New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

[Sunsettommy]

Watts Up With That?

10 fallacies about Arctic sea ice & polar bear survival refute misleading ‘facts’
Charles Rotter / 4 hours ago July 9, 2020

Reposted from Dr. Susan Crockford’s Polar Bear Science
Posted on July 8, 2020 |

This updated blog post of mine from last year is as pertinent now as it was then: it’s a fully-referenced rebuttal to the misleading ‘facts’ so often presented this time of year to support the notion that polar bears are being harmed due to lack of summer sea ice. Polar Bears International developed ‘Arctic Sea Ice Day’ (15 July) to promote their skewed interpretation of polar bear science at the height of the Arctic melt season. This year I’ve add a ‘Polar Bears and the Arctic Food Chain‘ graphic, which readers are free to download and share. For further information, see “The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.

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Summer sea ice loss is finally ramping up: first year is disappearing, as it has done every year since ice came to the Arctic millions of years ago. But critical misconceptions, fallacies, and disinformation abound regarding Arctic sea ice and polar bear survival. Ahead of Arctic Sea Ice Day (15 July), here are 10 fallacies that teachers and parents especially need to know about.

As always, please contact me if you would like to examine any of the references included in this post. These references are what make my efforts different from the activist organization Polar Bears International. PBI virtually never provide references within the content it provides, including material it presents as ‘educational’. Links to previous posts of mine that provide expanded explanations, images, and additional references are also provided.

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Ten fallacies and disinformation about sea ice

1. ‘Sea ice is to the Arctic as soil is to a forest‘. False: this all-or-nothing analogy is a specious comparison. In fact, Arctic sea ice is like a big wetland pond that dries up a bit every summer, where the amount of habitat available to sustain aquatic plants, amphibians and insects is reduced but does not disappear completely. Wetland species are adapted to this habitat: they are able to survive the reduced water availability in the dry season because it happens every year. Similarly, sea ice will always reform in the winter and stay until spring. During the two million or so years that ice has formed in the Arctic, there has always been ice in the winter and spring (even in warmer Interglacials than this one). Moreover, I am not aware of a single modern climate model that predicts winter ice will fail to develop over the next 80 years or so. See Amstrup et al. 2007; Durner et al. 2009; Gibbard et al. 2007; Polak et al. 2010; Stroeve et al. 2007.

LINK

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More evidence Polar Bears are NOT in danger, they are actually thriving these days.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Additional links:

A Geological Perspective of Polar Bears

S. Beaufort polar bear population stable since 2010 not declining new report reveals



Polar bear researchers try very hard to make good news in Kane Basin sound trivial

 

[fncceo]

Additional links:

A Geological Perspective of Polar Bears

View attachment 402831


S. Beaufort polar bear population stable since 2010 not declining new report reveals



Polar bear researchers try very hard to make good news in Kane Basin sound trivial

Polar Bears, always DTF.

 

[Crick]

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations are apparently deserving of the “climate-change denier” moniker.
For that matter, the audacious scientists who risk the ire of the AGW gatekeepers to interview these community leaders and then publish their results in scientific journals apparently must be classified as “climate-change deniers” too.

Why? Because there appears to be widespread agreement among Inuit observers that polar bears are skilled swimmers who can catch seals in open water (and not just from sea ice surfaces). This observation wholly contradicts the “well established” and “overwhelming” scientific evidence identified in Harvey et al. (2017) that says polar bears can only catch seals from a sea ice platform.
“The [native populations’] view of polar bears as effective open-water hunters is not consistent with the Western scientific understanding that bears rely on the sea ice platform for catching prey (Stirling and McEwan, 1975; Smith, 1980). The implications of this disagreement are paramount, given that scientists suggest that the greatest threat to polar bears associated with a decrease in sea ice is a significant decrease in access to marine mammal prey (Stirling and Derocher, 1993; Derocher et al., 2004).” — Laforest et al., 2018

‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015.

LINK

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It is distressing that Polar Bears obstinately refuse to decline rapidly when the the Summer Sea ice did from 2007 .....

From your article ( BTW, your link no longer works)
Mainly by aerial survey line transect distance sampling methods, we estimated that 264 (95% CI = 199 – 363) bears were in Svalbard, close to 241 bears estimated for August 2004. The pack ice area had an estimated 709 bears (95% CI = 334 – 1026). The pack ice and the total (Svalbard + pack ice, 973 bears, 95% CI = 665 – 1884) both had higher estimates compared to August 2004 (444 and 685 bears, respectively), but the increase was not significant. There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has yet led to a reduction in population size. The carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly, but recovery from earlier depletion up to 1973 may still be ongoing.

