Now they are coming after you if your family does not get the vaccine

No, its not. Where do you think the physics comes from?

Observations in the way the ball acts. Those observations are broken down to mathematical models that predict the outcome of the balls location. Because the ball is a very simple and basic system, the calculation is extremely precise (but not perfect). Because human populations are not simple the math is much more ambiguous but those projections are just as mathematically based as the ball is. There actually is just as much physics in weather or not you are going to die from the flu, it is just far beyond our information gathering capabilities to make a prediction of that scale on physics. Statistics is much simpler and it is pretty darn effective.
Actually it is done by mathematical calculation with many variables.
 

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