NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio

[8537]

Page 7 of the .pdf... Here's the link...

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/ohio_poll_september.pdf

I only looked at Ohio, I didn't feel like double-checking the other 2. I'm assuming they stayed consistent, which could be a problem considering the Left's inability to do so in other areas...

What makes you think a 28/38 split is over-sampling? What do you believe the real breakdown is, and how'd you arrive at that conclusion?

Because the 2010 Congressionals were almost dead even?

Is it 2010? And how do you know the party affiliation of those who voted in 2010?

 

[Gareyt17]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

 

[8537]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

What do you think a proper sampling would be? And how'd you arrive at that figure?

 

[candycorn]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

What do you think a proper sampling would be? And how'd you arrive at that figure?

Apparently every poll over samples democrats. I didn't think there were that many democrats left.

 

[Polk]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

Ridiculous oversampling? The Florida numbers actually undersample Democrats (Democrats have a 4 point registration edge in the state, but only 2% more were interviewed in the poll). Not sure about the numbers for other states, but that one doesn't bode well for your thesis.

 

[8537]

Apparently every poll over samples democrats. I didn't think there were that many democrats left.

Maybe in order to figure out the appropriate sample we should do a random sample poll of a few thousand people in the state or something....

 

[Rambunctious]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rav9ijyyZk&feature=player_detailpage]Laugh track - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Polk]

Apparently every poll over samples democrats. I didn't think there were that many democrats left.

Maybe in order to figure out the appropriate sample we should do a random sample poll of a few thousand people in the state or something....

Or look at voter registration data (which is what I did for the Florida numbers).

 

[auditor0007]

I'm kinda wondering if those numbers are going to change after what's happening in the ME with our embassy's.

Romney has to stop the bleeding if he has any chance of winning. It's not past the point of no return yet, but it is getting close. If polling numbers move to Obama having a ten point lead or more, then it is over. Romney is desperate. The funny thing is that he keeps going off message and every time he does, it ends of costing him. His campaign team is a joke.

 

[8537]

Apparently every poll over samples democrats. I didn't think there were that many democrats left.

Maybe in order to figure out the appropriate sample we should do a random sample poll of a few thousand people in the state or something....

Or look at voter registration data (which is what I did for the Florida numbers).

Either might give you a good answer but I'd argue a random sample poll is more accurate (Assuming it's done properly). In many states you don't need to declare a party for voter registration, which at any rate is typically not current data. But voter reg is far more accurate than "they oversampled because i feeeelllllll it can't be true!"

I'm just tired of hearing over and over again that polls "over sample" dems, while no one can seem to explain what the sample pool should be.

 

[Gareyt17]

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist swing state surveys of Ohio, Florida and Virginia do not hold good news for Mitt Romney.

President Obama leads Ohio, a crucial battleground, by seven points, according to the surveys. He leads by five points in the other two. And the undecideds are few. The polls were taken from Sept. 9 through Sept. 11.

The numbers in Ohio roughly match up with internal surveys conducted by both Democrats and Republicans recently, and it is a state where Romney's campaign knows it has a battle. The auto bailout and the ads from the pro-Obama super PAC slamming Romney's business record have had an impact.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads in Florida, Virginia, Ohio - POLITICO.com

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

What do you think a proper sampling would be? And how'd you arrive at that figure?

Percentages of REGISTERED Reps vs Dems....Ohio as one example the numbes are a virtual tie....37 vs 36 percent of registered voters.

This poll is a huge oversampling of Dems.....not surprising..after all...it's NBC

 

[Gareyt17]

Maybe in order to figure out the appropriate sample we should do a random sample poll of a few thousand people in the state or something....

Or look at voter registration data (which is what I did for the Florida numbers).

Either might give you a good answer but I'd argue a random sample poll is more accurate (Assuming it's done properly). In many states you don't need to declare a party for voter registration, which at any rate is typically not current data. But voter reg is far more accurate than "they oversampled because i feeeelllllll it can't be true!"

I'm just tired of hearing over and over again that polls "over sample" dems, while no one can seem to explain what the sample pool should be.

