Nate Silver: Hillary's Lead Keeps Shrinking

[Divine Wind]

There is no reason to worry. All presidential elections tighten up as we get closer to election day. Electoral college belongs to Ms. Clinton.

Disagreed. Although I think Hillary will probably win, to declare it as a done deal is ignorant.

"Ignorance is strength" - George Orwell, 1984

 

[jillian]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

Hillary must be shitting her pant suit over this.

I am not sure what she is doing.

You'd think they would be worried, but maybe not.

There is no reason to worry. All presidential elections tighten up as we get closer to election day. Electoral college belongs to Ms. Clinton.

and if donald keeps blowing it on basic things like falling into a bromance with a despot and mishandling security briefings, it's not like the electorate is suddenly going to fall all over him.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary's lead is now back up to 3.1.

Has the momentum finally changed ?

More to come.

 

[Divine Wind]

Hillary's lead is now back up to 3.1.

Has the momentum finally changed ?

More to come.

What is the margin of error?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

I am not sure what she is doing.

You'd think they would be worried, but maybe not.

If they're smart they'd be worried. Notice how quickly she backpedaled on the "basket of deplorables" remark. If she wasn't worried, she'd have let it stand.

It was a stupid thing to say.

I wonder if he'll hit her with it during the debates ?

 

[Divine Wind]

and if donald keeps blowing it on basic things like falling into a bromance with a despot and mishandling security briefings, it's not like the electorate is suddenly going to fall all over him.

I've often stated that I think Trump doesn't really want to be President, but he's not a quitter either. It's only in the last few months when it was clear he had a shot that I believe a lot of people were pushing him to go for the win. Still, I think Trump's conflicted. He could really win this election if he'd stop tubing himself.....which for aforementioned reasons I think he does on purpose.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary's lead is now back up to 3.1.

Has the momentum finally changed ?

More to come.

What is the margin of error?

It is a conglomeration of polls, so I suspect plus or minus 4. However, she has consistently been polling ahead so that kind of noise can't be seen in the same way.

What's more important is where they are polling the strongest.

I noticed that Real Clear dropped Hillary's electoral college votes from 229 (used to be 272) to 225. Trump hasn't gained a thing.

What this says is that Trump is going to need a miracle in some pretty key states in order to be elected.

Hillary might be helping a bit.

Nate Silver says this is still a very volatile election. I am not sure what his metrics are...but he does say there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

Overall, he still gives HIllary a substantial lead.

 

[Divine Wind]

It was a stupid thing to say.

I wonder if he'll hit her with it during the debates ?

Of course he will. Hillary has been hitting him hard with his multiple stupid statements. It's all fair game.

 

[Divine Wind]

...
Nate Silver says this is still a very volatile election. I am not sure what his metrics are...but he does say there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

Overall, he still gives HIllary a substantial lead.

I agree with Silver; it's a volatile election. We have an election with the two most detested candidates since WWII. The election will turn upon which side has the least number of stay-at-home eligible voters.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

...
Nate Silver says this is still a very volatile election. I am not sure what his metrics are...but he does say there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

Overall, he still gives HIllary a substantial lead.

I agree with Silver; it's a volatile election. We have an election with the two most detested candidates since WWII. The election will turn upon which side has the least number of stay-at-home eligible voters.

Carter was up on Reagan by 4 points in mid October.

And got creamed.

 

[Divine Wind]

Carter was up on Reagan by 4 points in mid October.

And got creamed.

Close elections are always hard to predict because of the variables involved. As mentioned before, the electorate isn't in love with either candidate. Sure, each has their small base of adoring fans, but most Americans detest both as shown in the favorability polls. If 2% less voters show up on one side and 2% more show up on the other, especially in key states, the entire election could turn into Trump win or a Hillary landslide.

Voting Turnout Statistics - Statistic Brain
Voter Registration Statistics Data
Total number of Americans eligible to vote 218,959,000
Total number of Americans registered to vote 146,311,000
Total number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 126,144,000
Percent of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 57.5 %

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Carter was up on Reagan by 4 points in mid October.

And got creamed.

Close elections are always hard to predict because of the variables involved. As mentioned before, the electorate isn't in love with either candidate. Sure, each has their small base of adoring fans, but most Americans detest both as shown in the favorability polls. If 2% less voters show up on one side and 2% more show up on the other, especially in key states, the entire election could turn into Trump win or a Hillary landslide.

