Nate Silver now gives GOP 74% chance of capturing Senate

[Eric Cartman]

You have the Senate, it's yours to lose. If you do you have no one to blame.

I guess Democrats could make like the Republicans and just blame Obama.

 

[auditor0007]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Dems don't turn out nearly as well for the midterms as they do presidential elections.

 

[Political Junky]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

 

[candycorn]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

 

[Oldstyle]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

This election will put the lie to the "THe GOP party of old white men is dying off" meme. Basically anyone in favor of freedom, opportunity, and a strong foreign policy will vote GOP. And that's still most of the country, regardless of color.

Freedom to what? Discriminate? I'm in favor of freedom, opportunity, and smart foreign policy. I'm not in favor of how the GOP defines or attempts to accomplish those things. I'm also in favor of social tolerance, education, equitable policy, well-regulated markets and industry, science and technology, social mobility, and civil liberties. I'm not in favor of oligarchies, monopolies, political corruption, secret money, bloated defense spending, aggressive foreign policy, and lazzes-faire economic policies. Are the Democrats perfect about any of those? No way. Are they better than the GOP about those issues? Yes. And most young people agree. Look at the polls.

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

The arc of justice always leans left? Really? Not exactly the best paraphrase of a quote I've ever heard, Mountain! Part of the problem with liberals these days is that they seem to believe that the end justifies the means...no matter how badly they "bend" the arc of justice in the process.

I thought it was funny.

What means are liberals justifying through what ends? Voting? Following the Constitution? To get marriage equality and representatives who represent their interests? Both of those are constitutional and unless you can show me that dirty politics is practiced by only one side, or by far by one side, I don't see what you mean.

Let's start with some of the more "glaring" examples, Mountain!

Would you like to take a crack at explaining the theory behind the Obama Administration decision to run guns to Narco-terrorists in Mexico?

Then explain how using the IRS to handicap your political opponents would fall under the definition of "constitutional"!

Then take a few moments to explain what the Obama Justice Department was doing when it told a Federal Judge that their request for a wire tap on James Rosen was justified because he was engaged in criminal activity.

 

[Oldstyle]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Ah, Junky? Barry lost the largest number of Congressional seats in modern political history two years into his FIRST term! Just sayin'...

 

[ninja007]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

I stopped reading at Obama killed OBL>

 

[NYcarbineer]

So this will be like Reagan losing the Senate in 1986...

...when Americans decided to show they'd had enough of Reaganism?

The Democrats gained 8 seats in 1986.

lol

 

[NYcarbineer]

Interestingly, making the odds 75/25 means the oddsmaker can claim to be right no matter what happens.

The odds say that under these circumstances the Democrats will win 25% of the time. For the oddsmaker, this could be one of those times.

You'd need hundreds of these predictions to ever know if the oddsmaker was competent or not.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

I realize that, but it's not a good excuse for losing. You have the #'s, why haven't your leaders been able to keep Dims focused and energized ?
Could it be that today a sizeable percentage of Dims either no longer care, or they now have second thoughts about having Dims in control ?

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Interestingly, making the odds 75/25 means the oddsmaker can claim to be right no matter what happens.

The odds say that under these circumstances the Democrats will win 25% of the time. For the oddsmaker, this could be one of those times.

You'd need hundreds of these predictions to ever know if the oddsmaker was competent or not.

Sorry, but if you're saying one side has a 75% chance of winning, and it doesn't happen, then you are wrong. There's no good way to put a spin on it.
If Silver is wrong and the Dims keep control, his credibility takes a big hit.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

As of 12:01 am Silver has now moved the bar to...........................................


Republicans have a 76.2% chance of winning a majority.
Democrats have a 23.8% chance of keeping the majority.

 

[candycorn]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

On that, we both agree. Harry Reid is a scumbag who regularly puts Party ahead of the nation. Most of the bills he blocked would not have passed the Senate--not even close. Yet he didn't want his caucus to appear to be too off-center so he shielded them from having to vote.

