Make your bet, when will stock market collapse?

[JohnDB]

Actually there are great ETFs for shorting the market...
As well as Bull market ETFs.

I really don't care which direction it moves so long as it does move. I can make money.

Look at NUGT vs DUST. Both play either direction on gold and gold miners.

KOLD and BOIL plays natural gas in either direction.

There are tons of these...I can play them all day long. So long as the market is moving I'm making money. But play wisely. Lots of people have lost trillions out of their retirement portfolio and given it to me by being stupid this past year. Or they have played options and didn't set up known configurations for profits...instead they shot craps and lost. Known a bunch of those guys.

 

[JohnDB]

There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into

Cryptocurrency doesn't retain it's value in a declining market...just the opposite trend has been noticed lately with the spikes and tanks of the market. Gold held better.

In fact most crypto currencies fell like rocks going from 60,000-40,000 overnight.

Just saying...they will get you an IRS audit. They are not legal tender. And Coinbase is having some financial issues lately...just saying.

 

[Flopper]

A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.

Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
While historic average is about 100%.

P/E index is also 30-70% higher than in mentioned periods.

Stock market grows only on QE, which is going to be finished by March.
As well the Fed is going to start hyking the interest rate and it will make giant debt unsustainable. Mass bankruptcies will start, it will be much, much worse than the Great Depression.

And the Fed cannot but to hyke the rate, because inflation has already started to accelerate, in a year it will become hyperinflation.

And much earlier, when inflation gets two digits, capital flow from the US (including stock market) will start.
Making everything even worse...

So, name the month of 2022 when US (and World) stock market is goint to collapse.

my choice - April

Someone once said, market crashes come from specific events such as, war, disease, natural disaster, death of a leader, disclosure of very bad financial news, etc. Financial fundamentals determine whether the crash is followed by a rapid recovery or not.

 

[Siberian]

whatever you say little buddy. Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way

gold, only gold can protect you

now is the time not to make profit, risk is overwhelming , but it's time to save the capital

when all people rush to thenarrow door most capitals will evaporate.
you will not be able to sell your equities when panic avalanche starts and when dust settles you will be poor as a mice.
your virtual wealth is not real

 

[Siberian]

Someone once said, market crashes come from specific events such as, war, disease, natural disaster, death of a leader, disclosure of very bad financial news, etc. Financial fundamentals determine whether the crash is followed by a rapid recovery or not.

now when algorythms define moves of the market crashes may become a result of manipulation or a mistake as easily as by black swans.

but now, this year situation is fundamentally different than a year ago.

with inflation of 6,8% stock msrket is the only place where an investot may get profit, at all, only virtual economy based on QE makes profit.

needless to say it is an artificial and not sustainable sutuation.

so, now you need the market to grow not less than ~7-8% a year just to stay with zero profit.

you don't even need a crash to go deep into losing money mode.

if the QE is finished, as the Fed promises, people start losing money as soon as the market starts to stagnate.

you don't need black swans, you just need several % of investors not to be as dumb as a log and start selling their stocks.

a relatively long period of stagnation or minor decline may start an avalanche of selling.
2 months, I presume. in spring. this is how it will be.

even if Putin doesn't surprise you with his response to US missiles and bases moving right to the Russian borders, and he has set the date for the US to respond to his ultimatum, mid January...

so, I expect a major crash not later than April, and then the Fed will resume QE, and in much bigger scale than before, tens of trillions, then - hyperinflation and the end of the World as we know it...

 

[Slade3200]

A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.

Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
While historic average is about 100%.

P/E index is also 30-70% higher than in mentioned periods.

Stock market grows only on QE, which is going to be finished by March.
As well the Fed is going to start hyking the interest rate and it will make giant debt unsustainable. Mass bankruptcies will start, it will be much, much worse than the Great Depression.

And the Fed cannot but to hyke the rate, because inflation has already started to accelerate, in a year it will become hyperinflation.

And much earlier, when inflation gets two digits, capital flow from the US (including stock market) will start.
Making everything even worse...

So, name the month of 2022 when US (and World) stock market is goint to collapse.

my choice - April

Why do you think mass bankruptcies are coming? There is more currency circulating than ever before and investments are skyrocketing… the economy is opening up and GDP is growing… unemployment is shrinking back to all time lows.

yes the fed will raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will reduce lending and investment but won’t create a recession/m or depression. To do that you need ultra high unemployment or something to cause mass bankruptcies. I’m not seeing that on the horizon. So what about this economy makes you think we are on the verge of collapse?

