Mid-term elections

[jreeves]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

 

[Mad Scientist]

I have no faith in the current crop of Republicans. I'm still expecting Juan McCain at any moment to get in front of a microphone and say that Obama is a great guy and doing a wonderful job.

Do I really want them in charge?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

"Generic" polling means nothing. And neither do "trends". Corzine will lose in New Jersey - and Deeds will probably lose as well. But unless you can find polling for any Congressmembers who are facing a real challenge, this is all meaningless. We're a year away from the midterms - trends mean nothing this far out.

 

[Bill O'Olberman]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

"Generic" polling means nothing. And neither do "trends". Corzine will lose in New Jersey - and Deeds will probably lose as well. But unless you can find polling for any Congressmembers who are facing a real challenge, this is all meaningless. We're a year away from the midterms - trends mean nothing this far out.

Yeah, Virginia's gubernatorial race shouldnt really be used to judge the Republican's future especially in national politics. Because Warner is going to be in the Senate as long as he wants, no Republican will come close, and Webb can be gotten to its just depends on who the Republicans run and how well they campaign.

Republicans should pick up a couple of seats in 2010 unless a magical economic boom occurs or some kind of super-mega democratic success. Of course, dont be too optimistic GOP. In 2012 I just hope the Repubicans run a presidential candidate who is more of a libertarian than one who is of the evangalical/religious right brand of conservatism. I mean having to throw my vote behind candidates, Badnarik in 2004 and Barr in 2008, who had no real chance of winning kinda sucked but hey, the lp is the party of principle.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

"Generic" polling means nothing. And neither do "trends". Corzine will lose in New Jersey - and Deeds will probably lose as well. But unless you can find polling for any Congressmembers who are facing a real challenge, this is all meaningless. We're a year away from the midterms - trends mean nothing this far out.

Yeah, Virginia's gubernatorial race shouldnt really be used to judge the Republican's future especially in national politics. Because Warner is going to be in the Senate as long as he wants, no Republican will come close, and Webb can be gotten to its just depends on who the Republicans run and how well they campaign.

Republicans should pick up a couple of seats in 2010 unless a magical economic boom occurs or some kind of super-mega democratic success. Of course, dont be too optimistic GOP. In 2012 I just hope the Repubicans run a presidential candidate who is more of a libertarian than one who is of the evangalical/religious right brand of conservatism. I mean having to throw my vote behind candidates, Badnarik in 2004 and Barr in 2008, who had no real chance of winning kinda sucked but hey, the lp is the party of principle.

I'm pretty sure that the GOP will pick up a seat or 2 in 2010, but nothing that substantial, and as for 2012, I wouldn't get my hopes up about a libertarian-type nominee from the GOP. As for throwing your vote behind candidates with no chance of winning - I live in NY, so I can vote however I want, the state is gonna go blue. I used to vote straight down the Marijuana Reform Party line, until they lost their ballot line in NY back in 2004.

 

[jreeves]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

"Generic" polling means nothing. And neither do "trends". Corzine will lose in New Jersey - and Deeds will probably lose as well. But unless you can find polling for any Congressmembers who are facing a real challenge, this is all meaningless. We're a year away from the midterms - trends mean nothing this far out.

When this polling comes to fruition it will be a sad awakening for the Dems. People are fed up with this Congress, its also pretty apparent at the Town Halls that have been held around the country.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The people are not fed up with Congress, they are fed with the far right wing of the GOP. That's why the Republicans lost last year and are going to lose next year. Until the Palins et al are banished, the GOP remains a definite minority for a long, long time.

 

[jreeves]

The people are not fed up with Congress, they are fed with the far right wing of the GOP. That's why the Republicans lost last year and are going to lose next year. Until the Palins et al are banished, the GOP remains a definite minority for a long, long time.

Yep that's the reason that generic Rep. are polling 5 points above Dems.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

The people are not fed up with Congress, they are fed with the far right wing of the GOP. That's why the Republicans lost last year and are going to lose next year. Until the Palins et al are banished, the GOP remains a definite minority for a long, long time.

Yep that's the reason that generic Rep. are polling 5 points above Dems.

We'll just have to see in 2010. But, as I said before, no one who knows anything about how politics works puts any weight on "generic" polling a year before the election.

 

[jreeves]

The people are not fed up with Congress, they are fed with the far right wing of the GOP. That's why the Republicans lost last year and are going to lose next year. Until the Palins et al are banished, the GOP remains a definite minority for a long, long time.

Yep that's the reason that generic Rep. are polling 5 points above Dems.

We'll just have to see in 2010. But, as I said before, no one who knows anything about how politics works puts any weight on "generic" polling a year before the election.

It is still early, I was only pointing out the trends. This isn't even counting Obama's colossal drop in his approval rating...

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Yep that's the reason that generic Rep. are polling 5 points above Dems.

We'll just have to see in 2010. But, as I said before, no one who knows anything about how politics works puts any weight on "generic" polling a year before the election.

It is still early, I was only pointing out the trends. This isn't even counting Obama's colossal drop in his approval rating...

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

 

[jreeves]

We'll just have to see in 2010. But, as I said before, no one who knows anything about how politics works puts any weight on "generic" polling a year before the election.

