Nate Silver now gives GOP 74% chance of capturing Senate

[AceRothstein]

Conservatives have little to be happy about. The Hobby Lobby ruling for example. It limited the number of contraceptives that HL had to cover from something like 16 to something like 11.

That is what passes for a "win" for an ideology that has basically become a joke. Seriously, look at those who embody the philosophy...have you ever seen a group of people who are as sad?

Trust me Candy, if Reid is ousted as majority leader, there will be a huge celebration in conservativeland, and much happiness.

On that, we both agree. Harry Reid is a scumbag who regularly puts Party ahead of the nation. Most of the bills he blocked would not have passed the Senate--not even close. Yet he didn't want his caucus to appear to be too off-center so he shielded them from having to vote.

I would bet that if Reid had it to do over again, he would have taken every one of those votes to de-fund the ACA and forced the GOP to vote against it in the Senate...on the record. As it turns out, the ACA is pretty popular in Apalachia (they call it something else of course).

What I was talking about, however, was going forward with Mitch and John ramming through bills we will likely return to the good old days of funding the government at 11:59 PM before it defaults, more shut downs, and the President being able to blame Congress for it.

The same thing happened in Clinton's 2nd term. Clinton is looked upon favorably, Gingrich is a joke. A few years back when this happened, Boehner was rightly blamed for the shutdown with GOP senators filibustering some of the measures as I recall. What makes you think that the 2015 stoppages will turn out any differently?

Again, short of keeping the Senate and guaranteeing the President gets his supreme court picks--which is a huge thing to lose--it will be some consolation going forward that going into the 2016 election season, you'll see a resurgence brought on by the GOP itself.

Supposed to be bad weather in much of the nation today. I hope everyone who hasn't voted does his or her civic duty and votes their heart regardless. Be careful and let's await the results.

I woud bet you are talking out of your ass again.
Obama is no Clinton. Clinton knew how to work with the opposition. Obama's idea is to call them names and impugn their motives.
THe GOP will force the Dems to own votes on the Keystone Pipeline and similar. And make Obama explain why he is vetoing bills that most people favor. I can hear it now "I vetoed this bill because my rich backers in the Sierra Club told me it would be bad for the environment".
Obama will become "President No", the main obstruction to progress in this country.

With a GOP Senate and House, the Keystone Pipeline is one of the things I want to see rammed down Obama's throat.

I'll believe it when I see it though, I still don't think the GOP will win enough seats to flip the Senate.
My forecast model just doesn't jive with Silver's.

Unless there is massive voter fraud the GOP will sweep these elections. People are pretty fed up with failed Democrat policies.

I don't think that word means what you think it does.

 

[Statistikhengst]

lol....

 

[Statistikhengst]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

 

[The Rabbi]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

 

[BULLDOG]

Folks are finally tired of BHO, so they will elect GOP, but they don't trust them yet. Time will tell.

You think? This is a referendum on Obama, huh? That's odd.

Unfortunately, the GOP/TP has made it about their hate for Obama. It doesn't matter whose name is on the ballot, repubs are running against the president. There was even one school board candidate who said she should be elected because she would help eliminate healthcare. I don't know what the school board has to do with healthcare, but that's what is happening. For the last six years the right has done nothing but trash the president, so they really have nothing else to use. At least, if they win, it will be obvious if they want to run the country or just run their mouths, and in two years we can dump the crazies that slip in this time.

 

[Eric Cartman]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

Pointing out how today's results are expected both historically and because of polling isn't an excuse.

It is funny how surprised Republicans were in 2012 by the results. It make one think that conservatives are just brain washed zealots that believe what they here from conservative media and liberals seem to be guided by facts and science.

 

[BULLDOG]

"Nate Silver now gives GOP 74% chance of capturing Senate"

Again, democrats have already resigned themselves to this and are focusing on 2016.

They know they'll still control the WH, that republicans won't have the votes to repeal the ACA, Social Security, or Medicare, and that after two years of an inept, do-nothing republican Congress, the voters will sour on the GOP brand.

Moron,NOBODY wants to repeal Social Security or Medicare.

