No, Trump is not winning in the black vote, not by a longshot.

[Statistikhengst]

Poll disputes Donald Trump claim on black voter support - CNNPolitics.com

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Thursday that his plans to improve the economy for black Americans is why he is leading in the polls with black voters, though at least one recent poll disputes Trump's claim.

"I lead with almost every group, including with the African-American groups," Trump told reporters at an event in Greenville, South Carolina. "I have tremendous support."

Quinnipiac University released a national poll Thursday showing that while Trump is leading the Republican Party nationally, he is polling poorly with black Americans in the general election.

To illustrate this point, I have made screenshots from the Quinnipiac Poll that was released yesterday, which had 10 presidential matchups: Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump, plus one 3-way matchup: Clinton-Bush-Trump. Here are the screenshots from the 9 two-man race results, with important internals boxed in:

Hillary vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

Biden vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

We can learn a lot from this data. I found, in this case, the internals for the black vote, the womens' vote and the 50-64 and 65+ age groups to be quite enlightening. Qpiac also just started internals for the Hispanic vote - I will mention that last.

So, let's go to the Black vote for all 9 Matches, by GOP candidate:


Black Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 92 / Bush 3 (Clinton +89)
Biden 84 / Bush 3 (Biden +81)
Sanders 79 / Bush 4 (Sanders +75)

Black Vote DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 91 / Rubio 5 (Clinton +86)
Biden 84 / Rubio 4 (Biden +80)
Sanders 73 / Rubio 5 (Sanders +68)

Black Vote DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 91 / Trump 3 (Clinton +88)
Biden 86 / Trump 2 (Biden +84)
Sanders 76 / Trump 4 (Sanders +72)

So, Clinton never goes under 91% of the black vote, with margins of between +86% and 89%, exactly in line with both 2008 and 2012. Now, we saw some Obama /Romney polling in 2012 where Romney quite literally polled ZERO percent, but on election night, took 4%, so the GOP toplines of 2 to 5% could probably jump to 7-9%, since there are undecideds out there.

Biden's toplines and margins are slightly less than Hillary's and look a lot more like most Democrats have polled in early polling, including many Obama / Romney polls from 2011 and most of the Obama / McCain polls from 2008. Considering that there must be at least a +/-4.0 MoE among such smaller groups, Biden is actually doing as well against Trump as Hillary is.

So, no, in no way is Trump winning the Black vote. He may be doing well under the very, very few black Republicans who are responding to GOP polling, but nationally and in state for state polling, no.

Sanders does worse among Black voters and this confirms a theory that has been floating around that Sanders has a problem with Black voters. His margins range from +68 to +75, about 15 points under Hillary's margin in the same rubrik.

There is more.

Let's look at the female vote:


Womens' Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 47 / Bush 39 (Clinton +8)
Biden 47 / Bush 37 (Biden +10)
Sanders 45 / Bush 37 (Sanders +8)

Womens' DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 50 / Rubio 38 (Clinton +12)
Biden 47 / Rubio 38 (Biden +9)
Sanders 42 / Rubio 37 (Sanders +5)

Womens' DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 51 / Trump 36 (Clinton +15)
Biden 51 / Trump 36 (Biden +15)
Sanders 47 / Trump 36 (Sanders +11)


Rubio does the best against all 3 Democrats, losing to them in all three cases by smaller margins than either Bush or Trump. Remember, I have written repeatedly that Qpiac and been very bearish and not bullish on Hillary and only against Bush at present does she show a smaller lead in the women's vote than Obama's +11 from 2012.

Notice that Biden wins in two cases in the mens' vote and Sanders also ties one in the men's vote.

And notice how close it is in the 50-64 and also the +65 age brackets, categories that the GOP has often won by +15 or more.

To the Hispanic vote: Qpiac just started recording this last year and I need to research exactly how they categorize as hispanic and exactly what percentage of the electorate their definition of Hispanic is supposed to be, but the numbers do look at lot like 2012.

