Massive Russian offensive begins, capturing major roads, rails, and defensive positions.

[DarthTrader]

So much for the "Ukraine counter offensive" and desperate pleas for 20 artillery pieces.

Russia is moving to close the pocket on ALL FRONTS.

It looks like the Russians want to capture an even bigger pocket than previously assessed. 100,000 Ukrainian troops are located on the inside of the dotted line by Rubizhne along that line where the front was stalled.

Russians now are going for Pokrovsk it appears, based on the roads and cities they are capturing.

 

[JWBooth]

Nah, the Ukronazis are winning, just any of the Aryan sympathizers here on the board.

 

[Cassandro]

Again?

 

[Turtlesoup]

So much for the "Ukraine counter offensive" and desperate pleas for 20 artillery pieces.

Russia is moving to close the pocket on ALL FRONTS.

It looks like the Russians want to capture an even bigger pocket than previously assessed. 100,000 Ukrainian troops are located on the inside of the dotted line by Rubizhne along that line where the front was stalled.

Russians now are going for Pokrovsk it appears, based on the roads and cities they are capturing.
View attachment 637155

Awful-----my heart breaks for the Ukrainians. The Russians will be hated for generations for this and their other invasions. I hear Maldova has been invaded as well now.

 

[Confederate Soldier]

This is expected, but I also expect heavy losses for the Russians. The Russians are moving easier up North, but are still struggling in the South and in the East. Ukraine has been preparing defensive positions in the East since 2014 and the Russians are struggling to penetrate these defenses. If the Russians continue from the North and move South to encircle the Ukrainians, then I would call it a pocket. It isn't quite that yet. I'd be interested in seeing a map labeling Ukrainians armies.

 

[Confederate Soldier]

Awful-----my heart breaks for the Ukrainians. The Russians will be hated for generations for this and their other invasions. I hear Maldova has been invaded as well now.

Not yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Russia invaded there as well. A theory I have been pondering is Russia grabs the Donbass region, quits the fight in Ukraine, invades Moldova, and then they call it a day.

 

[toobfreak]

Awful-----my heart breaks for the Ukrainians. The Russians will be hated for generations for this and their other invasions. I hear Maldova has been invaded as well now.

Yeah but:

1. Can anyone say they are honestly surprised?
2. Zelensky might have ended all this weeks ago by talking with Putin and reaching a deal. Unless NATO puts boots on the ground like they said they never would, Russia is going to eventually get its way.

 

[Batcat]

Awful-----my heart breaks for the Ukrainians. The Russians will be hated for generations for this and their other invasions. I hear Maldova has been invaded as well now.

So the Russians take over a section of Ukraine. Then for years they face an enemy that uses guerrilla warfare tactics.Eventually Russian realizes it is slowly going broke fighting a war they can never truly win and leave before there is a rebellion in Russia.

 

[DarthTrader]

This is expected, but I also expect heavy losses for the Russians. The Russians are moving easier up North, but are still struggling in the South and in the East. Ukraine has been preparing defensive positions in the East since 2014 and the Russians are struggling to penetrate these defenses. If the Russians continue from the North and move South to encircle the Ukrainians, then I would call it a pocket. It isn't quite that yet. I'd be interested in seeing a map labeling Ukrainians armies.

It's already a pocket, just look at a ww2 map and see how frequently these occur. That's why it's so important to have discipline across the line. The defensive positions were being bombarded for a week with just intense artillery. They probably don't exist anymore because it takes a LOT of manpower to maintain a trench.

They only have 100,000, they'd need closer to a million.

 

[Confederate Soldier]

It's already a pocket, just look at a ww2 map and see how frequently these occur. That's why it's so important to have discipline across the line. The defensive positions were being bombarded for a week with just intense artillery. They probably don't exist anymore because it takes a LOT of manpower to maintain a trench.

They only have 100,000, they'd need closer to a million.

