No F-16 to Taiwan because of no chance of survival in attack

[zzzz]

A secret Pentagon report purports to that the Taiwan Air Forces would be decimated in a Chinese missile attack and therefore it makes no sense to sell F-16's to them.
Pentagon report backs US refusal to sell F-16 jets - Taipei Times

Extrapolating this a little it would seem that Pentagon would also believe that land based US Air Forces stationed in that theater would also be decimated by Chinese missiles. This conclusion has also been reached by think tanks here in the US so it is no surprise.

It appears though that the decision not to sell F-16's is because the Chinese would be offended. Why worry about whether a customer can survive an attack? Its all about the money and jobs isn't it?

 

[waltky]

Taiwan needs newer class of F-16 fighter jets...

US-Taiwan fighter jet deal remains grounded
03 Oct 2011 : Block on US sale of F16 Fighting Falcons ruffles feathers amid the island nation's military.

On a gloomy, storm-cast morning, Lieutenant Colonel Cheng Kuang Jen looks out over the runway, as two of his squadron's fighter jets take off on their first patrol of the day. His mood is as sombre as the weather. The team leader of the 4th Tactical Fighter Wing of Taiwan's Air Force, he had been hoping for months that the US would approve the sale of a newer class of F16 jet fighter planes.

Instead, the Obama administration decided it would only, in a deal worth $5.85 billion, provide upgrades to the existing fleet. Cheng believes the debate has been wrongly focused on the age of the island's F16s. "The F16s we have are not that old," the Lt Col says. "What we need to replace are our F5s. I don't understand why no one in America seems to be talking about that." You could put it on spin.

In announcing the upgrade, Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, focused his comments on how significant the package was. "This retrofit programme will provide a substantial increase in the survivability, the reliability, and the overall combat capabilities of Taiwan's 145 F16 A and B fighter aircraft." What he didn't mention is the fact that Taiwan's request for new F16 C and D fighters were to specifically replace the roughly 60 F5 jets that are already halfway through their third decade of service, and in desperate need of being retired (Taiwan's current fleet of F16 A and Bs are only about 13 years old).

The case for such was made more pressing on September 15, when a twin-seater F5 fighter - along with an F5 reconnaissance plane - crashed into the mountains in northeastern Taiwan, killing three servicemen. It was the sixth flight mishap involving F5s in seven years. Taiwan defence officials tell Al Jazeera that US decision-makers were made very much aware that the F5s had mostly been relegated to training and intelligence gathering missions due to their unreliability, which meant the overall number of fighters available for Taiwan's defence was rapidly shrinking.

Relations with China fragile

 

[waltky]

Uncle Ferd says dem politicians find it hard to tell dem lobbyists No...

Taiwan spending on US lobbyists to push F-16C/D sale
Thu, Oct 13, 2011 - HARD AT WORK: The nine lobbying companies are still getting paid to work on persuading influential members of Congress to sell to Taiwan the planes it needs

Taipei has employed nine different lobbying companies and spent more than US$1 million so far this year in an attempt to persuade Washington to sell it F-16C/D aircraft, according to The Hill, a paper focusing on Capitol Hill. Most of the campaign has been aimed at pushing the US Congress to put pressure on US President Barack Obama. Those efforts have been led by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US (TECRO) in Washington. According to The Hill, the lobbyists now say that Obama decided against the F-16 sale “for fear of provoking China.” Sean King, vice president of lobbyist Park Strategies, told The Hill: “Considering Taiwan would only use these planes for defensive purposes, it was a short-sighted blunder on the administration’s part not to sell Taiwan the new planes.”

“We can’t let ourselves be bullied by Beijing. After all, the United States is mainland China’s No. 1 nation-state export market. Beijing needs us more than we sometimes realize,” King said. US Justice Department records seen by The Hill show that former Republican senators Alfonse D’Amato and Frank Murkowski and former Republican representative Vito Fossella are among the lobbyists on Taiwan’s payroll. Lobbyists from Park Strategies — D’Amato’s firm — contacted members of Congress 44 times about the F-16 sale and have been paid US$250,000 so far this year. Another lobbying company, Orion Strategies — headed by Randy Scheunemann, a foreign policy adviser to Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign — has earned US$78,000 working on the F-16 campaign.

