nate Silver's site 41 out of 50 States polling was biased against Trump. In the key battleground States of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the polling was off around 6%. Some States the polling was biased against Trump by as much as 15%.
So how does the media and polling organizations credibly explain getting over 80% of State polling wrong. And it is interesting to note in the 2014 mid-terms the pollsters were also heavily biased against the GOP and got things very wrong. Hmmmm....wonder why?
How Much The Polls Missed By In Every State
Sherry
theDoctorisIn
Statistikhengst
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