Military exercises suggest China is getting ‘ready to launch a war against Taiwan,’ Taiwanese foreign minister tells CNN

[shockedcanadian]

Is it a legit fear or more sabre rattling? China won't go to war until they are absolutely certain of a sharp victory. This means being as dominant economically and militarily as required for a rapid attack. Military exercises suggest China is getting ‘ready to launch a war against Taiwan,’ Taiwanese foreign minister tells CNN.
“Look at the military exercises, and also their rhetoric, they seem to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan,” Wu said.

“The Taiwanese government looks at the Chinese military threat as something that cannot be accepted and we condemn it.”

Asked if Taiwan has any sense of the timing of potential Chinese military action, given US intelligence assessments that Xi has instructed his military to be prepared by 2027, Wu expressed confidence in Taiwanese preparations.

“Chinese leaders will think twice before they decide to use force against Taiwan. And no matter whether it is 2025 or 2027 or even beyond, Taiwan simply needs to get ready,” he said.

 

[JohnDB]

China WAS going to invade Taiwan.
The biggest reason is China is broke. They have a banking bond fiasco that makes the worst US banking scandals of such morals they can be Sunday School Superintendents for their piety.

So China nationalized the Private banks in Hong Kong....for the cash. But it isn't enough. Especially since every nation in the world has found other manufacturers in other countries to produce their goods. Home Depot being one of the last to leave. So now China is seeing massive unemployment.

At the base of this is the semiconductor market. Taiwan has more computer chip manufacturing than anyone else. Especially by brands that you readily know. (Micron, Intel, AMD and TSC) these "gizmos" that produce the chips are not cheap and on backorder. They require two years to manufacture. Then chemicals to operate.

There is an import ban to China that is impenetrable of these machines because there is only one company that makes them. There is a second but their "machines" are for older technology.

And China wants to control the entire market for computer chips. Especially since they have been so moral and above board before with every market they have dominated in the past.

So....EVERYONE who has a plant, equipment, employees, and/or stock in a company operating in Taiwan is going to whine the second China starts.

Plus Taiwan has enough soldiers and munitions to hold off China long enough for the whole world to kick their but. And it's going to be everyone but the usual suspects. (Russia, Iran, Venezuela and etc)

 

[shockedcanadian]

China WAS going to invade Taiwan.
The biggest reason is China is broke. They have a banking bond fiasco that makes the worst US banking scandals of such morals they can be Sunday School Superintendents for their piety.

So China nationalized the Private banks in Hong Kong....for the cash. But it isn't enough. Especially since every nation in the world has found other manufacturers in other countries to produce their goods. Home Depot being one of the last to leave. So now China is seeing massive unemployment.

At the base of this is the semiconductor market. Taiwan has more computer chip manufacturing than anyone else. Especially by brands that you readily know. (Micron, Intel, AMD and TSC) these "gizmos" that produce the chips are not cheap and on backorder. They require two years to manufacture. Then chemicals to operate.

There is an import ban to China that is impenetrable of these machines because there is only one company that makes them. There is a second but their "machines" are for older technology.

And China wants to control the entire market for computer chips. Especially since they have been so moral and above board before with every market they have dominated in the past.

So....EVERYONE who has a plant, equipment, employees, and/or stock in a company operating in Taiwan is going to whine the second China starts.

Plus Taiwan has enough soldiers and munitions to hold off China long enough for the whole world to kick their but. And it's going to be everyone but the usual suspects. (Russia, Iran, Venezuela and etc)

Some decent information, thank you. Can I ask where you are from John?

 

[rightwinger]

Taiwan would kick their ass if they tried

 

[JohnDB]

Some decent information, thank you. Can I ask where you are from John?

I am from the US of A. Everywhere....coast to coast in all 4 corners of the lower 48 and did a stint in Alaska.

China has been testing their troops on India. (They share a border) And China has been trying to move it westward.

But then the Ukraine War broke out...and they have been watching Russia fail miserably against NATO munitions and tech. Especially when the soldiers are trained how to use them. Then there's the munitions hunger. Then internal politics makes waging this war difficult for Russia...of which China is not immune from either.

