New Fox News Poll- Obama 46, Romney 39

[JakeStarkey]

IF . . .MR takes the South, he is going to need an industrial state (PA or OH) and probably WI.

I have said from the beginning, that the race would be tight, and MR had a fighting, uphill chance.

As long as MR keeps the race focused on the economy, then the battle continues. If the economy picks up in July and August, Mitt is going to have a tough time.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I never buy into these polls because I know democrats flood any poll and republicans don't.

Sure you do.

 

[NYcarbineer]

All of the change from last month in the Fox poll was in 7 points that Romney lost to 'other' or undecided.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Wisconsin is a toss up now. O is losing serious ground in Michigan also.

 

[NYcarbineer]

That this 7 point lead for Obama shows up in a FOXNEWS poll is a thing of beauty.

The usual chorus of liberal bias!! squawkers sits in stunned silence.

 

[Liability]

The poll that matters is the Electoral College poll of states.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Obama leads 257 to 170 in non swing states
That means Romney has to take 100 of 125 toss up electoral votes remaining

Romney has to make up some serious ground

Your map seems to differ from this map: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

And it ignores the huge "flux" in Wisconsin and the probability of NC going Red.

Also: RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map seems to indicate (at present) a different number on the site than the figure you conjure up.

Your map doesn't list the polls that support its determination of red vs blue. Real Clear does. Real Clear also averages all available polls to avoid outliers. In any current electoral college map. Romney is still significantly behind. It is not a level playing field and Romney is starting out at a disadvantage

You are correct in the current Real Clear has it 243 Obama to 170 Romney

Even if we were to credit the current polls as informative (or even accurate snapshots), that tells us precious little about how the voters are going to end up voting. And I do mean the likely voters.

It's interesting that you are one of the guys who frequently makes mention of the fact that these polls, this early, do not mean all that much. But here you are making it sound as though the present polls have actual meaning (translating into the claim that Romney is the one who must climb the steepest hills).



We have a long way to go. And while I have (sadly) plenty of faith in the ability of the Romney forces to muck things up from time to time, I ALSO have plenty of faith in the ability of the electorate to see through the hackery that IS the re-election campaign for The ONE.

Let's put it this way. States which you seem to consider "safely" in the Obama column may bery well become more and more "in play" as the crazy election season and campaigns progress.

The ONE will eventually have to address his hideous RECORD, after all.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The wacks from the far left and the far right read far too much into the polls. Their hopes.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Poll is of registered voters not likely voters.

 

[rightwinger]

Your map seems to differ from this map: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

And it ignores the huge "flux" in Wisconsin and the probability of NC going Red.

Also: RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map seems to indicate (at present) a different number on the site than the figure you conjure up.

Your map doesn't list the polls that support its determination of red vs blue. Real Clear does. Real Clear also averages all available polls to avoid outliers. In any current electoral college map. Romney is still significantly behind. It is not a level playing field and Romney is starting out at a disadvantage

You are correct in the current Real Clear has it 243 Obama to 170 Romney

Even if we were to credit the current polls as informative (or even accurate snapshots), that tells us precious little about how the voters are going to end up voting. And I do mean the likely voters.

It's interesting that you are one of the guys who frequently makes mention of the fact that these polls, this early, do not mean all that much. But here you are making it sound as though the present polls have actual meaning (translating into the claim that Romney is the one who must climb the steepest hills).



We have a long way to go. And while I have (sadly) plenty of faith in the ability of the Romney forces to muck things up from time to time, I ALSO have plenty of faith in the ability of the electorate to see through the hackery that IS the re-election campaign for The ONE.

Let's put it this way. States which you seem to consider "safely" in the Obama column may bery well become more and more "in play" as the crazy election season and campaigns progress.

The ONE will eventually have to address his hideous RECORD, after all.

