One way in which Obama has transformed America: Increased gun ownership and lower murder rates.
We're safer with More Guns!
Since President Obama’s election the number of concealed handgun permits has soared, growing from 4.6 million in 2007 to over 12.8 million this year. Among the findings in our report:
-- The number of concealed handgun permits is increasing at an ever- increasing rate. Over the past year, 1.7 million additional new permits have been issued – a 15.4% increase in just one single year. This is the largest ever single-year increase in the number of concealed handgun permits.
-- 5.2% of the total adult population has a permit.
-- Five states now have more than 10% of their adult population with concealed handgun permits.
-- In ten states, a permit is no longer required to carry in all or virtually all of the state. This is a major reason why legal carrying handguns is growing so much faster than the number of permits.
-- Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%.
-- Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.
-- Between 2007 and 2014, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.2 (preliminary estimates) per 100,000. This represents a 25% drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 156%. Overall violent crime also fell by 25 percent over that period of time.
-- States with the largest increase in permits have seen the largest relative drops in murder rates.
-- Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.
Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott John E Whitley Rebekah C. Riley SSRN
Comparing the decrease of 25% in the murder rate with the rapid increase in conceal-carry permits over the last 8 years means what? Is the reader to be lead to the conclusion that the increase in these permits have actually reduced the murder rate by that much over 8 years, and which the "paper" states was the case? Is there correlation between these two data sets? OK, lets entertain the position that that type of correlation is valid statistically and stands on its own.
Well, lets make another comparison involving guns and murder rates using the very same FBI data tables this group used, but from a different time and one other data set for comparison with the murder rate. First, here are the links for the FBI data:
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl01.xls
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/1tabledatadecoverviewpdf/table_1_crime_in_the_united_states_by_volume_and_rate_per_100000_inhabitants_1994-2013.xls
Following the very same "logic" used in the "paper", there
must be a correlation between gun control laws and the murder rate. In 1993 the Gun Control Act of 1968 was amended by the "Brady Act". In 1993, the FBI documented murder rate per 100k was 9.5%, which fell to 5.6% 8 years later in 2001; the same 8 year span set out in the "paper". Drawing the same conclusion as in the "paper", the Brady Act reduced the murder rate by 41%.
Therefore, both conceal-carry and gun control regulations are effective in reducing the murder rate, BUT gun control legislation is
more effective than conceal-carry permitting!!!!
Are either of the first or second correlation conclusions statistically true? Of course not!
Is the final conclusion drawn from those correlations statistically true? Again, NO! The product is false. There is no statistical correlation!!!!
An attempt to correlate two data sets, in and of itself alone by simple comparison of those two data sets over time, does NOT convey nor imply causation. In statistics, that is expressed in Latin as "cum hoc ergo propter hoc". With regards to the "paper" one variable when compared with a second variable does not imply one supports the other in the conclusion of a causation.
The "PAPER" is a product of the "Crime Prevention Research Center", a gun lobby organization headed by John Lott, a long time NRA shill!