NASA Admits That Winters are Going to Get Colder…Much Colder

[Old Rocks]

Mr. Westwall has been predicting cooling since 2005. Three of the warmest years on record have occured during that period. Now that is a record of credibility that is hardly credible. LOL

 

[Old Rocks]

Snow on the East Coast, mid-60's here in Portland.

 

[jc456]

A former NASA consultant is not the consensus of NASA.

This is an unethical and lying OP.

Climatologist John Casey, a former space shuttle engineer and NASA consultant, thinks that last year’s winter, described by USA Today as “one of the snowiest, coldest, most miserable on record” is going to be a regular occurrence over the coming decades.

oh, but a rep from a country in Paris speaks for the country eh? hypocrite, hypocrite, hypocrite.

 

[jc456]

Mr. Westwall has been predicting cooling since 2005. Three of the warmest years on record have occured during that period. Now that is a record of credibility that is hardly credible. LOL

no, the most adjustments made in years, but not the warmest. not evahhhhhhhhh? you know like 58 is greater than 62 right?

 

[9aces]

Mr. Westwall has been predicting cooling since 2005. Three of the warmest years on record have occured during that period. Now that is a record of credibility that is hardly credible. LOL

You mean warmest years in the microscopically small time frame they're using...

Most definitely not the warmest years on record, not even close.

 

[jc456]

Snow on the East Coast, mid-60's here in Portland.

sounds like a typical winter eh? No climate change.

 

[flacaltenn]

"Casey also has no background in climate science, possessing only an undergraduate degree in physics and math and a master's in management. Since we pointed that out in 2010, Casey has pumped up his biography, adding that he is "one of America's most successful climate change researchers and climate prediction experts," even though he does not appear to have ever published a single peer-reviewed paper on the subject."

Wash. Examiner Duped By "Global Cooling" "Scam Artist" -- Even After We Warned Them

There's some really bad reading comprehension issues between you and Jakey and some others. Keying on Casey ignores the other 4/5ths of the article in the OP. Which DOES mention NASA and OTHER national labs concurring on this theory... From the OP article ------

David Hathaway of NASA’s Marshall Solar Physics Center explains:

“We’re at the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24. It’s the smallest sunspot cycle in 100 years and the third in a trend of diminishing sunspot cycles. So, Cycle 25 could likely be smaller than Cycle 24.”

A NASA Science News report of January 2013 details the science behind the sunspot-climate connection and it well worth reading. It should be remembered that since the report was written Solar cycle 24 has been proven to be not the smallest cycle in 50 years, but the smallest for more than 100 years. The last one with sunspot numbers this low was 1906, solar cycle 14.

“Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 [the current short term 11 year cycle] is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion.”

Not my problem if you think this is another political football.. But you're gonna misunderstand THIS debate just as bad as you probably misunderstand the whole GW debate --- if you're only interested in MediaMatters..

 

[Shrimpbox]

Climate change is the pre eminent doomsday cult. Try again mammoth

 

[Crick]

From Wikipedia's article on the Maunder Minimum

Little Ice Age[edit]

Comparison of group sunspot numbers (top), Central England Temperature (CET) observations (middle) and reconstructions and modeling of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures (NHT). The CET in red are summer averages (for June, July and August) and in blue winter averages (for December of previous year, January and February). NHT in grey is the distribution from basket of paleoclimate reconstructions (darker grey showing higher probability values) and in red are from model simulations that account for solar and volcanic variations. By way of comparison, on the same scales the anomaly for modern data (after 31 December 1999) for summer CET is +0.65oC, for winter CET is +1.34oC, and for NHT is +1.08oC. Sunspot data are as in supplementary data to [9] and Central England Temperature data are as published by the UK Met Office [10] The NHT data are described in box TS.5, Figure 1 of the IPCC AR5 report of Working Group 1.[11]​