China is reevaluating their thoughts on invading. It's not going to be easy...expensive in terms of lives, money, customers for products (sanctions and reparations) and equipment. There definitely would be hell to pay.

China wants Russia and the United States to be very weak before they even start to invade Taiwan. And the USA and NATO are anything else but weak....and they are gaining military strength as we speak. So it would be a really really bad idea if China invaded. And Taiwan has promised that they would rather make the island a wasteland like it was when they were exiled to it originally than to let China have anything of value from invading.

 

[rightwinger]

China hasn’t engaged in modern warfare.
They have also never executed an amphibious invasion

To choose Taiwan as their first attempt would be doomed to fail. Taiwan has done nothing but prepare for invasion for the last 75 years

Even if China managed to get a foothold in Taiwan, they couldn’t logistically support the invasion over 100 miles of water

 

[JohnDB]

Taiwan's best resource is their people. They are educated and trained in how to work in the semiconductor industry. This industry is highly complicated as is most cutting edge electronics are. But they have the people who have been doing this for a while.

Sure, China wants the money in Taiwanese Banks and the Silicon wafer/computer chip manufacturing capabilities....but it won't get them both....maybe one but not the other.

Computers will get scarce and very expensive if this war happens.

 

[Ringo]

 

[Persuader]

Gordon Chang to Newsmax: China Wants 'an Accident' to Lead to War​

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/china-war-balloons/2023/04/15/id/1116286/#:~:text=Chang%20to%20Newsmax%3A-,China,-Wants%20%27an%20Accident

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Taiwan would kick their ass if they tried

Taiwan has promised that they would rather make the island a wasteland … than to let China have anything of value from invading.

I think these two comments are very misleading.

First, should serious military conflict break out deliberately or by accident in the next period, China will not “invade” but rather seek to destroy most Taiwanese military capability and embargo the island, preventing air and port facilities / shipping from functioning. This is a simpler and much more realizable military goal for them and one they hope and expect will force Taiwan to capitulate to specific demands.

Second, the Taiwanese people have not at all yet indicated they “would rather make the island a wasteland … than let China have anything of value from invading.” Again, the “invasion” trope is misleading. The language of “better dead than red” may well be the fall-back position of some complacent liberals and American neo-cons, but it is not at all evident — any more than it was in HongKong — that the majority will “fight to the death.”

Of course most Westerners do not want to see a war fought over democratic Taiwan or a Chinese Communist invasion of the island. We would love Taiwan’s example of democracy and rule of law to spread to the Mainland.

I think it is quite possible that Xi or future nationalist leaders in China will nevertheless be able to pressure Taiwan and its people to capitulate and accept a “two-systems” regime under mainland control. The U.S. is busy now moving key chip-making talent and industry out of the island. (Also, about a million Taiwanese live and work on the Mainland.)

Putin’s present troubles in internationally recognized independent Ukraine (connected by land to both the West and Russia) only means China’s Communist Party & government will plan more carefully before making moves on Taiwan. It will do so using diplomatic claims that it has the right under the internationally accepted “One China” policy to require that non-independent Taiwan accept certain demands.

The key issue I want to stress here is that in the end the U.S. is not able to “save Taiwan” militarily. In my opinion most of the world (even most of the Western world and the UN) will not join a belligerent U.S. (if the U.S. is determined to try) to break a mainland blockade of Taiwan … if and when China demonstrates it can and will impose one.

Of course many things can, and hopefully will, change before such a terrible eventuality arises. But time is getting short and dumb Western efforts to de facto end its old “One China” agreement, to stop Taiwanese high tech trade with China and arm Taiwan to the hilt — these policies are actually making Chinese nationalist CP leaders speed up preparations for using force. This is the terrible dynamic unfolding before us.

All this is despite the fact that even a mainland blockade and related strikes on Taiwan would have devastating results on the world and especially China’s political economy. My point is U.S. arrogance here is not helping. In terms of realistic power projection, and diplomatic status, Taiwan is not Ukraine.