LOTS of if's in your retort....random would in fact be a key....IF NBC conducted their polls randomly......clearly, they didn't.

 

[8537]

Or look at voter registration data (which is what I did for the Florida numbers).

Either might give you a good answer but I'd argue a random sample poll is more accurate (Assuming it's done properly). In many states you don't need to declare a party for voter registration, which at any rate is typically not current data. But voter reg is far more accurate than "they oversampled because i feeeelllllll it can't be true!"

I'm just tired of hearing over and over again that polls "over sample" dems, while no one can seem to explain what the sample pool should be.

LOTS of if's in your retort....random would in fact be a key....IF NBC conducted their polls randomly......clearly, they didn't.

There's not a single "if" in my response. What leads you to believe the sample in that poll is statistically inaccurate? It matches just about every random sample poll of its kind in recent months. Do they ALL over-sample Dems, including Fox?

Or perhaps people are easily conned by rightwing talking points and forget to actually think before claiming over-sampling?

 

[8537]

ROFLMAO......didn't bother to check their RIDICULOUS oversampling numbers did ya?

What do you think a proper sampling would be? And how'd you arrive at that figure?

Percentages of REGISTERED Reps vs Dems....Ohio as one example the numbes are a virtual tie....37 vs 36 percent of registered voters.

Registered voters? Why would you use old voter registrations and rely only on registered voters when your sample is meant to be likely voters? You don't even have to declare party affiliation to register in Ohio.

Can you show me a poll that found a statistically significant difference in sample than this one?

 

[Article 15]

Real Clear Politics has the difference this way.
Ohio + 4.2 Obama poll 9-7 through 9-12
Virginia + 0.4 Obama poll 8-13 through 9-11
Florida + 1.3 Obama poll 8-31 through 9-12
Fair bit of difference between the two polls wonder why?

I'd like to know why Bammy got a 1 point bump in Ohio today.

Ohio is the key.....whoever wins Ohio wins the election.

Wrong.

Ohio is only key to the Romney campaign.

Sucks for him, huh?

 

[Meister]

I'm kinda wondering if those numbers are going to change after what's happening in the ME with our embassy's.

Aren't the right wing nutjobs claiming that the election is only about the economy?

Ummm, if you haven't noticed....they are talking about the polls....not the election, Dick

 

[Rinata]

Is Rinata really this retarded?

Why would you say that?? All I did was post the results of a poll that came out today. There is asolutely nothing wrong with that.

Also, you should not call people, "retarded". It's not cool at all. Some people ARE retarded and it's disrespectful and unkind to them to hear the word being used in a negative way. Usually to insinuate that someone is stupid. Think next time.

 

[LoneLaugher]

rhetorical, right?

Hey,

Why don't you start a flame thread exposing Rinata as the dumbest poster on the planet?

http://www.usmessageboard.com/the-f...dumbest-poster-on-the-planet.html#post5962149

Because that would be a lie. She's on the top ten list for dumbest though.

BTW, nice deflection. Care to stick with the thread topic, dumb ass???

You mean like you did?

 

[Polk]

Maybe in order to figure out the appropriate sample we should do a random sample poll of a few thousand people in the state or something....

Or look at voter registration data (which is what I did for the Florida numbers).

Either might give you a good answer but I'd argue a random sample poll is more accurate (Assuming it's done properly). In many states you don't need to declare a party for voter registration, which at any rate is typically not current data. But voter reg is far more accurate than "they oversampled because i feeeelllllll it can't be true!"

I'm just tired of hearing over and over again that polls "over sample" dems, while no one can seem to explain what the sample pool should be.

I definitely think polling is more representative in closed primary states.

 

[RoadVirus]

Yeah...I see what you two mean. MY bad
It is always good for the president when the ME goes postal on US embassy's in an election cycle...

Sheesh, keep spinning boys.

Watch and learn. Romney's dumb statement and the republicans bashing of Romney yesterday and today helped Obama. The public blames anti-muslim christian conservatives for the film, not Obama.

Typical liberal deflection: It's everyone's fault except Obama. Obama can do no wrong. Blah blah blah.