I would bet that if Reid had it to do over again, he would have taken every one of those votes to de-fund the ACA and forced the GOP to vote against it in the Senate...on the record. As it turns out, the ACA is pretty popular in Apalachia (they call it something else of course).

What I was talking about, however, was going forward with Mitch and John ramming through bills we will likely return to the good old days of funding the government at 11:59 PM before it defaults, more shut downs, and the President being able to blame Congress for it.

The same thing happened in Clinton's 2nd term. Clinton is looked upon favorably, Gingrich is a joke. A few years back when this happened, Boehner was rightly blamed for the shutdown with GOP senators filibustering some of the measures as I recall. What makes you think that the 2015 stoppages will turn out any differently?

Again, short of keeping the Senate and guaranteeing the President gets his supreme court picks--which is a huge thing to lose--it will be some consolation going forward that going into the 2016 election season, you'll see a resurgence brought on by the GOP itself.

Supposed to be bad weather in much of the nation today. I hope everyone who hasn't voted does his or her civic duty and votes their heart regardless. Be careful and let's await the results.

 

[The Rabbi]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

On that, we both agree. Harry Reid is a scumbag who regularly puts Party ahead of the nation. Most of the bills he blocked would not have passed the Senate--not even close. Yet he didn't want his caucus to appear to be too off-center so he shielded them from having to vote.

I would bet that if Reid had it to do over again, he would have taken every one of those votes to de-fund the ACA and forced the GOP to vote against it in the Senate...on the record. As it turns out, the ACA is pretty popular in Apalachia (they call it something else of course).

What I was talking about, however, was going forward with Mitch and John ramming through bills we will likely return to the good old days of funding the government at 11:59 PM before it defaults, more shut downs, and the President being able to blame Congress for it.

The same thing happened in Clinton's 2nd term. Clinton is looked upon favorably, Gingrich is a joke. A few years back when this happened, Boehner was rightly blamed for the shutdown with GOP senators filibustering some of the measures as I recall. What makes you think that the 2015 stoppages will turn out any differently?

Again, short of keeping the Senate and guaranteeing the President gets his supreme court picks--which is a huge thing to lose--it will be some consolation going forward that going into the 2016 election season, you'll see a resurgence brought on by the GOP itself.

Supposed to be bad weather in much of the nation today. I hope everyone who hasn't voted does his or her civic duty and votes their heart regardless. Be careful and let's await the results.

I woud bet you are talking out of your ass again.
Obama is no Clinton. Clinton knew how to work with the opposition. Obama's idea is to call them names and impugn their motives.
THe GOP will force the Dems to own votes on the Keystone Pipeline and similar. And make Obama explain why he is vetoing bills that most people favor. I can hear it now "I vetoed this bill because my rich backers in the Sierra Club told me it would be bad for the environment".
Obama will become "President No", the main obstruction to progress in this country.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

On that, we both agree. Harry Reid is a scumbag who regularly puts Party ahead of the nation. Most of the bills he blocked would not have passed the Senate--not even close. Yet he didn't want his caucus to appear to be too off-center so he shielded them from having to vote.

I would bet that if Reid had it to do over again, he would have taken every one of those votes to de-fund the ACA and forced the GOP to vote against it in the Senate...on the record. As it turns out, the ACA is pretty popular in Apalachia (they call it something else of course).

What I was talking about, however, was going forward with Mitch and John ramming through bills we will likely return to the good old days of funding the government at 11:59 PM before it defaults, more shut downs, and the President being able to blame Congress for it.

The same thing happened in Clinton's 2nd term. Clinton is looked upon favorably, Gingrich is a joke. A few years back when this happened, Boehner was rightly blamed for the shutdown with GOP senators filibustering some of the measures as I recall. What makes you think that the 2015 stoppages will turn out any differently?

Again, short of keeping the Senate and guaranteeing the President gets his supreme court picks--which is a huge thing to lose--it will be some consolation going forward that going into the 2016 election season, you'll see a resurgence brought on by the GOP itself.