 

[Siberian]

Why do you think mass bankruptcies are coming? There is more currency circulating than ever before and investments are skyrocketing… the economy is opening up and GDP is growing… unemployment is shrinking back to all time lows.

yes the fed will raise interest rates to curb inflation. This will reduce lending and investment but won’t create a recession/m or depression. To do that you need ultra high unemployment or something to cause mass bankruptcies. I’m not seeing that on the horizon. So what about this economy makes you think we are on the verge of collapse?

unemployment now is a problem from another direction.

having spent a year on extra covid subsidies, many Americans loved to get free money without working.
so, unemployment is low, about 5%(?), while vacant jobs are about 10%. US lacks labour, it presses down production, creates deficite of goods.
more and more Americans fall out of labor force, they stop working relying on subsidies.

And if you deprive them of subsidies BLM riots will look like kindergarden... Domestic situation in the US is already awful, the country is on the brink of civil war, Trump will win next mid and presidential elections, with Democrats most probably trying to remove him via the Ukrainian - like coup, CIA has mastered technology of colored revolutions...
So, situation in the US is explosive, especially will be in 2023 and 2024.

this is about unemployment.

as for the rest of causes.
as I said, lack of labour affects local US production, import from China etc. grows.

And the problem is that liquidity is abundant only in the US, EU, Japan, UK and several other privileged Western minors like Sweden etc. - those who can QE.

The rest of the World can't and global inflation destroys them absolutely. I expect defaults of countries to start this year, Turkey, Egypt, Etc., with consequent hyperinflation and collaose of economy.
And they are producers and exporters to the US, i. e. deficite of goods Worldwide will grow, inflation in the US will keep growing, I expectcit it to become 2 digits by or in spring.

It means that the whole economy will sink deeper into unprofitability and you will need more growth in stock market to stay at least with zero losses...
More QE is needed even without any stock market collapse, while the Fed stops it by March....

As for the rate hyke. in 2008 the West was overdebted. By 2022 the World is overdebted, this period of 2008-2022 was quiet only because the West was sucking solvency out of the rest of the World.
Everybody was given a cheap credit, now there is nobody without debt in the World.

And now either you stretch your Western QEs to the rest of the World or debt will start to collapse in countries with small curencies, where central banks cannot print money without accelerating inflation immediately.

so, the rate hyke.
It will kill the unsolvent debtors, and in the US half of economy is unsolvent if the rate is higher than 5%. This is the reason why the Fed moved the rate to 0,25%, why ECB, UK, Japan moved their rates to zero - THE WESTERN ECONOMY AS A WHOLE IS UNSOLVENT, A BUNKRUPT LIVING ON LIFE SUPPORT OF PERMANENT QE AND ZERO INTEREST RATE.

and you are talking about some growth...
if you inject several trillions via government budget yearly, give credit to everybody with zero rate it may look like this government-financed expansion is growth but it is not.

 

[Siberian]

speaking short - absence of QE will inevitably lead to collapse of the stock market.

rate hyke will kill all debtors and the whole US economy.
so, it is just empty talk of the Fed, a game to make you think that inflation is stoppable, while it is not.

after the first crash of the stock market in spring the Fed will resume QE in much bigger scale, will forget about hyking the rate.

inflation will accelerate, leading to civil unrest and political hyrricane by elections in 2024.

I expect the US not to survive it.
Economic problems usually lead to situation when every new leader gets extremely unpopular very soon after his election.

Look at Ukraine or Georgia (a country, not US state) , they make coups every several years, presidents are first loved and then overthrown. This is a fate of a failed state, and the US is a failed state too, just with temporary advantage of having a World reserve currency, which is now crumbling due to accelerating inflation.

So, I expect Trump (or a republican) to be elected in 2025, but he will not stop fast economic decline and will get extremely unpopular within his first year.

Maximum in 2025 I expect a Democratic coup.
Maybe even immediayely after elections. The losing side will not recognize elections results. Republicans will not too, if Democrats with voting by mail get 105% of votes in their favor...

You may have noticed I am not very optomistic about the future of the US..

 

[Slade3200]

unemployment now is a problem from another direction.

having spent a year on extra covid subsidies, many Americans loved to get free money without working.
so, unemployment is low, about 5%(?), while vacant jobs are about 10%. US lacks labour, it presses down production, creates deficite of goods.
more and more Americans fall out of labor force, they stop working relying on subsidies.

