More Economic Good News: Jobless claims lowest in 18 months!

[Toro]

Next week, its nonfarm payrolls. Expectations are for NFPs to be flat, i.e. job losses to stop. I saw a huge trade go across the tape this week with someone betting that the number is going to be significantly positive.

 

[Sinatra]

Next week, its nonfarm payrolls. Expectations are for NFPs to be flat, i.e. job losses to stop. I saw a huge trade go across the tape this week with someone betting that the number is going to be significantly positive.

I truly hope you are right.

Too many people suffering out there.

That being said, I fear the current administration and Congressional leadership have taken teh worst aspects of the Bush Big Government years and simply doubled down on them. The recovery may prove far more shallow than we are accustomed to. I hope not, but my own people are telling me to prepare for a much longer stretch of anemic flatlining...

 

[Zander]

Zander

Please keep up, I know you started your New Years drinking early...but this stuff is not that hard. The number of claims has decreased throughout the year. Look at ALL the numbers.

GOOD news Zander

Now you can go back to your drinking

How can you post December's numbers when Dec isn't over yet?
Do you think the days closed for Xmas and New Years might have skewed the numbers just a teensy bit?

I think this is the last day of December.

Just a guess on my part.

And you'd be wrong, as usual. The monthly numbers for December are not out yet. They come out Jan 8th.

 

[Toro]

The recovery WILL be shallow. Why? Because when you have a credit-induced collapse of the nation's balance sheet, the recovery is always shallow.

In a typical cycle, the economy experiences consumer inflation as capacity utilization is high and bottlenecks occur. The economy overheats, so the Fed tightens interest rates. The economy slows but there is too much inventory, so companies lay off workers. As the inventory gets worked off and as interest rates fall, credit becomes cheap and companies start spending again and the economy begins to grow.

This recession is different from all the other recessions since WWII, with the exception of the last recession, which was a milder version of this one. In this recession, we had too much credit expansion to feed a housing bubble, which was one of the biggest bubbles of all time. As the housing bubble collapsed, there was too much leverage in the system, which is being wiped out and credit is contracting. Because credit is contracting, companies are not expanding, and will not do so until the credit collapse stops and demand starts to rise again. But that won't happen until the balance sheet of the nation gets repaired. That takes a long time. Unemployment will remain high for a long time.

This recession has little to do with Bush or Obama or Democrats or Republicans. This type of recession has happened over and over and over again across many, many different countries throughout the centuries. There are characteristics that are similar to these types of recessions - financial liberalization, credit explosion, housing or stock bubbles, everyone thinking "its different this time" - but it does not matter which party in which country is in power.

People who make this a political issue - on both sides of the aisle - do not understand the nature of what is happening.

 

[oreo]

I wish this was a sign of recovery, but it isn't.

Analysts cautioned that the weekly data could be artificially low due to seasonal factors, such as the Christmas holiday and recent snowstorms.

It is a seasonal fluctuation.

I don't see any light at the end of this tunnel--seasonal work--for the holidays--temporary jobs in stores, restaurants, etc. And of course a lot of these guys were hired.

We are still loosing jobs--there are no gains--I don't know anyone can look at this & say it's great news-- Currently unemployment in California is over 12%, Michigan is over 14% etc. etc. etc.

Let's face it, until millions upon millions of construction workers go back to work in a full-time status there will be no recovery. The housing bubble brought this economy down--& it's the only thing that brings us out. Right now, there is still too much inventory--(vacant & foreclosed homes on the market) to put them back to work.

 

[Chris]

The Republicans here are doing everything they can to say the economy is not recovering.

And yet it is.

I have come to the conclusion that they will tell any lie to make Obama look bad.

 

[oreo]

The Republicans here are doing everything they can to say the economy is not recovering.

And yet it is.

I have come to the conclusion that they will tell any lie to make Obama look bad.

First of all I am not a republican. And until the jobless claims completely STOP & we see real gains in new--full time jobs in this country & our unemployment rate actually drops--then there will be something to cheer about. We haven't seen that yet.

Until Americans go back to work in real full time jobs--not seasonal temporary jobs--or government temporary jobs--that have been created by the taxpayer dollars there will be no long term private sector growth in this country.

Trying to spin bad news into good news doesn't work with me-- I have been around way to long & in my own business & have survived several recessions including the Carter era. This is the worst I have ever seen.

And this is how bad you & Rightwinger's spin is:

WASHINGTON - A record 20 million-plus Americans collected unemployment benefits at some point in 2009, a year that ended with the jobless rate at 10 percent.

As the pace of layoffs slows, the number of new applicants visiting unemployment offices has been on the decline in recent months. But limited hiring means the ranks of the long-term unemployed continues to grow, with more than 5.8 million people out of work for more than six months.

The number of new claims for jobless benefits dropped last week to 432,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, down sharply from its late March peak of 674,000. The decline signals that the economy could begin adding a small number of jobs in January, several economists said. Still, hiring is unlikely to be strong enough to quickly bring down the unemployment rate, which fell from 10.2 percent in October to 10 percent in November. December's rate will be announced Jan. 8.