Among other tactics, the lobbyists helped persuade 181 House members and 45 senators to sign letters to the White House pushing for the sale. It appears the lobbyists are still being paid and are now trying to build support for congressional bills that would force Obama to sell the F-16s to Taiwan. While difficult, passing such a bill is “possible,” one of the lobbyists says. In an article headlined “The Taiwanese Disconnect,” the Wall Street Journal said this week that the decision not to sell the F-16s was a “victory for China” and added: “While it’s true Washington must put its own interests first, those interests aren’t served by helping turn Taiwan into a de facto garrison for the People’s Liberation Army.”

And Joseph Bosco, writing in the conservative magazine the Weekly Standard, said: “It is far too fatalistic to conclude that Communist China’s incorporation of democratic Taiwan is inevitable and equally defeatist to believe that the US cannot realistically prevent such an outcome.” “The Obama administration’s upgrades to Taiwan’s current fleet of F-16s cannot match the capabilities of China’s Su-27 and Su-30 fighter aircraft, but the faster new F-16C/D models which Taiwan has urgently requested would fit the bill,” said Bosco, a national security consultant who served as the China desk officer at the Pentagon from 2005 to 2006.

Source

 

[waltky]

Granny lookin' out the window to see if any Chinamens comin' down the road...

US intelligence on alert: news report
Sat, Oct 22, 2011 - MESSAGE: Citing China’s use of military tests to send political signals, the report comes as a US official is visiting Beijing and in the wake of the US-Taiwan arms deal

The Washington Times is reporting that US intelligence agencies are on alert for unexpected Chinese military activities this weekend. While there is no hint about the possible nature of such activities, they could be timed to coincide with the visit of White House National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon to Beijing. According to the Washington Times, they could be part of the Chinese response to the US$5.8 billion arms package for Taiwan that was announced by the US last month. Senior Washington-based US intelligence sources approached by the Taipei Times refused to discuss the issue, describing it as “too sensitive,” but they did not deny the report. The sources said that Chinese military activity was “always a possibility,” but refused to speculate on what form it might take or just how likely it was.

As previously reported by the Taipei Times, the US is expecting to hear new protests about US arms sales to Taiwan during Donilon’s visit. The Washington Times said that the administration of US President Barack Obama was “braced for a tough Chinese reaction.” “The US intelligence community so far is unable to assess authoritatively just what China will do,” it said. The newspaper said that so far Beijing has postponed the visit of Admiral Robert Willard, the commander of US forces in the Pacific, to China and blocked a visit by a US Army band. “Recent comments by Chinese Gen. Luo Yuan, Beijing’s high-profile military hawk, has provided what defense officials say are hints of ominous things to come,” the Washington Times said.

“Intelligence analysts were left trying to discern Gen. Luo’s meaning and whether the comments signal that China’s military plans a high-profile response,” the newspaper added. Without warning, China conducted its first test flight of a new J-20 stealth jet during US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ visit to Beijing in January. “China in the past used missile tests to send political signals to its main superpower rival, so US intelligence agencies are on alert for any unexpected military activities during Donilon’s visit to China which begins this weekend,” the Washington Times said. According to the newspaper, the US military is “ready for any provocation.” A US Navy carrier strike group led by the USS George Washington is on patrol near the South China Sea and the assault ship USS Essex, with Marines on board, is in the Philippines Sea.

Source

 

[martybegan]

The "they would all be destroyed on the ground" theory only works in one scenario: The complete out of the blue suprise attack. Other scenarios would involve dispersal of fighters to smaller, multiple runways, increased air defense systems at main bases, a hot pad alert status, and more craft in the air at any given time.

 

[Mad Scientist]

I'm sure many of our planes would be decimated by a first attack too so no use in making them right?

Sounds like a pussy way to cave in to the ChiComms on Taiwan.