Just to remind, in 2012, the exit polls indicated Obama 71 / Romney 27 in the Latino vote (Obama +44)

So, let's look at Qpiac's Latino vote stats:



Hispanic Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 55 / Bush 35 (Clinton +20)
Biden 53 / Bush 35 (Biden +18)
Sanders 49 / Bush 36 (Sanders +13)

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +32)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +13)

Hispanic DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 67 / Trump 21 (Clinton +46)
Biden 65 / Trump 24 (Biden +41)
Sanders 57 / Trump 23 (Sanders +34)


In all three matchup cases, Hillary scores a higher margin against Bush, Rubio or Trump than either Biden or Sanders. In all three cases, Biden has the second highest margins and Sanders has the third highest margins.

Against all three Democrats, Bush consistently comes the closest and Trump does the worst. Clinton's +46 over Trump in the Latino vote is the same as Obama's margin from 2008.


In this posting here:

Ricky Martin Urges Latinos To Unite Against Donald Trump | Page 2 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

I showed that most likely, in order to break 50% nationally in 2016, assuming that trends continue as they have, then the GOP will need 47% of the Latino vote. They are nowhere close to that goal.

FYI. Lots of data to discuss.

And yes, this is ONLY one poll, as I indicate a lot, but Conservatives were so hot to quote Quinnipiac when it showed her struggling in Pennsylvania and Florida and Iowa, and since this is the same Quinnipiac, I assume they will accept these numbers too, right?

Chuckle, chuckle...

And I can go through the internals of many, many polls and show similar results to these.

 

[Ravi]

Trump wants to end birthright citizenship. Why would a black person support that?

 

[Camp]

The gentle news media needs to call Trump out on his bold faced lies. More journalist need to be aggressive in their questioning. They just have to get over his bullying methods like those used on Kelly and Ramos.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trump wants to end birthright citizenship. Why would a black person support that?

Indeed. Why would ANYONE support it?

 

[iamwhatiseem]

He is the wrong color.
That and he doesn't want to continue to escalate free money for nothing, and I have no doubt wants to reinstate Clinton's welfare reforms that Obama has trashed.
So no, blacks will not vote for Trump.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Just an FYI on these numbers...

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +20)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +36)

Biden is +32 and Sanders is +13.

Yes, T-Rump is lying his posterior off and he needs to be called out on these canards by the media.

The electorate has a right to know that T-Rump plays fast and loose with the facts.

The data proves that his is BS'ing his sycophantic supporters and I have no doubt that they will deny it but the math never lies.

 

[tigerred59]

Unless the democrats get a viable candidate to run next year, minus Hillary and my dear friend Bernie....the GOP got this...please Joe and Liz, please please run

 

[Statistikhengst]

Just an FYI on these numbers...

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +20)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +36)

Biden is +32 and Sanders is +13.

Yes, T-Rump is lying his posterior off and he needs to be called out on these canards by the media.

The electorate has a right to know that T-Rump plays fast and loose with the facts.

The data proves that his is BS'ing his sycophantic supporters and I have no doubt that they will deny it but the math never lies.

Corrected. Thanks for the good eye! Inputting all this stuff sometimes plays tricks with my eyes.... makes them all glaaaaaazzzzyyyyyyy...................

 

[Statistikhengst]

Unless the democrats get a viable candidate to run next year, minus Hillary and my dear friend Bernie....the GOP got this...please Joe and Liz, please please run

Uhm, no. The Democrats are going to be just fine with Hillary.

Thanks.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Unless the democrats get a viable candidate to run next year, minus Hillary and my dear friend Bernie....the GOP got this...please Joe and Liz, please please run

Uhm, no. The Democrats are going to be just fine with Hillary.

Thanks.

 

[RKMBrown]

Poll disputes Donald Trump claim on black voter support - CNNPolitics.com

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Thursday that his plans to improve the economy for black Americans is why he is leading in the polls with black voters, though at least one recent poll disputes Trump's claim.

"I lead with almost every group, including with the African-American groups," Trump told reporters at an event in Greenville, South Carolina. "I have tremendous support."

Quinnipiac University released a national poll Thursday showing that while Trump is leading the Republican Party nationally, he is polling poorly with black Americans in the general election.

To illustrate this point, I have made screenshots from the Quinnipiac Poll that was released yesterday, which had 10 presidential matchups: Clinton, Biden and Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump, plus one 3-way matchup: Clinton-Bush-Trump. Here are the screenshots from the 9 two-man race results, with important internals boxed in:

Hillary vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

View attachment 48597


Biden vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

View attachment 48596


Sanders vs. Bush, Rubio and Trump:

View attachment 48598


We can learn a lot from this data. I found, in this case, the internals for the black vote, the womens' vote and the 50-64 and 65+ age groups to be quite enlightening. Qpiac also just started internals for the Hispanic vote - I will mention that last.