Companies will remain cautious about adding staff until they are confident the economic recovery is sustainable — something they remain unsure about as consumers and businesses keep a lid on spending, and as the government begins to wind down various stimulus programs.

The Federal Reserve and private economists expect joblessness to stay above 9 percent through the end of 2010.

The slow pace of hiring will force Congress and the Obama administration in 2010 to spend as much as $70 billion to extend jobless aid for the long-term unemployed, or else let benefits — which were extended several times in 2009 — expire for millions of people.

"Fewer people are getting fired, but nobody is finding a job," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak.

Thursday's report illustrates the two different trends: first-time jobless claims are falling as layoffs ease, but the total number of people collecting unemployment checks is still rising.

More than 10.1 million people collected jobless benefits in the week of Dec. 12, the latest data available. That's up by about 200,000 compared with the previous week.

That figure includes 5.3 million people receiving the 26 weeks of aid customarily provided by the states, and 4.8 million people that have shifted to the extended benefit programs enacted by Congress over the past two years and paid for by the federal government. Unemployment insurance averages about $300 per week.

But the extensions are set to expire in February. That could mean as many as 1 million people would run out of unemployment aid in March, according to the National Employment Law Project, a nonprofit group.

The total number of people who at one point collected benefits in 2009 — roughly 20.7 million — is also a record. A larger proportion of the unemployed received jobless benefits in the last steep recession in 1981-82, but the work force has grown by about one-third since then.

Fifteen million Americans are out of work, an increase of 3.8 million since the start of 2009. There are six unemployed people, on average, for each available job. And the so-called underemployment rate, counting part-time workers who want full-time jobs and laid-off workers who have given up their job hunt, stands at 17.2 percent.

Budget-strapped state governments will struggle with higher spending on unemployment insurance in 2010. States are required to set aside money in a trust fund to pay jobless benefits, but 25 have already run through their funds and have borrowed $26 billion from the federal government.

The Labor Department has projected that 40 states may need to borrow as much as $90 billion by 2012.

Thirty-five states have already increased the unemployment insurance taxes they levy on employers for 2010, according to the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. Some are also cutting benefits as they try to reduce the size of budget shortfalls that are expected to reach $180 billion in the coming fiscal year.

The drain on federal and state finances could force Congress to consider raising the federal unemployment insurance tax, which is currently 0.8 percent on the first $7,000 of wages, or making other changes.

http://rss.msnbc.msn.com/id/34641146/

Criss & Rightwinger--maybe it would be a good idea for the both of you to take some reading comprehension classes before you post again.

 

[Chris]

oreo, thanks for proving my point.

The stats show that the economy has been growing for the last five months.

By focusing on a lagging indicator like unemployment, you are able to put a negative spin on it.

 

[oreo]

oreo, thanks for proving my point.

The stats show that the economy has been growing for the last five months.

By focusing on a lagging indicator like unemployment, you are able to put a negative spin on it.

Where do you get unemployment is a "lagging" indicator--- People are hired because of a demand--that is typically met immediately when an employer needs an employee. When an employer has a need to hire they do so immediately--there is nothing lagging to it. What is lacking is demand for goods & services--that stimulates the employer into hiring new employees to meet that demand.

We see in this report that there were 200K more filings for unemployment than the previous week--indicating that those who obtained part-time temporary seasonal jobs--were laid off again.

The report also states that 17.2% are under employed & are still looking for full time jobs. That's a huge number.

Again--you guys can spin & spin & spin--but this report states that economists & the federal reserve see unemployment staying above 9% for the entire 2010 year. That's not good news.

You & Rightwinger have consistently done this with economic news. You pull one number out of an entire economic report that you like--then--make an entire thread about it--without devulging critical information in the rest of the article. You're basically trying to read tea leaves into what the future holds--simply based upon one single number out of a full report--that you like. I really don't believe that either of you have basic economic knowledge of what really stimulates this economy--in as much as it's relation to real job creation.

 

[Toro]

Where do you get unemployment is a "lagging" indicator--- People are hired because of a demand--that is typically met immediately when an employer needs an employee. When an employer has a need to hire they do so immediately--there is nothing lagging to it. What is lacking is demand for goods & services--that stimulates the employer into hiring new employees to meet that demand.

Every economist knows unemployment is a lagging indicator. And it is because employers do NOT hire immediately when they see initial demand. When initial demand picks up, they work their current employees more. Only when they feel that the increase in demand is sustainable do they start hiring, and that LAGS the cyclical upturn.

This is a graph of the unemployment rate. The gray bars are recessions. Unemployment has always peaked AFTER the recession has ended. There is no reason to think that this time will be any different.