While I agree that they are outnumbered, I do not agree it is a pocket. It isn't a very defined "pocket" of anything, because it has just started. If I see the Russians move down from the north and keep moving, then I can safely call this a pocket. It's too early yet.

 

[Toro]

There is no "Massive Russian offensive." This is propaganda from the Russian trolls.

 

[ESay]

Not yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Russia invaded there as well. A theory I have been pondering is Russia grabs the Donbass region, quits the fight in Ukraine, invades Moldova, and then they call it a day.

The thing is if they want to invade Moldova, they can't quit the fight in Ukraine. On the contrary, they should intensify this fight and move deeper into Ukraine's territory.

 

[Sunni Man]

In my opinion, the Russian army in the south will keep heading west and take the major port of Odessa. Then Russia will control the entire northern coast of the Black Sea and thereby block Ukraine from receiving any resupply by ships. Effectively making Ukraine a landlocked country.

Putin will then annex the long thin strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine that's an independent region called Transnistria.
Most of the people in Transnistria are ethnic Russians and want to be part of Russia.

 

[para bellum]

This youtube channel has the best breakdowns I have seen so far on troop positions and movements.

The updates are kind of long, but they're well done and the guy knows the country.

 

[para bellum]

In my opinion, the Russian army in the south will keep heading west and take the major port of Odessa. Then Russia will control the entire northern coast of the Black Sea and thereby block Ukraine from receiving any resupply by ships. Effectively making Ukraine a landlocked country.

Ukraine is not getting resupply by ship now- Russia controls the Black Sea. They were getting some fuel maybe, but the bridge is blown now and that route is closed.

Mariupol was 400K population and it took 13K+ Russian forces 2 months to "sort-of" take Mariupol. against 1800 azovs and 3600 AFU marines.

Osdessa is one million. At the start of the invasion, Russia had (IIRC) 6 phibs in the Black Sea. One is on the bottom, one is torched, another has damage unknown.

That leaves the capability to land about 2,000 troops and maybe 80 tanks. IF the Russians were willing to risk the AShM's from Ukraine (which they are clearly not).

Those Russian forces freed up from Mariupol are not moving west, they are moving north towards Donestk along the H20. There isn't a lot of combat power there. And they are trying to hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kherson, with mixed results.

Odessa is off the table for the time being. There simply is not available Russian forces to make the try. All Putin can do is send more missiles into Odessa.

Also the Kerch Strait Bridge is a juicy target for Ukraine. If they can figure out a way to take out that bridge, it extends the southern LOC and makes resupply from Crimea a lot harder.

Putin will then annex the long thin strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine that's an independent region called Transnistria.
Most of the people in Transnistria are ethnic Russians and want to be part of Russia.

There are about 1500 Russian troops and about 8500 proxy militia in Transnistria. Reports have been that they are not interested in joining the war, I can't say.

There are some ammunition and weapons depots there that Ukraine would love to get their hands on.

I wrote some time back that I was waiting to see if Russia was going to get smart, and I'm finally seeing signs of that happening. They are no longer moving in long parades and "parking lot" formations, where they all pull into town with their barrels at 12 o'clock, and then stop for lunch or something while the AFU tears them to pieces.

In the north they are doing a "creeping advance"- basically pulverize the ground ahead with arty and then move forward slowly. This is effective if there is sufficient ammunition, and Russia appears to have sufficient ammunition. The formations are moving in parallel so they can offer some mutual support and protect each other's flanks.

It's safer, but slow. There isn't going to be any big victories by May 9.

The command and control is still very weak on the Russian side. When they do break through, by the time the word gets back to the CAA HQ the Ukrainians have already plugged the hole and pushed the attackers back. So there is no exploitation of the breaches when they do happen.

I don't know anyone who thinks Russia has the force strength to do an encirclement of the JFOA. Rule of thumb is 3:1, and Russia currently has 2:1, and no apparent way to increase that in the short term.