It is still early, I was only pointing out the trends. This isn't even counting Obama's colossal drop in his approval rating...

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[theDoctorisIn]

It is still early, I was only pointing out the trends. This isn't even counting Obama's colossal drop in his approval rating...

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 7986

Apologies, I read the graph wrong. This time in Clinton's first term, he polled in the very low 40s.

And as I said before, we'll see when the elections come. But no "trends" have meaning, this far out. Everything changes very quickly in politics.

Keep in mind, we're pulling out of a recession right now. The market's on its way back up. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

 

[jreeves]

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 7986

Apologize, I read the graph wrong. This time in Clinton's first term, he polled in the very low 40s.

And as I said before, we'll see when the elections come. But no "trends" have meaning, this far out. Everything changes very quickly in politics.

Keep in mind, we're pulling out of a recession right now. The market's on its way back up. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

If unemployment keeps climbing, Obama and Biden will be the only ones with jobs by next year....

 

[jreeves]

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 7986

Apologize, I read the graph wrong. This time in Clinton's first term, he polled in the very low 40s.

And as I said before, we'll see when the elections come. But no "trends" have meaning, this far out. Everything changes very quickly in politics.

Keep in mind, we're pulling out of a recession right now. The market's on its way back up. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

If unemployment keeps climbing, Obama and Biden will be the only ones with jobs by next year....

My god even the Dem. Senate majority leader is polling behind a guy who's dad chews on a towels.

2010 SENATE CAMPAIGN: Polls show potential GOP challengers would beat Harry Reid - News - ReviewJournal.com

Nevadans favored Tarkanian over Reid 49 percent to 38 percent and Lowden over Reid 45 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll.

Jerry Tarkanian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jerry Tarkanian (born August 8, 1930), also known as "Tark the Shark", is an Armenian-American former college basketball coach known for colorful behavior, including habitually chewing on a towel during games, and for his public criticisms of and clashes with the NCAA. He was head coach at three different Division I schools, each of which was subsequently penalized by the NCAA.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

My god even the Dem. Senate majority leader is polling behind a guy who's dad chews on a towels.

2010 SENATE CAMPAIGN: Polls show potential GOP challengers would beat Harry Reid - News - ReviewJournal.com

Nevadans favored Tarkanian over Reid 49 percent to 38 percent and Lowden over Reid 45 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll.

Jerry Tarkanian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jerry Tarkanian (born August 8, 1930), also known as "Tark the Shark", is an Armenian-American former college basketball coach known for colorful behavior, including habitually chewing on a towel during games, and for his public criticisms of and clashes with the NCAA. He was head coach at three different Division I schools, each of which was subsequently penalized by the NCAA.

The only poll that matters will take place the first tuesday in November of next year.

 

[elvis]

It is still early, I was only pointing out the trends. This isn't even counting Obama's colossal drop in his approval rating...

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 7986

I thought he polled at 39 during l'aiffaire Lewinsky. (shrug)

 

[theDoctorisIn]

At this time in Clinton's presidency, his approval rating was in the 30s. And yet, not only was he elected for a second term, he ended his presidency with one of the highest approval ratings ever. It means nothing.

And "trends" mean even less. Give me one example of a "trend" this early that predicted anything.

hmm..Clinton in the 30's? Btw what happened to Congress in the Mid term elections under Clinton?
Midterm Presidential Approval Ratings


BTW....

Clinton never polled in the 30's...

File:Clinton approval rating.JPG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

View attachment 7986

I thought he polled at 39 during l'aiffaire Lewinsky. (shrug)

Nope. The whole Lewinsky thing kinda brought his approval ratings up.

 

[jreeves]

My god even the Dem. Senate majority leader is polling behind a guy who's dad chews on a towels.

2010 SENATE CAMPAIGN: Polls show potential GOP challengers would beat Harry Reid - News - ReviewJournal.com

Nevadans favored Tarkanian over Reid 49 percent to 38 percent and Lowden over Reid 45 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll.

Jerry Tarkanian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jerry Tarkanian (born August 8, 1930), also known as "Tark the Shark", is an Armenian-American former college basketball coach known for colorful behavior, including habitually chewing on a towel during games, and for his public criticisms of and clashes with the NCAA. He was head coach at three different Division I schools, each of which was subsequently penalized by the NCAA.

The only poll that matters will take place the first tuesday in November of next year.

Its the only poll that matters....
Yet with all these different snapshots at the races, it looks as though the Dems are in trouble.

 

[Sidestreamer]

I believe 2010 will be a terrible year for the Dems. Trends show that this may very well be the case.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - Virginia Governor - McDonnell vs. Deeds

RealClearPolitics - Election 2009 - New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie

The latest poll shows that Dems are trailing by 5 points and the two Governor races show that Dems will both of these races.

Corzine was never that well liked so the NJ poll doesn't surprise me, but I'm not sure how that's going to amount to Republicans taking any new seat in the House from there. Other than Monmouth/Ocean counties and the extreme northern part of the state, it'll never turn red.

The general poll totals suggest a slight edge for Democrats, so, I'm not sure what you're seeing that suggests any major Republican gain, the NJ governorship aside.