Supposed to be bad weather in much of the nation today. I hope everyone who hasn't voted does his or her civic duty and votes their heart regardless. Be careful and let's await the results.

I woud bet you are talking out of your ass again.
Obama is no Clinton. Clinton knew how to work with the opposition. Obama's idea is to call them names and impugn their motives.
THe GOP will force the Dems to own votes on the Keystone Pipeline and similar. And make Obama explain why he is vetoing bills that most people favor. I can hear it now "I vetoed this bill because my rich backers in the Sierra Club told me it would be bad for the environment".
Obama will become "President No", the main obstruction to progress in this country.

With a GOP Senate and House, the Keystone Pipeline is one of the things I want to see rammed down Obama's throat.

I'll believe it when I see it though, I still don't think the GOP will win enough seats to flip the Senate.
My forecast model just doesn't jive with Silver's.

 

[The Rabbi]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

On that, we both agree. Harry Reid is a scumbag who regularly puts Party ahead of the nation. Most of the bills he blocked would not have passed the Senate--not even close. Yet he didn't want his caucus to appear to be too off-center so he shielded them from having to vote.

I would bet that if Reid had it to do over again, he would have taken every one of those votes to de-fund the ACA and forced the GOP to vote against it in the Senate...on the record. As it turns out, the ACA is pretty popular in Apalachia (they call it something else of course).

What I was talking about, however, was going forward with Mitch and John ramming through bills we will likely return to the good old days of funding the government at 11:59 PM before it defaults, more shut downs, and the President being able to blame Congress for it.

The same thing happened in Clinton's 2nd term. Clinton is looked upon favorably, Gingrich is a joke. A few years back when this happened, Boehner was rightly blamed for the shutdown with GOP senators filibustering some of the measures as I recall. What makes you think that the 2015 stoppages will turn out any differently?

Again, short of keeping the Senate and guaranteeing the President gets his supreme court picks--which is a huge thing to lose--it will be some consolation going forward that going into the 2016 election season, you'll see a resurgence brought on by the GOP itself.

Supposed to be bad weather in much of the nation today. I hope everyone who hasn't voted does his or her civic duty and votes their heart regardless. Be careful and let's await the results.

I woud bet you are talking out of your ass again.
Obama is no Clinton. Clinton knew how to work with the opposition. Obama's idea is to call them names and impugn their motives.
THe GOP will force the Dems to own votes on the Keystone Pipeline and similar. And make Obama explain why he is vetoing bills that most people favor. I can hear it now "I vetoed this bill because my rich backers in the Sierra Club told me it would be bad for the environment".
Obama will become "President No", the main obstruction to progress in this country.

With a GOP Senate and House, the Keystone Pipeline is one of the things I want to see rammed down Obama's throat.

I'll believe it when I see it though, I still don't think the GOP will win enough seats to flip the Senate.
My forecast model just doesn't jive with Silver's.

Unless there is massive voter fraud the GOP will sweep these elections. People are pretty fed up with failed Democrat policies.

 

[Political Junky]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

I realize that, but it's not a good excuse for losing. You have the #'s, why haven't your leaders been able to keep Dims focused and energized ?
Could it be that today a sizeable percentage of Dims either no longer care, or they now have second thoughts about having Dims in control ?

You let Reagan down, how could you?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Interestingly, making the odds 75/25 means the oddsmaker can claim to be right no matter what happens.

The odds say that under these circumstances the Democrats will win 25% of the time. For the oddsmaker, this could be one of those times.

You'd need hundreds of these predictions to ever know if the oddsmaker was competent or not.

Sorry, but if you're saying one side has a 75% chance of winning, and it doesn't happen, then you are wrong. There's no good way to put a spin on it.
If Silver is wrong and the Dims keep control, his credibility takes a big hit.

I was just explaining what the odds really mean. If I cared, I'd be sorry you can't grasp it.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.