And if you deprive them of subsidies BLM riots will look like kindergarden... Domestic situation in the US is already awful, the country is on the brink of civil war, Trump will win next mid and presidential elections, with Democrats most probably trying to remove him via the Ukrainian - like coup, CIA has mastered technology of colored revolutions...
So, situation in the US is explosive, especially will be in 2023 and 2024.

this is about unemployment.

as for the rest of causes.
as I said, lack of labour affects local US production, import from China etc. grows.

And the problem is that liquidity is abundant only in the US, EU, Japan, UK and several other privileged Western minors like Sweden etc. - those who can QE.

The rest of the World can't and global inflation destroys them absolutely. I expect defaults of countries to start this year, Turkey, Egypt, Etc., with consequent hyperinflation and collaose of economy.
And they are producers and exporters to the US, i. e. deficite of goods Worldwide will grow, inflation in the US will keep growing, I expectcit it to become 2 digits by or in spring.

It means that the whole economy will sink deeper into unprofitability and you will need more growth in stock market to stay at least with zero losses...
More QE is needed even without any stock market collapse, while the Fed stops it by March....

As for the rate hyke. in 2008 the West was overdebted. By 2022 the World is overdebted, this period of 2008-2022 was quiet only because the West was sucking solvency out of the rest of the World.
Everybody was given a cheap credit, now there is nobody without debt in the World.

And now either you stretch your Western QEs to the rest of the World or debt will start to collapse in countries with small curencies, where central banks cannot print money without accelerating inflation immediately.

so, the rate hyke.
It will kill the unsolvent debtors, and in the US half of economy is unsolvent if the rate is higher than 5%. This is the reason why the Fed moved the rate to 0,25%, why ECB, UK, Japan moved their rates to zero - THE WESTERN ECONOMY AS A WHOLE IS UNSOLVENT, A BUNKRUPT LIVING ON LIFE SUPPORT OF PERMANENT QE AND ZERO INTEREST RATE.

and you are talking about some growth...
if you inject several trillions via government budget yearly, give credit to everybody with zero rate it may look like this government-financed expansion is growth but it is not.

I think you are waaaaay off base here. The labor shortage stings now as it is causing supply chain issues and operational problems however the end result is going to be higher wages and people moving to better jobs. We have the opportunity to fill those better positions helping American workers and we have the opportunity to grow our economy by filling in the other positions with immigrants. A growing and expanding economy is what it’s all about. We are flush with cash right now. Most the stimulus is trickling up to the top so the top earners and corporations will be seeing record profits. That money will be invested so housing and the stock market are going to be fine.

If you want to get paranoid then you should be freaking out about the wealth gap and automation. It is going to force us into a state of socialism whether you like it or not. It will either be run by the government or by the corporations, but in the end we are going to have a massive amount of people unemployed and only a small few control production and distribution of goods.

 

[Siberian]

I think you are waaaaay off base here. The labor shortage stings now as it is causing supply chain issues and operational problems however the end result is going to be higher wages and people moving to better jobs. We have the opportunity to fill those better positions helping American workers and we have the opportunity to grow our economy by filling in the other positions with immigrants. A growing and expanding economy is what it’s all about. We are flush with cash right now. Most the stimulus is trickling up to the top so the top earners and corporations will be seeing record profits. That money will be invested so housing and the stock market are going to be fine.

If you want to get paranoid then you should be freaking out about the wealth gap and automation. It is going to force us into a state of socialism whether you like it or not. It will either be run by the government or by the corporations, but in the end we are going to have a massive amount of people unemployed and only a small few control production and distribution of goods.

you seem not to understand interconnection between higher salaries and "being awash with cash" with inflation, while it is exactly the case.
all money printing since 2008 did not solve the problem, since every new 1 dollar of credit was creating less and less profit, and much less than this initial 1 dollar.
it nothing but made disproportions bigger.
to create 1 dollar of own production you had to print and spend 3 dollars, 2 of which were going to China and only 1 to yourself.
though, it's just a note, what I say referring to higher salaries is that if not followed with proper growth of productivity (and it is not) it accelerates inflation.

it is only one component of inflation, of course, but an important one.

And prior to elections Democrsts have to increase subsidies, i. e. inflation... or they will lose power for sure, and many of top Democrats may go to prison... i. e. subsidies will grow, inflation is going to grow too

 

[Slade3200]

you seem not to understand interconnection between higher salaries and "being awash with cash" with inflation, while it is exactly the case.
all money printing since 2008 did not solve the problem, since every new 1 dollar of credit was creating less and less profit, and much less than this initial 1 dollar.
it nothing but made disproportions bigger.
to create 1 dollar of own production you had to print and spend 3 dollars, 2 of which were going to China and only 1 to yourself.
though, it's just a note, what I say referring to higher salaries is that if not followed with proper growth of productivity (and it is not) it accelerates inflation.

it is only one component of inflation, of course, but an important one.