 

[ESay]

Ukraine is not getting resupply by ship now- Russia controls the Black Sea. They were getting some fuel maybe, but the bridge is blown now and that route is closed.

Mariupol was 400K population and it took 13K+ Russian forces 2 months to "sort-of" take Mariupol. against 1800 azovs and 3600 AFU marines.

Osdessa is one million. At the start of the invasion, Russia had (IIRC) 6 phibs in the Black Sea. One is on the bottom, one is torched, another has damage unknown.

That leaves the capability to land about 2,000 troops and maybe 80 tanks. IF the Russians were willing to risk the AShM's from Ukraine (which they are clearly not).

Those Russian forces freed up from Mariupol are not moving west, they are moving north towards Donestk along the H20. There isn't a lot of combat power there. And they are trying to hold back the Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kherson, with mixed results.

Odessa is off the table for the time being. There simply is not available Russian forces to make the try. All Putin can do is send more missiles into Odessa.

Also the Kerch Strait Bridge is a juicy target for Ukraine. If they can figure out a way to take out that bridge, it extends the southern LOC and makes resupply from Crimea a lot harder.

There are about 1500 Russian troops and about 8500 proxy militia in Transnistria. Reports have been that they are not interested in joining the war, I can't say.

There are some ammunition and weapons depots there that Ukraine would love to get their hands on.

I wrote some time back that I was waiting to see if Russia was going to get smart, and I'm finally seeing signs of that happening. They are no longer moving in long parades and "parking lot" formations, where they all pull into town with their barrels at 12 o'clock, and then stop for lunch or something while the AFU tears them to pieces.

In the north they are doing a "creeping advance"- basically pulverize the ground ahead with arty and then move forward slowly. This is effective if there is sufficient ammunition, and Russia appears to have sufficient ammunition. The formations are moving in parallel so they can offer some mutual support and protect each other's flanks.

It's safer, but slow. There isn't going to be any big victories by May 9.

The command and control is still very weak on the Russian side. When they do break through, by the time the word gets back to the CAA HQ the Ukrainians have already plugged the hole and pushed the attackers back. So there is no exploitation of the breaches when they do happen.

I don't know anyone who thinks Russia has the force strength to do an encirclement of the JFOA. Rule of thumb is 3:1, and Russia currently has 2:1, and no apparent way to increase that in the short term.

There are circulating reports (not confirmed) that Ukraine wants to stage 'a special operation' in Transnistria. To draw Russian attention away form the Donbas direction, cause them a headache far from the frontline, and spread their troops.

 

[para bellum]

There are circulating reports (not confirmed) that Ukraine wants to stage 'a special operation' in Transnistria. To draw Russian attention away form the Donbas direction, cause them a headache far from the frontline, and spread their troops.

I've read a lot of speculation on both sides of the question- I'm leaning to the false flag theory, based on the narrative coming out of Russia.

Putin wants those forces in Transnistria to join the fight in Kherson- he needs to solidify the southern occupation before he can move forces up the H20.

Plus Ukraine just doesn't have the forces to mount a large scale offensive anywhere. They are in a pretty good position to hold the line, and they aren't in need of reinforcements, but they don't really have an offense. Wait and pounce, hit the supply lines and trucks, degrade Russia's ability to advance. Rinse and repeat.

Hitting an administrative building with a couple grenades isn't something Ukraine would do- they would go after the ammo or fuel dumps or some other militarily significant target.

The big risk to the JFO (imo) are the bridges across the Dnipro. If Russia takes out those bridges, it cuts Ukraine in half. That would be a huge obstacle to resupply from the west, and make the pincer a lot easier to execute.

 

[ESay]

I've read a lot of speculation on both sides of the question- I'm leaning to the false flag theory, based on the narrative coming out of Russia.

Putin wants those forces in Transnistria to join the fight in Kherson- he needs to solidify the southern occupation before he can move forces up the H20.