The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures. Whether there is a causal relationship, however, is still controversial, as no convincing mechanism for the solar activity to produce cold temperatures has been proposed,[12] and the current best hypothesis for the cause of the Little Ice Age is that it was the result of volcanic action.[13][14] The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder minimum.[13]
The correlation between low sunspot activity and cold winters in England has recently been analyzed using the longest existing surface temperature record, the Central England Temperature record.[15] They emphasize that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters, and not a global effect. A potential explanation of this has been offered by observations by NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, which suggest that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought.[16] In 2011, an article was published in the Nature Geoscience journal that uses a climate model with stratospheric layers and the SORCE data to tie low solar activity to jet stream behavior and mild winters in some places (southern Europe and Canada/Greenland) and colder winters in others (northern Europe and the United States).[17] In Europe, examples of very cold winters are 1683-84, 1694–95, and the winter of 1708–09.[18]
Note that the term "Little Ice Age" applied to the Maunder minimum is something of a misnomer as it implies a period of unremitting cold (and on a global scale), which is not the case. For example, the coldest winter in the Central England Temperature record is 1683-84, but the winter just two years later (both in the middle of the Maunder minimum) was the fifth warmest in the whole 350-year CET record. Furthermore, summers during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from those seen in subsequent years. The drop in global average temperatures in paleoclimate reconstructions at the start of the Little Ice Age was between about 1560 and 1600, whereas the Maunder minimum began almost 50 years later.[original research?]

 

[flacaltenn]

From Wikipedia's article on the Maunder Minimum

Little Ice Age[edit]

​

Comparison of group sunspot numbers (top), Central England Temperature (CET) observations (middle) and reconstructions and modeling of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures (NHT). The CET in red are summer averages (for June, July and August) and in blue winter averages (for December of previous year, January and February). NHT in grey is the distribution from basket of paleoclimate reconstructions (darker grey showing higher probability values) and in red are from model simulations that account for solar and volcanic variations. By way of comparison, on the same scales the anomaly for modern data (after 31 December 1999) for summer CET is +0.65oC, for winter CET is +1.34oC, and for NHT is +1.08oC. Sunspot data are as in supplementary data to [9] and Central England Temperature data are as published by the UK Met Office [10] The NHT data are described in box TS.5, Figure 1 of the IPCC AR5 report of Working Group 1.[11]​

The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures. Whether there is a causal relationship, however, is still controversial, as no convincing mechanism for the solar activity to produce cold temperatures has been proposed,[12] and the current best hypothesis for the cause of the Little Ice Age is that it was the result of volcanic action.[13][14] The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder minimum.[13]
The correlation between low sunspot activity and cold winters in England has recently been analyzed using the longest existing surface temperature record, the Central England Temperature record.[15] They emphasize that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters, and not a global effect. A potential explanation of this has been offered by observations by NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, which suggest that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought.[16] In 2011, an article was published in the Nature Geoscience journal that uses a climate model with stratospheric layers and the SORCE data to tie low solar activity to jet stream behavior and mild winters in some places (southern Europe and Canada/Greenland) and colder winters in others (northern Europe and the United States).[17] In Europe, examples of very cold winters are 1683-84, 1694–95, and the winter of 1708–09.[18]
Note that the term "Little Ice Age" applied to the Maunder minimum is something of a misnomer as it implies a period of unremitting cold (and on a global scale), which is not the case. For example, the coldest winter in the Central England Temperature record is 1683-84, but the winter just two years later (both in the middle of the Maunder minimum) was the fifth warmest in the whole 350-year CET record. Furthermore, summers during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from those seen in subsequent years. The drop in global average temperatures in paleoclimate reconstructions at the start of the Little Ice Age was between about 1560 and 1600, whereas the Maunder minimum began almost 50 years later.[original research?]

Yeah right. In 1683, the temperature records were kept to 5th decimal point and they are impeccable.

Trust me --- no sunspot activity is a GLOBAL event. And this time --- it will be recorded..

 

[flacaltenn]

The idea that the LIA was restricted to England is Michael Mann B.Shit...

http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16200.full

Abstract
The causes of late-Holocene centennial to millennial scale climatic variability and the impact that such variability had on tropical ecosystems are still poorly understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, multiproxy record from lowland eastern Mesoamerica, studied to reconstruct climate and vegetation history during the last 2,000 years, in particular to evaluate the response of tropical vegetation to the cooling event of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Our data provide evidence that the densest tropical forest cover and the deepest lake of the last two millennia were coeval with the LIA, with two deep lake phases that follow the Spörer and Maunder minima in solar activity. The high tropical pollen accumulation rates limit LIA's winter cooling to a maximum of 2°C. Tropical vegetation expansion during the LIA is best explained by a reduction in the extent of the dry season as a consequence of increased meridional flow leading to higher winter precipitation. These results highlight the importance of seasonal responses to climatic variability, a factor that could be of relevance when evaluating the impact of recent climate change.