 

[PatekPhilippe]

Jobless claims fall to lowest level since ’08 - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, a sign the job market is healing as the economy slowly recovers.
New jobless claims have dropped steadily since September, raising hopes that the economy may soon begin creating jobs and the unemployment rate could decline. That, in turn, would give households more money to spend and add fuel to the broader economic rebound that began earlier this year.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000, the lowest since July 2008. That's much better than the rise to 460,000 that Wall Street economists expected.


The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell for the 17th straight week to 460,250, the lowest since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. The crisis led to widespread mass layoffs, which sent jobless claims to as high as 674,000 last spring.

yeah....400,000 people losing their jobs in a month is great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...on average.

 

[rightwinger]

Jobless claims fall to lowest level since ’08 - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, a sign the job market is healing as the economy slowly recovers.
New jobless claims have dropped steadily since September, raising hopes that the economy may soon begin creating jobs and the unemployment rate could decline. That, in turn, would give households more money to spend and add fuel to the broader economic rebound that began earlier this year.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000, the lowest since July 2008. That's much better than the rise to 460,000 that Wall Street economists expected.


The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell for the 17th straight week to 460,250, the lowest since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. The crisis led to widespread mass layoffs, which sent jobless claims to as high as 674,000 last spring.

yeah....400,000 people losing their jobs in a month is great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...on average.

400,000 people losing their jobs a month is not great news. But when the number drops to 11,000 like last month it shows a promising trend. All major economic indicators are showing marked improvement. Jobs, too are showing a reversal of previous trends.

GOOD NEWS.........Hard to take when you root for your country to fail

 

[Chris]

Jobless claims fall to lowest level since ’08 - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, a sign the job market is healing as the economy slowly recovers.
New jobless claims have dropped steadily since September, raising hopes that the economy may soon begin creating jobs and the unemployment rate could decline. That, in turn, would give households more money to spend and add fuel to the broader economic rebound that began earlier this year.

The Labor Department said Thursday that new claims for unemployment insurance fell by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 432,000, the lowest since July 2008. That's much better than the rise to 460,000 that Wall Street economists expected.


The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, fell for the 17th straight week to 460,250, the lowest since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. The crisis led to widespread mass layoffs, which sent jobless claims to as high as 674,000 last spring.

yeah....400,000 people losing their jobs in a month is great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...on average.

400,000 people losing their jobs a month is not great news. But when the number drops to 11,000 like last month it shows a promising trend. All major economic indicators are showing marked improvement. Jobs, too are showing a reversal of previous trends.

GOOD NEWS.........Hard to take when you root for your country to fail

The Republicans want the economy to fail, and America to suffer a terrorist attack.

They suckle at the teet of fear.

 

[PatekPhilippe]

yeah....400,000 people losing their jobs in a month is great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...on average.

400,000 people losing their jobs a month is not great news. But when the number drops to 11,000 like last month it shows a promising trend. All major economic indicators are showing marked improvement. Jobs, too are showing a reversal of previous trends.

GOOD NEWS.........Hard to take when you root for your country to fail

The Republicans want the economy to fail, and America to suffer a terrorist attack.

They suckle at the teet of fear.

Better to suckle the teet of fear than to suck the dick of stupidity like you do....

and a hint for the terminally stupid like you....the events you described have already happened since January 21, 2009

 

[Chris]

400,000 people losing their jobs a month is not great news. But when the number drops to 11,000 like last month it shows a promising trend. All major economic indicators are showing marked improvement. Jobs, too are showing a reversal of previous trends.

GOOD NEWS.........Hard to take when you root for your country to fail

The Republicans want the economy to fail, and America to suffer a terrorist attack.

They suckle at the teet of fear.

Better to suckle the teet of fear than to suck the dick of stupidity like you do....

and a hint for the terminally stupid like you....the events you described have already happened since January 21, 2009

Thanks for proving my point.

And the usual personal insult besides.

That's 10 out of 10 for you.

 

[PatekPhilippe]

Thank you...I would ask for posrep...but you are in fact....worthless...repwise....which says a lot about your lack of character and coherent thought.

 

[Chris]

Thank you...I would ask for posrep...but you are in fact....worthless...repwise....which says a lot about your lack of character and coherent thought.

You are not going to claim there were no terrorist attacks on the U.S. after 9/11 any more are you?

 

[PatekPhilippe]

Thank you...I would ask for posrep...but you are in fact....worthless...repwise....which says a lot about your lack of character and coherent thought.

You are not going to claim there were no terrorist attacks on the U.S. after 9/11 any more are you?

There weren't...and what does this have to do with the failing economy?

 

[Brubricker]

Better to suckle the teet of fear than to suck the dick of stupidity like you do....

Invite all of your family over to your monitor right now and show them this line you've proudly posted. They'll be very impressed.

This is how internet anonymity turns people into total douchebags.

 

[PatekPhilippe]

Better to suckle the teet of fear than to suck the dick of stupidity like you do....

Invite all of your family over to your monitor right now and show them this line you've proudly posted. They'll be very impressed.

This is how internet anonymity turns people into total douchebags.

Move on mister morals...if you don't like the thread then get the fuck out.