More Storms Coming

[GotZoom]

DENVER — Amid the unfolding disaster left by Hurricane Katrina, Colorado State University researchers said Friday they expect more storms than average over the next two months.

"Even though we've had the most destructive storm in history, it doesn't mean we're done for the year," hurricane forecaster William Gray said.

"We expect that by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near-recordce in October. The long-term average is 27 percent in September and 6 percent in October.

The CSU team predicted five named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes for September, traditionally the most active month for hurricanes. They predicted three named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane in October.

The forecast was in line with the range predicted by the National Hurricane Center for the whole season. The center's forecast suggests five to eight named storms, five to seven hurricanes, and two to four major hurricanes will occur through November.

"He's the dean of this particular science," hurricane center spokesman Frank Lepore said of Gray.

The Atlantic hurricane season already has seen 13 named storms, including Maria, which formed Friday. Four storms became hurricanes, of which three were intense, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The average per season from 1950 to 2000 is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

"We've already had 110 percent of the average season through August, and you're only 40 percent of the way through the season," Gray said.

Before last year, three of 32 major hurricanes had made landfall since 1995. Since August 2004, five major hurricanes have hit land, including Katrina.

"We'll probably never see a storm have the influence that this one has. It's horrendous," Gray said.

The CSU team's August forecast called for five named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The National Weather Service recorded four named storms, with two hurricanes, including one major hurricane, spokesman Greg Romano said.

For the full season, Gray and Klotzbach's team expected 20 named storms, with 10 predicted to become hurricanes and six becoming intense hurricanes.

 

[insein]

oh goodie.

 

[-Cp]

LINK:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/02/AR2005090201155.html

 

[waltky]

Extreme Storms Will Be the 'New Normal'...

UN Chief: Scientists Say Extreme Storms Will Be 'New Normal'
October 04, 2017 — Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is heading to the hurricane-battered Caribbean, where he said Wednesday that scientists predict the extreme storms during this year's Atlantic hurricane season "will be the new normal of a warming world."

The U.N. chief told reporters that Hurricane Irma, which devastated Barbuda, was a Category 5 storm for three consecutive days — "the longest on satellite record" — and its winds that reached 300 kilometers per hour for 37 hours were "the longest on record at that intensity." Hurricanes Harvey and Irma marked the first time two Category 4 storms made landfall on the United States mainland in the same year, Guterres said, and Hurricane Maria, a Category 5 storm, followed up by decimating Dominica and devastating Puerto Rico. The secretary-general said "scientists are learning more and more about the links between climate change and extreme weather."

A warmer climate "turbocharges the intensity of hurricanes," which pick up energy as they move across the ocean, he said. "The melting of glaciers, and the thermal expansion of the seas, means bigger storm surges" and with more people living along coastlines "the damage is, and will be that much greater." Guterres said the world has "the tools, the technologies and the wealth to address climate chan ge, but we must show more determination in moving towards a green, clean, sustainable energy future" — and in stepping up implementation of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The secretary-general said he will travel to Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica on Saturday to survey the damage and assess what more the United Nations can do.

This photo made available by the U.S. Coast Guard, shows homes near a washed out road in Utuado, Puerto Rico​

Stephen O'Malley, the U.N. resident coordinator for Barbados and the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, said Tuesday that the United Nations, World Bank and Antigua government have conducted a post-disaster needs assessment for Barbuda, whose 1,800 residents were evacuated to Antigua before Hurricane Irma damaged 95 percent of its structures on September 14.

He said a similar assessment will be done in Dominca, which was ravaged on September 18 by Hurricane Maria, probably in about three weeks. Guterres said the response to the $113.9 million U.N. appeal to cover humanitarian needs in the Caribbean for the immediate period ahead has been poor and he urged donors "to respond more generously in the weeks to come." He also stressed that "innovative financing mechanisms will be crucial" to enable these small islands to recover, rebuild and "strengthen resilience."

UN Chief: Scientists Say Extreme Storms Will Be 'New Normal'