The Little Ice Age (LIA) (1350–1850 A.D.) has been identified as one of the most important climatic oscillations of the late Holocene and the last of several centennial to millennial scale Holocene cooling events centered over the North Atlantic (1–4). Low-latitude cooling during the LIA is evident from tropical glacier advances (5, 6), and reduced sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean (7–9). Dry LIA conditions in the Caribbean are relatively well documented and explained by a change in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (10, 11), but little is known about the impact that this climatic event had on the lowland tropical ecosystems of the Americas. Lago Verde, near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (Fig. 1), is a highly sensitive record of recent climate change (12, 13) where the response of the tropical vegetation and the lake system to the LIA cooling can be clearly traced, without any significant human impact. Multiproxy data from this lake show that in this tropical region the LIA is recorded by the deepest lake level and the densest forest cover of the last two millennia.

 

[flacaltenn]

Since I was adding to my AGW file --- I thought Mr. CrickHam would like another..



Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes


Abstract
The underlying causes of late-Holocene climate variability in the tropics are incompletely understood. Here we report a 1,500-year reconstruction of climate history and glaciation in the Venezuelan Andes using lake sediments. Four glacial advances occurred between anno Domini (A.D.) 1250 and 1810, coincident with solar-activity minima. Temperature declines of −3.2 ± 1.4°C and precipitation increases of ≈20% are required to produce the observed glacial responses. These results highlight the sensitivity of high-altitude tropical regions to relatively small changes in radiative forcing, implying even greater probable responses to future anthropogenic forcing.


It's a real shame that a couple clowns SHOUTING like Mann and Hansen -- can drown out all the science that makes their statements look stupid... Like the LIA and MWP were just European things.. Hell -- many of the hockey sticks virtually ignored the tropics.

 

[SSDD]

From Wikipedia's article on the Maunder Minimum

Little Ice Age[edit]

​

Comparison of group sunspot numbers (top), Central England Temperature (CET) observations (middle) and reconstructions and modeling of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures (NHT). The CET in red are summer averages (for June, July and August) and in blue winter averages (for December of previous year, January and February). NHT in grey is the distribution from basket of paleoclimate reconstructions (darker grey showing higher probability values) and in red are from model simulations that account for solar and volcanic variations. By way of comparison, on the same scales the anomaly for modern data (after 31 December 1999) for summer CET is +0.65oC, for winter CET is +1.34oC, and for NHT is +1.08oC. Sunspot data are as in supplementary data to [9] and Central England Temperature data are as published by the UK Met Office [10] The NHT data are described in box TS.5, Figure 1 of the IPCC AR5 report of Working Group 1.[11]​

The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures. Whether there is a causal relationship, however, is still controversial, as no convincing mechanism for the solar activity to produce cold temperatures has been proposed,[12] and the current best hypothesis for the cause of the Little Ice Age is that it was the result of volcanic action.[13][14] The onset of the Little Ice Age also occurred well before the beginning of the Maunder minimum.[13]
The correlation between low sunspot activity and cold winters in England has recently been analyzed using the longest existing surface temperature record, the Central England Temperature record.[15] They emphasize that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters, and not a global effect. A potential explanation of this has been offered by observations by NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, which suggest that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought.[16] In 2011, an article was published in the Nature Geoscience journal that uses a climate model with stratospheric layers and the SORCE data to tie low solar activity to jet stream behavior and mild winters in some places (southern Europe and Canada/Greenland) and colder winters in others (northern Europe and the United States).[17] In Europe, examples of very cold winters are 1683-84, 1694–95, and the winter of 1708–09.[18]
Note that the term "Little Ice Age" applied to the Maunder minimum is something of a misnomer as it implies a period of unremitting cold (and on a global scale), which is not the case. For example, the coldest winter in the Central England Temperature record is 1683-84, but the winter just two years later (both in the middle of the Maunder minimum) was the fifth warmest in the whole 350-year CET record. Furthermore, summers during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from those seen in subsequent years. The drop in global average temperatures in paleoclimate reconstructions at the start of the Little Ice Age was between about 1560 and 1600, whereas the Maunder minimum began almost 50 years later.[original research?]

Yeah right. In 1683, the temperature records were kept to 5th decimal point and they are impeccable.

Trust me --- no sunspot activity is a GLOBAL event. And this time --- it will be recorded..

Of course by the time NASA, NOAA, CRU and GISS get through with the data, those icicles hanging off your man dangling bits will be proof of warming.

 

[Maggdy]

Mr. Westwall has been predicting cooling since 2005. Three of the warmest years on record have occured during that period. Now that is a record of credibility that is hardly credible. LOL

You mean warmest years in the microscopically small time frame they're using...