You mock the current polls but then say Obama will have to address his hideous RECORD

Current polls are of people who are well aware of Obama's "hideous" record to include Obamacare, the unemployment rate and the fact that he doesn't have a birth certificate...yet they still prefer Obama in an overwhelming number of states

If Romney runs on status quo, he will lose big
Something has to change between now and November to change blue states red

Right now, I thik Obama is better positioned to steal red states from Romney than Romney is positioned to steal blue states from Obama

 

[teapartysamurai]

Poll is of registered voters not likely voters.

Rasmussen has it Romney +1 and it's of LIKELY Voters. Likely voters will always be the most reliable poll.

Interesting that AP has Obama +8 but their sample is only of "general population."

Anytime you see a poll and it's not "likely voters" it's immediately suspect. Registered voters is good, but it's not as accurate as "likely voters."

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[JakeStarkey]

Poll is of registered voters not likely voters.

Rasmussen has it Romney +1 and it's of LIKELY Voters. Likely voters will always be the most reliable poll.

Interesting that AP has Obama +8 but their sample is only of "general population."

Anytime you see a poll and it's not "likely voters" it's immediately suspect. Registered voters is good, but it's not as accurate as "likely voters."

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

And the hack ignores Fox poll.

 

[Dr.House]

The poll that matters is the Electoral College poll of states.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Obama leads 257 to 170 in non swing states
That means Romney has to take 100 of 125 toss up electoral votes remaining

Romney has to make up some serious ground

Barry down to 243 now... Trending downward...

Pay atention...

 

[Dr.House]

Poll is of registered voters not likely voters.

Rasmussen has it Romney +1 and it's of LIKELY Voters. Likely voters will always be the most reliable poll.

Interesting that AP has Obama +8 but their sample is only of "general population."

Anytime you see a poll and it's not "likely voters" it's immediately suspect. Registered voters is good, but it's not as accurate as "likely voters."

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

And the hack ignores Fox poll.

Faux News, right Fakey?

 

[teapartysamurai]

BTW, that Fox poll was HEAVILY WEIGHTED with Democrats.

Liberals always want to make it out like Fox is conservative. But the truth is their highest rated shows lean to the right (Hannity, O'Reilly) but most of Fox identifies themselves as Democrats.

Look the poll itself and they will tell you how they weight the poll:

Democrats: 42%, Republicans: 34%, Independents: 20%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Now, that's is HEAVILY weighted with Democrats.

Not accurate.

Rasmussen who does "likely voters" makes that clear:

Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Now that is a far cry from how the Fox Poll is weighted. When you see a poll that's HEAVILY WEIGHTED with Democrats (and most of the polls are) it's inaccurate.

That's why you are better sticking with Rasmussen. They aren't perfect, just much better.

 

[Dr.House]

That this 7 point lead for Obama shows up in a FOXNEWS poll is a thing of beauty.

The usual chorus of liberal bias!! squawkers sits in stunned silence.

Faux News is now credible to the leftanistas?

 

[Liability]

That this 7 point lead for Obama shows up in a FOXNEWS poll is a thing of beauty.

The usual chorus of liberal bias!! squawkers sits in stunned silence.

Faux News is now credible to the leftanistas?

To the lefties FoxNews IS the SOURCE and FONT of all truth (provided that they report what the lefties have already "decided").

 

[teapartysamurai]

That this 7 point lead for Obama shows up in a FOXNEWS poll is a thing of beauty.

The usual chorus of liberal bias!! squawkers sits in stunned silence.

Faux News is now credible to the leftanistas?

Only because it's telling them what they want to hear.

But if you see how the poll is weighted vs. Rasmussen, you can see how inaccurate the Fox poll is.

 

[Liability]

The poll that matters is the Electoral College poll of states.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Obama leads 257 to 170 in non swing states
That means Romney has to take 100 of 125 toss up electoral votes remaining

Romney has to make up some serious ground

Barry down to 243 now... Trending downward...

Pay atention...

How long before some lib tells us all that "trending" at this stage is meaningless and that it's all premature?

... 3

... 2

... 1 ....

 

[teapartysamurai]

I notice libs don't want to deal with my earlier post of how heavily and inaccurately weighted the Fox poll is with Democrats.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Wisconsin is a toss up now. O is losing serious ground in Michigan also.

No he's not.