So, let's go to the Black vote for all 9 Matches, by GOP candidate:


Black Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 92 / Bush 3 (Clinton +89)
Biden 84 / Bush 3 (Biden +81)
Sanders 79 / Bush 4 (Sanders +75)

Black Vote DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 91 / Rubio 5 (Clinton +86)
Biden 84 / Rubio 4 (Biden +80)
Sanders 73 / Rubio 5 (Sanders +68)

Black Vote DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 91 / Trump 3 (Clinton +88)
Biden 86 / Trump 2 (Biden +84)
Sanders 76 / Trump 4 (Sanders +72)

So, Clinton never goes under 91% of the black vote, with margins of between +86% and 89%, exactly in line with both 2008 and 2012. Now, we saw some Obama /Romney polling in 2012 where Romney quite literally polled ZERO percent, but on election night, took 4%, so the GOP toplines of 2 to 5% could probably jump to 7-9%, since there are undecideds out there.

Biden's toplines and margins are slightly less than Hillary's and look a lot more like most Democrats have polled in early polling, including many Obama / Romney polls from 2011 and most of the Obama / McCain polls from 2008. Considering that there must be at least a +/-4.0 MoE among such smaller groups, Biden is actually doing as well against Trump as Hillary is.

So, no, in no way is Trump winning the Black vote. He may be doing well under the very, very few black Republicans who are responding to GOP polling, but nationally and in state for state polling, no.

Sanders does worse among Black voters and this confirms a theory that has been floating around that Sanders has a problem with Black voters. His margins range from +68 to +75, about 15 points under Hillary's margin in the same rubrik.

There is more.

Let's look at the female vote:


Womens' Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 47 / Bush 39 (Clinton +8)
Biden 47 / Bush 37 (Biden +10)
Sanders 45 / Bush 37 (Sanders +8)

Womens' DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 50 / Rubio 38 (Clinton +12)
Biden 47 / Rubio 38 (Biden +9)
Sanders 42 / Rubio 37 (Sanders +5)

Womens' DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 51 / Trump 36 (Clinton +15)
Biden 51 / Trump 36 (Biden +15)
Sanders 47 / Trump 36 (Sanders +11)


Rubio does the best against all 3 Democrats, losing to them in all three cases by smaller margins than either Bush or Trump. Remember, I have written repeatedly that Qpiac and been very bearish and not bullish on Hillary and only against Bush at present does she show a smaller lead in the women's vote than Obama's +11 from 2012.

Notice that Biden wins in two cases in the mens' vote and Sanders also ties one in the men's vote.

And notice how close it is in the 50-64 and also the +65 age brackets, categories that the GOP has often won by +15 or more.

To the Hispanic vote: Qpiac just started recording this last year and I need to research exactly how they categorize as hispanic and exactly what percentage of the electorate their definition of Hispanic is supposed to be, but the numbers do look at lot like 2012.

Just to remind, in 2012, the exit polls indicated Obama 71 / Romney 27 in the Latino vote (Obama +44)

So, let's look at Qpiac's Latino vote stats:



Hispanic Vote DEMS vs. Bush (Jeb!):

Clinton 55 / Bush 35 (Clinton +20)
Biden 53 / Bush 35 (Biden +18)
Sanders 49 / Bush 36 (Sanders +13)

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +32)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +13)

Hispanic DEMS vs. Trump:

Clinton 67 / Trump 21 (Clinton +46)
Biden 65 / Trump 24 (Biden +41)
Sanders 57 / Trump 23 (Sanders +34)


In all three matchup cases, Hillary scores a higher margin against Bush, Rubio or Trump than either Biden or Sanders. In all three cases, Biden has the second highest margins and Sanders has the third highest margins.

Against all three Democrats, Bush consistently comes the closest and Trump does the worst. Clinton's +46 over Trump in the Latino vote is the same as Obama's margin from 2008.


In this posting here:

Ricky Martin Urges Latinos To Unite Against Donald Trump | Page 2 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

I showed that most likely, in order to break 50% nationally in 2016, assuming that trends continue as they have, then the GOP will need 47% of the Latino vote. They are nowhere close to that goal.