And prior to elections Democrsts have to increase subsidies, i. e. inflation... or they will lose power for sure, and many of top Democrats may go to prison... i. e. subsidies will grow, inflation is going to grow too

Since 2008-09 our economy has grown consistently and we’ve seen in recent years record numbers and maintained on of the strongest economies in the world. Inflation will be curbed by raising interest rates and fixing supply chain issues. The world economy is still in the process of reopening. The only adjustment we will see is a plateau after the rapid growth of reopening plains off. There is no bubble to burst right now. The wealth gap and automation are the real factors you should be focusing on if you want to be paranoid

 

[Siberian]

Since 2008-09 our economy has grown consistently and we’ve seen in recent years record numbers and maintained on of the strongest economies in the world. Inflation will be curbed by raising interest rates and fixing supply chain issues. The world economy is still in the process of reopening. The only adjustment we will see is a plateau after the rapid growth of reopening plains off. There is no bubble to burst right now. The wealth gap and automation are the real factors you should be focusing on if you want to be paranoid

inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted.
like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year.
if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year.

this was the reason of the Fed to artificially decreasing the interest rate, to prevent bankruptcy of US econony, increasing the debt US business pays the same money as it did before.
I met the figure of 4% as the level of death for the US econony. while inflation is 6,8% in November. In December I expect even bigger figure. So, to curb inflation the Fed must raise the interest rate to 8-910% at least. It means instant death of the US economy.
Even 3% will not stop inflation, and the Fed does not even dream of such level, it is believed to make 3 hykes by 0,25% in 2022.
It is laughable, inflation will not stop. No way, at all.

then, if you print 1 trln dollars and buy something it creates first demand, then production. But is is not natural demand and the whole"growth" of the US since 2008 is artificial and fake.
Because this demand is not earned, it is based on QE, and QE creates inflation, just its coming is postponed because Dollar is a global trade and reserve currency.
Besides, we have overproduction (deflationary) crisis, which leads to declining prices. So QE, money printing and inflation was just balancing deflation, keeping it at zero.
deflation caused by overproduction + inflation caused by QE = ~zero CPI
And it took 12 years and common efforts of most Western banks to start global inflation which we are seeing now.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted.
like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year.
if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year.

this was the reason of the Fed to artificially decreasing the interest rate, to prevent bankruptcy of US econony, increasing the debt US business pays the same money as it did before.
I met the figure of 4% as the level of death for the US econony. while inflation is 6,8% in November. In December I expect even bigger figure. So, to curb inflation the Fed must raise the interest rate to 8-910% at least. It means instant death of the US economy.
Even 3% will not stop inflation, and the Fed does not even dream of such level, it is believed to make 3 hykes by 0,25% in 2022.
It is laughable, inflation will not stop. No way, at all.

then, if you print 1 trln dollars and buy something it creates first demand, then production. But is is not natural demand and the whole"growth" of the US since 2008 is artificial and fake.
Because this demand is not earned, it is based on QE, and QE creates inflation, just its coming is postponed because Dollar is a global trade and reserve currency.
Besides, we have overproduction (deflationary) crisis, which leads to declining prices. So QE, money printing and inflation was just balancing deflation, keeping it at zero.
deflation caused by overproduction + inflation caused by QE = ~zero CPI
And it took 12 years and common efforts of most Western banks to start global inflation which we are seeing now.

How is the stock market over in Rusia doing? The weather turning cold in St Petersburg?

 

[Siberian]

How is the stock market over in Rusia doing? The weather turning cold in St Petersburg?

what is your picture of US inflation in stock market supposed to mean?

do you want to demonstrate how much it is going to fall?
from 4300 to 700

 

[Flopper]

now when algorythms define moves of the market crashes may become a result of manipulation or a mistake as easily as by black swans.

but now, this year situation is fundamentally different than a year ago.

with inflation of 6,8% stock msrket is the only place where an investot may get profit, at all, only virtual economy based on QE makes profit.

needless to say it is an artificial and not sustainable sutuation.

so, now you need the market to grow not less than ~7-8% a year just to stay with zero profit.

you don't even need a crash to go deep into losing money mode.

if the QE is finished, as the Fed promises, people start losing money as soon as the market starts to stagnate.

you don't need black swans, you just need several % of investors not to be as dumb as a log and start selling their stocks.

a relatively long period of stagnation or minor decline may start an avalanche of selling.
2 months, I presume. in spring. this is how it will be.

even if Putin doesn't surprise you with his response to US missiles and bases moving right to the Russian borders, and he has set the date for the US to respond to his ultimatum, mid January...

so, I expect a major crash not later than April, and then the Fed will resume QE, and in much bigger scale than before, tens of trillions, then - hyperinflation and the end of the World as we know it...