You don't remember the shutdown of 2013? Republicans demanded an end to healthcare, and massive cuts in Social Security and Medicare. When they didn't get them they shut down the government. If you keep calling people Moron, they might not be as polite to you as you would like.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

But what you guys miss here is, we've been told over and over how the GOP is dead, and because of changing demographics and the fact that more people want such programs as Obamacare, that the Dims will always be in power going forward.
I realize of course that the GOP will have regional power for quite some time, but enough regions to be in the majority in both the House and the Senate ?
Since nationwide you guys should have the #'s now to keep the GOP from controlling anything on a federal basis, what's your excuse ?
And please stop comparing past elections, demographics have changed, and if it's true everyone now wants to be a Dim, then you have no excuses.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Silver now puts it at 76.2%

 

[NYcarbineer]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

This from the guy who's already said repeatedly that only by voter fraud could the Democrats hold the Senate.

The ultimate phoney excuse.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

Electoral history, fuckface, not excuses. Now, go **** off.

 

[Siete]

a couple of independents who cacus with the dems need to win, a couple of dems need to win in what are real tight races, and the dems need to win either Colorado or Alasksa ...

and a couple of feet of snow needs to fall in Maui

 

[bendog]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

Electoral history, fuckface, not excuses. Now, go **** off.

You're right of course. And, I thought of the 1986 election.
But perhaps more importantly year 6 is typically horrible, really horrible, for the party in the WH. I've wondered why. Perhaps its because when the potus wins in his first election, his coattails may bring in some senators/reps from battleground states/districts. Perhaps, as the below link may suggest, there's some inevitable fatigue amongst the electorate. People thought Obama would bring back the good days of the late 80s/90s. He was young and black and maybe we'd become civil again. We were tired of BushII's wars. Perhaps expectations were too high.

Reagan s 1986 Election The American Spectator

But see how the article is flat out saying that 86 only ushered in more conservatism. The gop base kicked out BushI when he raised taxes to pay for a bank bailout and keep low rates. Slick couldn't govern as a progressive, but he sure wasn't a conservative. Not a new dealer, but we have the EITC. BushII completely abandoned conservatism. I don't see any enthusiasm for ending govt intervention in healthcare. I don't see any enthusiasm for cutting aid for education. I really don't see what the gop is running on besides people being tired of Obama. And that's no diss to the gop. Rather, I think the link is correct that in 1986 Reagan really did resell his brand of small govt beliefs. Obama doesn't really have much to sell.

 

[Antares]

"Nate Silver now gives GOP 74% chance of capturing Senate"

Again, democrats have already resigned themselves to this and are focusing on 2016.

They know they'll still control the WH, that republicans won't have the votes to repeal the ACA, Social Security, or Medicare, and that after two years of an inept, do-nothing republican Congress, the voters will sour on the GOP brand.

Moron,NOBODY wants to repeal Social Security or Medicare.

You don't remember the shutdown of 2013? Republicans demanded an end to healthcare, and massive cuts in Social Security and Medicare. When they didn't get them they shut down the government. If you keep calling people Moron, they might not be as polite to you as you would like.

Of course you can show where they wanted to cut Social Security and Medicare?
...and stopping the expansion is not "cutting" it.

If you think that shutdown is a benefit to you in this election I'll just laugh at you....and I could care less how civil you are or aren't

 

[DigitalDrifter]

5:00 est we should start getting some exit polls.

 

[The Rabbi]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Historically presidents in their second term have lost congress. Your idol Reagan was no exception.

Reagan and the GOP lost worse than the Democrats will lose today,

but you won't hear a single RWnut on the planet acknowledge the equivalence of the two elections.

Truman 1950
Ike 1954
Ike 1958
Johnson 1966
Nixon/Ford 1974
Reagan 1982
Reagan 1986
Bush 41 1990
Clinton 1994
Bush 43 2006

Yepp, I see a pattern, here....

That you're stupid? Yes, we've all noticed it.

The excuses are starting already. Good. The less insight the left has into the drubbing they're going to get, the better.

This from the guy who's already said repeatedly that only by voter fraud could the Democrats hold the Senate.

The ultimate phoney excuse.

For a laugh I want to see the post where you think I wrote that. Let's see if you'll double down on stupid.