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http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ODE2YTA0NmMyNjE5MGNhMDFkOGY4MTNlMGVjZDkwN2U=
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June 08, 2006, 6:01 a.m.
Whats Going On?
Bad guys in Mogadishu.
By An NRO Symposium
Editors Note: Seemingly lost in the headlines this week has been the news that Islamic forces have reportedly taken over Mogadishu. National Review Online gathered a group of experts to explain whats happening and what can be done about it.
Peter Brookes
No matter which way you look at it, its just about impossible to find any good news in what happened in Somalia this week, after Islamic forces took the capital, Mogadishu. Maybe I should say the historical capital since Somalia hasnt had a functioning central government in 15 years, but I digress...
In either case, its hard to be optimistic, at least in the short-term. Sure, maybe the triumphant Islamic Courts Union doesnt have ties to al Qaeda. O.K., thats good, but what does that mean? We get the Somali-version of the Taliban instead? Great, just great.
The way it looks now, its al Qaeda (e.g., Al Ittihad al Islami), the Taliban (e.g., Islamic Courts Union) and a bunch of ruthless warlordsall in one poor, lawless state that might, just might, become the next Afghanistan.
Heck, if I were Osama, Id pull up tent stakes right now and head for safe haven in the Horn of Africa. Its better than living on the Pakistani frontier, or taking on American GIs in Iraq or Afghanistan.
And thats exactly the point: Somalia might just become the location of the next Taliban-al Qaeda partnership. Somethingthat even while we figure out what to do nextwe know is unacceptable.
Peter Brookes is senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He is author of A Devils Triangle: Terrorism, WMD and Rogue States.
Thomas Joscelyn
Although few realized it at the time, the U.S. retreat from Somalia in 1994 was a seminal event in the evolution of al Qaeda. It proved to them that the paper tiger, America, could be beaten. This is not mere conjecture; al Qaedas own internal discourses trumpet this point. For example, U.S. forces in Afghanistan seized a collection of al Qaedas letters written to members of its African corps shortly after President Clinton ordered the withdrawal of American forces. The U.S. retreat from Somalia was seen as a Muslim victory, which had profound implications ideologically, politically, and psychologically that will require lengthy studies. It proved the spurious nature of American power and that it has not recovered from the Vietnam complex. Furthermore, Americans feared getting bogged down in a real war that would reveal its psychological collapse at the level of personnel and leadership.
While Americas and the worlds leaders did little to combat the rising tide of Islamic extremism in Somalia from 1994 hence, the extremists themselves have patiently plotted a rise to power. Taking advantage of the decade of chaos that followed the U.S. retreat, as well as the U.N.s retreat in 1995, the Islamic courts now promise the Somali people peace and stability under the banner of an extreme Taliban-like form of Islam.
The groups leader, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, has even launched a public-relations offensive, claiming his desire to represent the Somali people and disavowing any ties to al Qaeda. But make no mistake about it: the Islamic courts victory in Mogadishu is a win for al Qaeda. The Islamic courts have provided aid and shelter to al Qaeda for years. There are reports that several of the perpetrators of the 1998 embassy bombings are currently protected in Mogadishu. The cell that harbors those terrorists is even thought to have executed an attack against an Israeli-owned hotel in Kenya in 2002, while simultaneously failing to shoot down an Israeli airliner.
Al Qaeda and its allies claimed victory in Somalia in 1994. There was no robust American response. Al Qaedas allies are once again claiming victory in Mogadishu today. What is America going to do about it?
Thomas Joscelyn is an economist who works on antitrust and security issues....