I have been in the market now for 57 years through 10 recessions. I have seen the markets fall more than 20% in one day, and have heard dozens of market gurus predicting crashes, recessions, depressions, and the end of life as we know it. Yet, I am still in the market and plan to remain so. If you have a well balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash, and hard assets, there is no need for concern if you are a long term investor. Currently, I am 43% stocks, 24% bonds, 20% real estate, and the remainder in cash and precious metals. I only shift to a higher percentage of stocks when the PE ratio falls below 20. This balanced approach to investing has served me well over the years and I have never had a sleepless night worrying about investments.

 

[Siberian]

I have been in the market now for 57 years through 10 recessions. I have seen the markets fall more than 20% in one day, and have heard dozens of market gurus predicting crashes, recessions, depressions, and the end of life as we know it. Yet, I am still in the market and plan to remain so. If you have a well balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, cash, and hard assets, there is no need for concern if you are a long term investor. Currently, I am 43% stocks, 24% bonds, 20% real estate, and the remainder in cash and precious metals. I only shift to a higher percentage of stocks when the PE ratio falls below 20. This balanced approach to investing has served me well over the years and I have never had a sleepless night worrying about investments.

well, such record certainly deserves respect, but life of a man is too short to totally rely on own experience.

How many hyperinflations did you personally experience in your personal business career?

I did one.

And in this case my experience, though not in exactly stock market, but in economy, is more profound.

 

[Siberian]

p. s. And last 50 years (since elimination of the golden standard) can be considered as one type of experience - the growing bubble.
all your experience is within one economic cycle, while now we are antering a breaking point between cycles. Like the one of 1929, but this one is much, much bigger and will be accompanied with hyperinflation, which the US has never experienced.
so, more caution and new approach is required, different from previous 5 decades..

 

[Slade3200]

inflation cannot be curbed by raising interest rates, because US economy is overdebted.
like, if you have debt of 100 dollars and pay 10% your payment is 10 dollars a year.
if your debt is 1000 dollars and the rate is 1% you pay the same 10 dollars a year.

this was the reason of the Fed to artificially decreasing the interest rate, to prevent bankruptcy of US econony, increasing the debt US business pays the same money as it did before.
I met the figure of 4% as the level of death for the US econony. while inflation is 6,8% in November. In December I expect even bigger figure. So, to curb inflation the Fed must raise the interest rate to 8-910% at least. It means instant death of the US economy.
Even 3% will not stop inflation, and the Fed does not even dream of such level, it is believed to make 3 hykes by 0,25% in 2022.
It is laughable, inflation will not stop. No way, at all.

then, if you print 1 trln dollars and buy something it creates first demand, then production. But is is not natural demand and the whole"growth" of the US since 2008 is artificial and fake.
Because this demand is not earned, it is based on QE, and QE creates inflation, just its coming is postponed because Dollar is a global trade and reserve currency.
Besides, we have overproduction (deflationary) crisis, which leads to declining prices. So QE, money printing and inflation was just balancing deflation, keeping it at zero.
deflation caused by overproduction + inflation caused by QE = ~zero CPI
And it took 12 years and common efforts of most Western banks to start global inflation which we are seeing now.

You are going to be disappointed which is a good thing as the impending doom you think is coming will not happen. Interest rates are raised and lowered to influence borrowing and investment and manage the value of our currency. At times of economic hardship and high unemployment rates are lowered. At times of high inflation they are raised.

 

[Flopper]

well, such record certainly deserves respect, but life of a man is too short to totally rely on own experience.

How many hyperinflations did you personally experience in your personal business career?

I did one.

And in this case my experience, though not in exactly stock market, but in economy, is more profound.

There has been only one period of hyperinflation since the 1930s and that would be in the late 70s and 80s. At that time I shifted my portfolio heavily into bonds. I was able to purchase AA and AAA bonds with very high yields. A got a number of 10 yr corporate issue fixed yield 12.5% to 16% bonds, school district municipal bonds 10 yr and 20yr fixed yield 10% to 13%. If we went into hyperinflation, I would be looking for high yield AA and AAA bonds.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

do you want to demonstrate how much it is going to fall?
from 4300 to 700

what are you willing to wager on that?