Most definitely not the warmest years on record, not even close.

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

 

[flacaltenn]

Mr. Westwall has been predicting cooling since 2005. Three of the warmest years on record have occured during that period. Now that is a record of credibility that is hardly credible. LOL

You mean warmest years in the microscopically small time frame they're using...

Most definitely not the warmest years on record, not even close.

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

This COULD BE true to some small extent. Because that's the recent climate history of our planet. And our "temperature optimum" is already shorter than some others that we've measured. But our current "best" explanation for the series of a glacial periods is based on Milankovich cycles as the triggers. And the TIMING of those cycles is not quite here. (OR -- we seriously misunderstand the cause and/or the timing). The ice core records are far from perfect..

On the other hand -- the main tenet of Global Warming theory is that a 2 degC rise in temperature is sufficient to PERMANENTLY destroy the Earth's climate. Which begs the question of why did the PREVIOUS 4 Glacial Ages stop -- IF -- the climate system has all these positive feedbacks we're being sold in GW theory? Why didn't the MASSIVE melting of the tundras release ALL those frozen calthrates back then and just short circuit human existence? Certainly a 12 or 14degC rise would have been unstoppable given the current theory.

The relatively tiny increase in CO2 even if man-caused MIGHT delay the next glacial.. But no one is in a position to say how long the reprieve might be..

 

[saveliberty]

So, CO2 emissions cause a reduction in sun spots! Who knew?

 

[Billy_Bob]

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

This is utter bull shit!

Please explain to me why we have glaciated, warmed and glaciated again thousands of times while the CO2 levels were well above 7,000ppm?

The empirical evidence and commonsense lays that utter bull shit waste..

Why cant you guys use your dam heads and some critical thinking skills?

 

[flacaltenn]

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

This is utter bull shit!

Please explain to me why we have glaciated, warmed and glaciated again thousands of times while the CO2 levels were well above 7,000ppm?

The empirical evidence and commonsense lays that utter bull shit waste..

"1000s of times" ??? Isn't that a bit overstated? And CO2 HAS been above 7000ppm, but not in the past series of Ice Ages and thaws..

 

[Billy_Bob]

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

This is utter bull shit!

Please explain to me why we have glaciated, warmed and glaciated again thousands of times while the CO2 levels were well above 7,000ppm?

The empirical evidence and commonsense lays that utter bull shit waste..

"1000s of times" ??? Isn't that a bit overstated? And CO2 HAS been above 7000ppm, but not in the past series of Ice Ages and thaws..

Thousands of times might be a sever understatement.. when we consider the earth is 4.6 billion years old and our temperature has remained within the 12 deg C boundary for almost all of that time..

Its my understanding that we have been cyclical for all of that time.. Even the dinosaurs migrated ..

 

[flacaltenn]

It is possible that the geological ice age is to modeling for the mini ice age?

Quotes:
"The bottom line is that we are basically skipping a whole glacial cycle, which is unprecedented.”

“However, our study also shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years,” which would mean the next one probably won’t start for 100,000 years, he said.

"....The researchers in Germany were able to use computer models to replicate the last eight glacial cycles and provide predictions on when the next might occur. ..."
“...This study further confirms what we’ve suspected for some time, that the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere will alter the climate of the planet for tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and has canceled the next ice age,” said Andrew Watson, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Exeter in southwest England, who wasn’t involved in the research. ..."
Source: The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

This is utter bull shit!

Please explain to me why we have glaciated, warmed and glaciated again thousands of times while the CO2 levels were well above 7,000ppm?

The empirical evidence and commonsense lays that utter bull shit waste..

"1000s of times" ??? Isn't that a bit overstated? And CO2 HAS been above 7000ppm, but not in the past series of Ice Ages and thaws..

View attachment 62908

Thousands of times might be a sever understatement.. when we consider the earth is 4.6 billion years old and our temperature has remained within the 12 deg C boundary for almost all of that time..

Its my understanding that we have been cyclical for all of that time.. Even the dinosaurs migrated ..

Now that repetitive pattern is fairly recent.. Maybe the data is more available for the last million years than before that time. That repetitive pattern doesn't appear in MANY of previous historical epochs. Especially the dino times.

In systems analysis -- that would be called "hunting behaviour" of an underdamped system. You could put lots of "shine" on the implications of that. MAYBE -- after a tumultuous beginning, the climate has settled into "steady state" and is "hunting" for a stable point.

But more likely -- we're MISSING a lot of the detail of violent swings in the span a million years for all the REALLY old climate data points.