 

[rightwinger]

I think these two comments are very misleading.

First, should serious military conflict break out deliberately or by accident in the next period, China will not “invade” but rather seek to destroy most Taiwanese military capability and embargo the island, preventing air and port facilities / shipping from functioning. This is a simpler and much more realizable military goal for them and one they hope and expect will force Taiwan to capitulate to specific demands.

Second, the Taiwanese people have not at all yet indicated they “would rather make the island a wasteland … than let China have anything of value from invading.” Again, the “invasion” trope is misleading. The language of “better dead than red” may well be the fall-back position of some complacent liberals and American neo-cons, but it is not at all evident — any more than it was in HongKong — that the majority will “fight to the death.”

Of course most Westerners do not want to see a war fought over democratic Taiwan or a Chinese Communist invasion of the island. We would love Taiwan’s example of democracy and rule of law to spread to the Mainland.

I think it is quite possible that Xi or future nationalist leaders in China will nevertheless be able to pressure Taiwan and its people to capitulate and accept a “two-systems” regime under mainland control. The U.S. is busy now moving key chip-making talent and industry out of the island. (Also, about a million Taiwanese live and work on the Mainland.)

Putin’s present troubles in internationally recognized independent Ukraine (connected by land to both the West and Russia) only means China’s Communist apparatus will plan more carefully before making moves on Taiwan. They will do so using diplomatic claims that it has the right under the internationally accepted “One China” policy to demand that non-independent Taiwan accept certain demands.

The key issue I want to stress here is that in the end the U.S. is not able to “save Taiwan” militarily. In my opinion most of the world (even most of the Western world and the UN) will not join a belligerent U.S. (if the U.S. is determined to try) to break a mainland blockade of Taiwan … if and when China demonstrates it can and will impose one.

Of course many things can, and hopefully will, change before such a terrible eventuality arises. But time is getting short and dumb Western efforts to de facto end its old “One China” agreement, to stop Taiwanese high tech trade with China and arm Taiwan to the hilt — these policies are actually making Chinese nationalist CP leaders speed up preparations for using force. This is the terrible dynamic unfolding before us.

All this is despite the fact that even a mainland blockade and related strikes on Taiwan would have devastating results on the world and especially China’s political economy. My point is U.S. arrogance here is not helping. In terms of realistic power projection, and diplomatic status, Taiwan is not Ukraine.

Good point
I agree a Chinese invasion is not practical

The question is…….Would the US Navy try to break the blockade?

 

[whitehall]

There's lots of rumors regarding foreign policy floating around but Americans can't get the government's version because the president is incapable of facing the media.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Two points here. First, U.S. policy on Taiwan (Ukraine, etc.) does not require a President to get out there and “spill the beans.” That is why the “Security State” hates whistleblowers like Snowden and Assange. There are plenty of State Department, DOD and WH spokesmen available to explain — with whatever propagandistic or “diplomatic” language necessary — U.S. policies. Even under “I love WikiLeaks” Donald Trump, Pompeo initiated the most serious and still in effect prosecution of Assange, while our then “in your face” President waxed hot and cold in a bewildering manner towards Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong-un.

The second point is that toward Taiwan (and Ukraine) the U.S. maintains a certain intentional ambiguity, talking about giving them the ability to defend themselves but not making clear how far we are willing to go militarily in a crisis. In fact, our own “Security State” experts are themselves not unanimous, and neither are our citizens.

Back during the 1960 presidential campaign, I recall how refreshing it was when JFK — who was then pushing his own “Missile Gap” propaganda — candidly disagreed with Nixon and declared he would not go to war to save Quemoy and Matsu, two tiny KMT-occupied island outposts just a few miles from the Chinese Coast. They are still there — but may become an early practice run for China’s amphibious forces. Since then, of course, the power dynamic has shifted immensely in China’s favor. Nobody cares about tiny Quemoy and Matsu anymore. The issue is exactly as whitehall asks, “Would the U.S. Navy try to break the blockade?” — of Taiwan itself.

For fun, see if you can find the islands of Quemoy and Matsu on the Wikipedia map:

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org