Voting Turnout Statistics - Statistic Brain
Voter Registration Statistics Data
Total number of Americans eligible to vote 218,959,000
Total number of Americans registered to vote 146,311,000
Total number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 126,144,000
Percent of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 57.5 %

Either way.....we all lose.

 

[candycorn]

Hillary's lead is now back up to 3.1.

Has the momentum finally changed ?

More to come.

What is the margin of error?

It is a conglomeration of polls, so I suspect plus or minus 4. However, she has consistently been polling ahead so that kind of noise can't be seen in the same way.

What's more important is where they are polling the strongest.

I noticed that Real Clear dropped Hillary's electoral college votes from 229 (used to be 272) to 225. Trump hasn't gained a thing.

What this says is that Trump is going to need a miracle in some pretty key states in order to be elected.

Hillary might be helping a bit.

Nate Silver says this is still a very volatile election. I am not sure what his metrics are...but he does say there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

Overall, he still gives HIllary a substantial lead.

Dude, there is no way she is losing WI, VA, or PA

 

[candycorn]

Carter was up on Reagan by 4 points in mid October.

And got creamed.

Close elections are always hard to predict because of the variables involved. As mentioned before, the electorate isn't in love with either candidate. Sure, each has their small base of adoring fans, but most Americans detest both as shown in the favorability polls. If 2% less voters show up on one side and 2% more show up on the other, especially in key states, the entire election could turn into Trump win or a Hillary landslide.

Voting Turnout Statistics - Statistic Brain
Voter Registration Statistics Data
Total number of Americans eligible to vote 218,959,000
Total number of Americans registered to vote 146,311,000
Total number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 126,144,000
Percent of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 57.5 %

Either way.....we all lose.

Not me

 

[Divine Wind]

Dude, there is no way she is losing WI, VA, or PA

Worth, what, 43 electoral votes out of 538?

If you think she's giving Trump an assbeating, then you must have believed Bush when he said a 2% win was a mandate by the people.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

 

[candycorn]

Dude, there is no way she is losing WI, VA, or PA

Worth, what, 43 electoral votes out of 538?

If you think she's giving Trump an assbeating, then you must have believed Bush when he said a 2% win was a mandate by the people.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

2% win = 100% of the Presidency. Sorry but it’s true.

She will not lose any of those 3 states.

 

[Divine Wind]

2% win = 100% of the Presidency. Sorry but it’s true.

She will not lose any of those 3 states.

Correct. Heck. 0.0001% is a win. The error I'm pointing out to you is that there's a difference between being a few percentage points ahead in the polls and actually winning an election.

Do you understand the significance of this picture?

 

[candycorn]

2% win = 100% of the Presidency. Sorry but it’s true.

She will not lose any of those 3 states.

Correct. Heck. 0.0001% is a win. The error I'm pointing out to you is that there's a difference between being a few percentage points ahead in the polls and actually winning an election.

Do you understand the significance of this picture?

Certainly and anything can happen. The point is that “anything can happen” is what people say when they can come up with no concrete evidence for why it should. l

Wisconsin is dominated by suburban Chicago/Milwaukee axis. Obama’s home town. I do realize he isn’t running but I also do realize that he is going to be campaigning for her non-stop coming up.

Virginia is Tim Kaine’s home state and the home to tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands to millions) government employees. These are the jobs that the GOP says must be cut at all costs.

Pennsylvania hasn’t gone GOP since 1988. Could it in 2016? Yes. Will it? No reason for it to.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Hillary's lead is now back up to 3.1.

Has the momentum finally changed ?

More to come.

What is the margin of error?

It is a conglomeration of polls, so I suspect plus or minus 4. However, she has consistently been polling ahead so that kind of noise can't be seen in the same way.

What's more important is where they are polling the strongest.

I noticed that Real Clear dropped Hillary's electoral college votes from 229 (used to be 272) to 225. Trump hasn't gained a thing.

What this says is that Trump is going to need a miracle in some pretty key states in order to be elected.

Hillary might be helping a bit.

Nate Silver says this is still a very volatile election. I am not sure what his metrics are...but he does say there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

Overall, he still gives HIllary a substantial lead.

Dude, there is no way she is losing WI, VA, or PA

Love these claims.

Trump was never going to be the nominee. No way....ain't gonna happen.

No one would run against Hillary......

Guess what.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Well,

She may well be getting gored.

RPC has her up 3.0 points.

But the electoral distribution has shifted.

Toss-ups has moved up 20 to 175.

Chinton is now down from 229 to 209 (she peaked at 272).

Trump is still at 154.

Election with no toss ups.....

Trump is over 200 which he was not before.......