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Apparently, all odds are that Nicolas Sarkozy will become President of France in 2007.
Apparently, all odds are that Nicolas Sarkozy will become President of France in 2007.
-Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Wither France? The Next President of the French Republic
http://newsisyphus.blogspot.com/ (scroll down the page to find the article)
Americans have become more conscious at any time since World War II of France. Since the run up to the Iraq War, France--her policies, her peoples and her place in the West--have been the subject of furious debate. On the one side, we have the haters of France, the despisers of poet/foreign ministers who can give their word to our Secretary of State and then jump him with a changed position mid-meeting. On the other, we have the Francophiles, those to whom France is the anti-America, the everything good that we are bad.
In reality, though, there is just France, a deeply troubled country, a people at the crossroads, a country with deep structural problems, a burgeoning social crisis and an increasingly unsure populace. Which is why the seemingly irresistable rise of a new kind of politician there is so interesting.
Rest of the World, meet the next President of France: Nicolas Sarkozy.
Sarkozy is an oddity among a political class famed for its homogeneousness. Born in 1955, in Paris, Sarkozy is the son of an aristocratic Hungarian immigrant/political refugee in a nation that is long on big talk about its welcoming attitude towards immigrants, yet mysterious short of them in her upper ranks. His mother has both Greek and Jewish ancestry, in a culture that largely looks down its nose at both. Unlike most in the political elite, he did not attend the exclusive schools of pubilc administration; instead he became just your average run-of-the-mill lawyer. Nothing in his background can be found in the biographies of past presidents.
In government, he was Interior Minister (a post which, under the French system, is in charge of internal security; think Attorney General, Homeland Security Secretary and FBI chief all rolled into one big post) at a time when many French were beginning to rightfully worry about law and order. Yet he came out of the post more popular then when he entered it. Next, he was handed the Finance Ministry portfolio by an angry President Chirac, enraged by his one-time protege's support of a rival candidate in 1995. This move that was widely (and quite properly) seen as way for the elite to discredit him. It was too good a position to refuse, and, at the same time, too much of a nightmare for anyone to be successful at. After all, who can make sense of the Republic's finances? It was and remains a losing hand. And yet again, to everyone's amazement, he left that post more popular than any other minister currently in government.
In what was widely rumored to be a behind-the-scenes deal to heal the rift between Chirac and Sarkozy, Sarkozy stepped down from the government in exchange for the leadership of the UMP, the president's own party. In charge of the UMP since November, 2004, Sarkozy is expected to use this power base as the platform for a run for the presidency in 2007 as the mainstream right's main candidate. (The candidate of the mainstream left, like it or not, will probably be the insufferable Jack Lang). While things could change considerably between now and 2007, it looks to be almost certain that Sarkozy will become president in that year.
What matters to Americans, of course, is what kind of president Sarkozy is likely to be and whether or not the current policies of France will be maintained. Will France continue to oppose the United States, or will a new era of partnership be ushered in?
The core of France's policies will be maintained, albeit in a very new fashion. For Sarkozy is to France what Tony Blair is to the U.K: at once and the same time a product of his particular political environment who is yet capable of defying it and taking it on when necessary. Sarkozy, like Blair, is a person who knows what our civilization is and what is worth defending.
As Interior Minister, Sarkozy got a lot of credit with the average Frenchman by taking on the rather obvious problem of Muslim assimilation head on. Basically, Sarkozy's take on the issue was to valididate France's commitment to immigaration while, as the same time, breaking with the stifling European orthodoxy by demanding that French Muslims adopt French values. In fact, had John Ashcroft lectured American Muslims in a manner even approaching that of Sarkozy, the international press would still be talking about it. For example, in addressing the largest civic Muslim group in France, Sarkozy announced that he would order deported any imam found preaching sedition in French mosques. One cannot overstate the breath of fresh air such plain-speaking was and is in the European context.
At the same time, Sarkozy had caused to be created a new national Muslim council, to act as the French Muslim community's official government body. (You're nothing in France until you have such an organization). While election to this body dismayed observers--a large number of radicals or quasi-radicals (think CAIR) were elected--the vast majority of the French agreed with Sarkozy's basic vision. Sarkozy was giving the Muslims of France a stake in civil society. All they had to to do was grab it. The fact that they, by and large, did not, spoke volumes and further justified an even harder line. Search the Web for more than a minute and you'll find some Muslim group decrying the mass deportations Sarkozy ordered.
Sarkozy's no-nonsense approach resonates with a people who feel culturally threatened and that, at the same time, wish to be reasonable, to be fair. He is popular precisely because he speaks to that same "silent majority" that exists in France as in the United States.
Sarkozy is said to be enamored with the great thinkers of the Anglo political heritage. However, it would be a mistake to label him as in favor of "les anglo-saxons." Instead, he is a new kind a leader, one needed for a new kind of France, one less married to the orthodoxies of the past given the shape of new problems. As the Economist noted recently:
Mr Sarkozy, by contrast, has no time for tradition for tradition's sake. In an enlarged Europe, he argues that France can no longer rely on the Franco-German motor and needs to cultivate a group of six that also includes Britain, Spain, Italy and Poland. Atlantic-minded, he urges a milder approach to America. He advocates an overhaul of the French social model, pushing for less state regulation and a more flexible labour market; his inspirations are Britain and Spain, not moribund Germany. He considers that the French model of integration has failed French Muslims, and argues for American-style social engineering to help minorities advance. In short, where Mr Chirac urges caution and conservatism, Mr Sarkozy presses for modernisation and change. France is not eternal, says one of his aides. If it does not reform, it will disappear.
Well said. There is no doubt that France will continue to be a difficult friend even in the best of times. It is, however, heartening that the next president of France realizes what no other French politician dares dream: there is a battle on for the soul of France, and to the winner the spoils.