FYI. Lots of data to discuss.

And yes, this is ONLY one poll, as I indicate a lot, but Conservatives were so hot to quote Quinnipiac when it showed her struggling in Pennsylvania and Florida and Iowa, and since this is the same Quinnipiac, I assume they will accept these numbers too, right?

Chuckle, chuckle...

And I can go through the internals of many, many polls and show similar results to these.

Hey Retard... yeah you.. He was talking about likely republican voters you dumb ass. How long have you been ignorant to the fact that 90-95% of blacks will only vote for a democrat? How long have you been living in your mom's basement?

 

[gipper]

The gentle news media needs to call Trump out on his bold faced lies. More journalist need to be aggressive in their questioning. They just have to get over his bullying methods like those used on Kelly and Ramos.

Expecting the media to do their job, is terribly naive. They have let Big Ears lie every day without questioning or comment.

 

[LilOlLady]

Trump wants to end birthright citizenship. Why would a black person support that?

Because it is not a black thing? I am diehard liberal and Trump has my vote and the vote of my family.

 

[Ravi]

Trump wants to end birthright citizenship. Why would a black person support that?

Because it is not a black thing? I am diehard liberal and Trump has my vote and the vote of my family.

If a president could end birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, he or she could end it for anyone. Retroactively even.

 

[LilOlLady]

Just an FYI on these numbers...

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +20)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +36)

Biden is +32 and Sanders is +13.

Yes, T-Rump is lying his posterior off and he needs to be called out on these canards by the media.

The electorate has a right to know that T-Rump plays fast and loose with the facts.

The data proves that his is BS'ing his sycophantic supporters and I have no doubt that they will deny it but the math never lies.

Trump is the only one that is not lying.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Just an FYI on these numbers...

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +20)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +36)

Biden is +32 and Sanders is +13.

Yes, T-Rump is lying his posterior off and he needs to be called out on these canards by the media.

The electorate has a right to know that T-Rump plays fast and loose with the facts.

The data proves that his is BS'ing his sycophantic supporters and I have no doubt that they will deny it but the math never lies.

Trump is the only one that is not lying.

T-Rump lied about not knowing who Ramos was right after telling him to go back to Univision. He subsequently proved that he was lying when he said that Ramos was included in his lawsuit against Univision.

And that is not all that T-Rump is lying about.

 

[GHook93]

Um he was talking about the primary. All Republicans will get smoked, because blacks are larger uneducated, uninformed, lazy and support the Democrats because they are honestly too stupid to know better!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ravi]

Um he was talking about the primary. All Republicans will get smoked, because blacks are larger uneducated, uninformed, lazy and support the Democrats because they are honestly too stupid to know better!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Spoken like a true racist. Good job, ghook!

 

[tigerred59]

Just an FYI on these numbers...

Hispanic DEMS vs. Rubio:

Clinton 57 / Rubio 26 (Clinton +31)
Biden 52 / Rubio 20 (Biden +20)
Sanders 49 / Rubio 36 (Sanders +36)

Biden is +32 and Sanders is +13.

Yes, T-Rump is lying his posterior off and he needs to be called out on these canards by the media.

The electorate has a right to know that T-Rump plays fast and loose with the facts.

The data proves that his is BS'ing his sycophantic supporters and I have no doubt that they will deny it but the math never lies.

This has got to the biggest snake oil salesmen in US history. The most powerful country in the world, ie China could with just a drop of little ink, bring this country to its knees and then some. China owns America and has for a very long time. And instead of Trump, going after the greed of Wall Street, who he himself is apart of the outsourcing of American jobs with his apparel line, he bullshits the american stupid with these outrages claims without one GOP contender calling his lying as out.

Trump is systematic of why this country houses so so many dumb stupid people who see things from a yesterday prospective and absolutely refuse to acknowledge a new decade and era of changes.

 

[tigerred59]

Unless the democrats get a viable candidate to run next year, minus Hillary and my dear friend Bernie....the GOP got this...please Joe and Liz, please please run

Uhm, no. The Democrats are going to be just fine with Hillary.

Thanks.

Friend the riches that the Clintons have amounted over the years through Bill, is gonna kill her chances, just wait and see. The Clintons took money from kids in wheelchairs, that's how bad its gonna get...its gonna be nasty and you heard it hear first.