toomuchtime_
Gold Member
- Dec 29, 2008
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Russia has violated every previous agreement it made with Ukraine, so there is no reason to expect that a new agreement will lead to peace.I have to wonder what Zelensky is thinking.
The Russians have turned to a war of attrition in the East. They are slowly but surely pushing the Ukrainians back, and may soon completely surround a major Ukrainian army. The Ukrainians will never force the Russians out of Donbas or Crimea - they are a lost cause.
Unless Zelensky has some secret weapon or huge army reserve, I doubt that NATO support will increase to any significant extent.
Zelensky has 2 hopes:
1. Russian casualties will get high enough that the political backlash in Russia will force Putin to withdraw (Doubtful)
2. Finland joining NATO will force the Russians to reenforce the Finnish border and they will no longer be able to support the war in Ukraine.
Even if #2 comes to pass, the Ukrainians will never force the Russians out of Donbas & Crimea.
Zelensky should be willing to give up Donbas & Crimea in exchange for a peace agreement.
The NATO should admit Ukraine and set up a defensive line in what remains of Ukraine.
This war can end in only two ways: either Ukraine will surrender and except another brutal Russian occupation or Russia will finally decide the cost of the war is too great and withdraw in the hope of being able to do business with the rest of the world again.
The war is unwinnable by either side on the battlefield. While it is unlikely Ukraine can drive Russia back across the border, no part of the land Russia controls will be safe from Ukrainian attacks.