Plus Ukraine just doesn't have the forces to mount a large scale offensive anywhere. They are in a pretty good position to hold the line, and they aren't in need of reinforcements, but they don't really have an offense. Wait and pounce, hit the supply lines and trucks, degrade Russia's ability to advance. Rinse and repeat.

Hitting an administrative building with a couple grenades isn't something Ukraine would do- they would go after the ammo or fuel dumps or some other militarily significant target.

The big risk to the JFO (imo) are the bridges across the Dnipro. If Russia takes out those bridges, it cuts Ukraine in half. That would be a huge obstacle to resupply from the west, and make the pincer a lot easier to execute.

Yes, I understand that Ukraine doesn't have spare military units and an additional frontline may be a significant burden.

But on the other hand, how will Russia manage to move these troops to Kherson? If using a land route, they will have to march through Odessa and Mykolaiv oblasts, hundreds of kilometres, virtually through positions of Ukrainian Army.

Planes? They will have to fly over Ukrainian airspace; except of that, airfields in Transnistria are located not so far from Ukrainian border.

I highly doubt that Putin would look for any justification to use his troops and proxies from Transnistria. So, a false flag from their part doesn't make much sense, does it?

 

[para bellum]

I highly doubt that Putin would look for any justification to use his troops and proxies from Transnistria. So, a false flag from their part doesn't make much sense, does it?

I don't know Esay. If he can fix the Ukrainian forces in the south, he frees up some BTG's to move north. But not many, and like you I'm at a loss to really figure out the logic for either side.

Right now, the Ukrainians in Mykolaiv have no one threatening their rear or flank. Odessa is only lightly defended, but the Russian forces in Moldova aren't anywhere near sufficient to do anything, and an amphibious landing is not on the table.

I just don't see the troops in Transnistria as being significant. They are isolated and not in the fight, that's fine for Ukraine. The only reason to move in that direction would be to capture the depots, and Ukraine already has more T-72's than crews, and plenty of spare parts.

If you figure out what is going on, let me know...

 

[Chillicothe]

Ukraine already has more T-72's than crews, and plenty of spare parts.

Speaking of tanks. And tank crews.
Today's WaPo has interesting reportage on one of the reasons we see so many killed Russian tanks.
It's a design flaw.
That is a 'flaw' if one values tankers more than tanks.

You can read the whole enchilada in the link below, but here are some 'taster' paragraphs:


"How the ‘jack-in-the-box’ flaw dooms some Russian tanks"
By Sammy Westfall and William Neff

• "The fault is related to the way many Russian tanks hold and load ammunition. In these tanks, including the T-72, the Soviet-designed vehicle that has seen wide use in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shells are all placed in a ring within the turret. When an enemy shot hits the right spot, the ring of ammunition can quickly “cook off” and ignite a chain reaction, blasting the turret off the tank’s hull in a lethal blow."
  
  
• "The design of Russian tanks prioritizes rate of fire, firepower, a low profile, speed and maneuverability vs. overall survivability, said Hamilton. Russian tanks tend to be lighter and simpler, and have thinner, less-advanced armor than Western tanks. The design vulnerability was probably “just cheaper and lighter,” Hamilton said."
  
  
• “American tanks for a long time have prioritized crew survivability in a way that Russian tanks just haven’t,” said Hamilton. “It’s really just a difference in the design of the ammo storage compartment and a difference in prioritization.”
  
  
• "For the U.S. military, Hamilton said, “if the tank is destroyed and the crew survives, you can make another tank more quickly than you can train another crew.”
  
  
• For Russia, “the people are as expendable as the machine,” he said. “The Russians have known about this for 31 years — you have to say they’ve just chosen not to deal with it.”
  
  
• "British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace this week estimated that Russia has lost at least 530 tanks — destroyed or captured — since it invaded Ukraine in February."

------------------------------------

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/30/russian-tank-turret-blast-jack-in-the-box/