This study examined only bear populations in Svalbard and the Norwegian Arctic and represent less than 4% of the total Polar Bear population. Note the comments stating "the increase was not significant" and "the carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly"

 

[Sunsettommy]

No Tricks Zone

New Research Finds Polar Bear Numbers Up 42% Since 2004 – Survival Rates Unaffected By Sea Ice Availability

By Kenneth Richard on 12. March 2018

SELECTED EXCERPT:

The native Inuit peoples who have lived in the Arctic and observed polar bear hunting practices for generations are apparently deserving of the “climate-change denier” moniker.
For that matter, the audacious scientists who risk the ire of the AGW gatekeepers to interview these community leaders and then publish their results in scientific journals apparently must be classified as “climate-change deniers” too.

Why? Because there appears to be widespread agreement among Inuit observers that polar bears are skilled swimmers who can catch seals in open water (and not just from sea ice surfaces). This observation wholly contradicts the “well established” and “overwhelming” scientific evidence identified in Harvey et al. (2017) that says polar bears can only catch seals from a sea ice platform.
“The [native populations’] view of polar bears as effective open-water hunters is not consistent with the Western scientific understanding that bears rely on the sea ice platform for catching prey (Stirling and McEwan, 1975; Smith, 1980). The implications of this disagreement are paramount, given that scientists suggest that the greatest threat to polar bears associated with a decrease in sea ice is a significant decrease in access to marine mammal prey (Stirling and Derocher, 1993; Derocher et al., 2004).” — Laforest et al., 2018

‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015.

LINK

=====

It is distressing that Polar Bears obstinately refuse to decline rapidly when the the Summer Sea ice did from 2007 .....

From your article ( BTW, your link no longer works)
Mainly by aerial survey line transect distance sampling methods, we estimated that 264 (95% CI = 199 – 363) bears were in Svalbard, close to 241 bears estimated for August 2004. The pack ice area had an estimated 709 bears (95% CI = 334 – 1026). The pack ice and the total (Svalbard + pack ice, 973 bears, 95% CI = 665 – 1884) both had higher estimates compared to August 2004 (444 and 685 bears, respectively), but the increase was not significant. There is no evidence that the fast reduction of sea-ice habitat in the area has yet led to a reduction in population size. The carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly, but recovery from earlier depletion up to 1973 may still be ongoing.

This study examined only bear populations in Svalbard and the Norwegian Arctic and represent less than 4% of the total Polar Bear population. Note the comments stating "the increase was not significant" and "the carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly"

Here is the link


In the link was this, which was already in front of you, but no counterpoint from you on it.:

"‘There’s Too Many Polar Bears Now’
Not only do the generational observations indicate that polar bears’ hunting practices are not duly harmed by sea ice reduction, but community participants consistently report thriving and growing polar bear populations — especially in recent years.

An extensive analysis by York et al. (2016), relying heavily on native reports, concluded that 12 of 13 Canadian Arctic sub-populations have been stable or growing in recent decades. Wong et al. (2017) recorded Inuit community members reporting “there’s too many polar bears now.”

Even aerial analysis has revealed stable to growing polar bear populations across wide swaths of the Arctic. Aars et al. (2017), for example, report that there is “no evidence” that reduced sea ice has led to a reduction in polar bear population size. To the contrary, these scientists found that polar bears living near the Barents Sea increased in number by 42% — from 685 to 973 — between 2004 and 2015."

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You ignored most of the article for a reason that is obvious, just talk about a small section of the article, you write:

This study examined only bear populations in Svalbard and the Norwegian Arctic and represent less than 4% of the total Polar Bear population. Note the comments stating "the increase was not significant" and "the carrying capacity is likely reduced significantly"

They didn't say it was declining at all, thus your point was what again?

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You ignored post 22 completely, was it this photo that scared you away?

 

[Sunsettommy]

Watts Up With That?

Ten fat polar bears filmed raiding a stalled Russian garbage truck
Charles Rotter / 20 hours ago October 22, 2020

Excerpt:

From the Siberian Times today (20 October) is a story with few facts but a fabulous video of six fat adults and four fat cubs as they set siege to a stalled open garbage truck in the Russian Arctic. It may have been filmed on Novaya Zemlya but that has not been confirmed.

LINK

They are here to stay.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Additional posts to add here showing Polar Bears are fine as a group in the far North,

Local guide says W Hudson Bay bears have recently ‘put on a lot of fat and are healthy’​

Report: Polar Bear Numbers Continued to Grow in 2020 Despite Climate Fear​

Polar bears are thriving: an ICSC Canada short video​

Choose verifiable facts over emotional narratives on polar bear conservation​

Earth Day 2021: celebrate abundant sea ice habitat for polar bear feeding and mating​

More to come.