Nate Silver write-up on a possible Trump 3rd party run in 2016

[Zander]

Hmmmmm. Who would be a good third-party running mate for the Trumpublican?

Hillary? When she loses the DNC nomination she will be available! (assuming she doesn't wind up in prison!)

 

[Derideo_Te]

Hmmmmm. Who would be a good third-party running mate for the Trumpublican?

They could shout down all their critics without having any facts between the both of them.

 

[B. Kidd]

Trump will not go 3rd party. He is pro-America and authentic. You've read him wrong if you think he'll go 3rd-party, which is wishful thinking by political whore worshippers.

 

[JoshuaZ]

Trump will not go 3rd party. He is pro-America and authentic. You've read him wrong if you think he'll go 3rd-party, which is wishful thinking by political whore worshippers.

How low a chance do you estimate for him running as a third party candidate conditional on him losing the nomination? 10%? Lower?

 

[Interpol]

The meme by our conservative friends is that Donald Trump would siphon off votes from Republicans, based on Ross Perot's showing in '92 and '96.

However, Bill Clinton had a much larger lead over George H.W. Bush when Perot was not in the race. The exit polls were split as well at the time.

Perot siphoned off votes from both men, while he also brought out new first-time voters that weren't going to vote for either of the establishment candidates.

I'd have to give the edge to the Democratic candidate should Trump run 3rd party, but why would the leading Republican contender go 3rd party if he's already leading among Republican voters?

 

[rightwinger]

Trump would have to be a total dick to make a third party run


Seems like a sure thing

 

[Statistikhengst]

The meme by our conservative friends is that Donald Trump would siphon off votes from Republicans, based on Ross Perot's showing in '92 and '96.

However, Bill Clinton had a much larger lead over George H.W. Bush when Perot was not in the race. The exit polls were split as well at the time.

Perot siphoned off votes from both men, while he also brought out new first-time voters that weren't going to vote for either of the establishment candidates.

I'd have to give the edge to the Democratic candidate should Trump run 3rd party, but why would the leading Republican contender go 3rd party if he's already leading among Republican voters?

The conventional thinking among establishment Republicans is that Trump in now way is going to seal the deal on the nomination, and indeed, in 6 months, anything can happen. I am not saying that. I am staying open minded about it, and since I'm not a Republican, I won't be voting in their primaries, anyway.

The reason for the speculation is Donald Trump himself, who gave thinly-veiled threats this last week to the GOP that if they don't be nice to him, he may just mount a third party run.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trump would have to be a total dick to make a third party run


Seems like a sure thing

Don's a dick.

See Don run.

Run, Don, run!

 

[Derideo_Te]

Trump will not go 3rd party. He is pro-America and authentic. You've read him wrong if you think he'll go 3rd-party, which is wishful thinking by political whore worshippers.

Why don't you explain why he won't rule out running as a 3rd party candidate then?

 

[Derideo_Te]

The meme by our conservative friends is that Donald Trump would siphon off votes from Republicans, based on Ross Perot's showing in '92 and '96.

However, Bill Clinton had a much larger lead over George H.W. Bush when Perot was not in the race. The exit polls were split as well at the time.

Perot siphoned off votes from both men, while he also brought out new first-time voters that weren't going to vote for either of the establishment candidates.

I'd have to give the edge to the Democratic candidate should Trump run 3rd party, but why would the leading Republican contender go 3rd party if he's already leading among Republican voters?

T-Rump will go 3rd party if he gets it into his head that the GOP have "dissed him" by not giving him the nomination on a silver platter.