Make your bet, when will stock market collapse?

[Siberian]

And you would be an idiot.

There's going to be a correction in January...after that it's unclear and depends on what happens. (Which can be anything...too many things in motion to accurately predict anything)

Currently the inflation vs resignation is in play for the American economy... especially the supply chain interruptions are essentially playing a major role as well.

As you live in Siberia you don't notice these things as nobody trades with Russia to begin with. You are used to not having any money or anything to buy money with except for vodka and prostitutes.

exactly such idiots like you make me enjoy watching colapse of the US so much

when collapse starts to develop I will come back to this topic to share my joy with you

 

[Siberian]

And if course you will all rejoice and blame Biden totally.
I can remember when it crashed under GWB and you said nothing or blamed him for it. How coincidental and hypocritical.

not at all, all US presidents starting from Reagan contributed to your stock exchange bubble
or, to be precise - since Golden standard elimination...

 

[Meister]

It was actually pretty stagnant for more than a year. For example between 1 Jan 2018 and 1 Jan 2019 the DJI was down 5.63%, the S&P was down 6.24, and the NASDAQ was down 3.6%.

That's not a fair take because there WAS a correction in that year. From the day that Trump won the election to the day that the economy shut down, it went from
19,000+ to 28,000+. If you want to witness the market starting to stagnate, look at the year between Jan of 2015 to Oct 2016 when it went from 17,800+ to 17,900+.
That included a double dip, to me showing that the EO's of Obama were kicking in. The perception changed when Trump won the 2016 election.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

That's not a fair take because there WAS a correction in that year. From the day that Trump won the election to the day that the economy shut down, it went from
19,000+ to 28,000+

Fair or not, it is a reality, and the stagnation lasted more than just the year.

And of the 9000 gain you mention, more than half of it came in the first year. Things slowed down after that.

 

[Meister]

Fair or not, it is a reality, and the stagnation lasted more than just the year.

And of the 9000 gain you mention, more than half of it came in the first year. Things slowed down after that.

Actually, a raging market is not too good IMO. The fed banks feel the need to start directing the traffic.

 

[edthecynic]

When a Republican't gets elected president, as always happens when they do get elected.

 

[JohnDB]

Actually, a raging market is not too good IMO. The fed banks feel the need to start directing the traffic.

The recent massive bear Market days tell the truth though...this volatility is indicative of the massive amount of borrowed money in the market...and what happens when it eventually comes out.

And it's coming out.

None of these companies are worth the capitalization they currently have. Many solid companies are currently under capitalized...they have solid growth and earnings and even dividends...but they grow slower...so they got forgotten in the rush to tech stocks that are struggling to produce enough chips to make profits.
A 300 P/E ratio is nuts stuff. (NVIDIA)
But Micron has an 8?
Energy Transfer has a 4 with a 7% dividend. (9% if you hold and DRIP)

So guess what is going to happen soon?

 

[Siberian]

another aspect which makes collapse inevitable

with inflation at 6,8% you cannot attract capital to finance the debt with interest rate close to zero. or even 3% or even 5%

it means now private capital will abstain from refinancing all kinds of debt

now only QE, emission of money can refinance not only government, but also private debt

the Fed needs to increase QE by many times to prevent debt collapse, not to reduce QE...

but it will accelerate inflation even more

so, it is a dead end, the Fed declares intention to stop QE and hyke the rate, but it cannot and will not do so, because it means immediate (in a month or two) collapse of everything.

The Fed just hopes to live another couple of months, it is game of words, it gets extra time until everybody realizes that hyperinflation is inevitable and rushes to gold, starting the avalanche if collapse of markets and Dollar..

in Russian fairy tales there's a personage - "A worrior at the crossroads" (paining by famous artist Vasnetsov) , and writing on the stone says - You go to the left - will lose your horse, to the right - you will lose your freedom, forward - you will lose your life.

For the Fed (and the US) all 3 directions lead to collapse, but in different ways and time.

 

[citygator]

If trends hold court the next economic downturn will occur under the next republicans president… again.

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

A giant bubble in the stock market is ready to explode.

Capitalisation of stock market/GDP = 250%, it is twice as much as it was in 2004-2007 and 50% higher than in 2012-2019.
While historic average is about 100%.

P/E index is also 30-70% higher than in mentioned periods.

Stock market grows only on QE, which is going to be finished by March.
As well the Fed is going to start hyking the interest rate and it will make giant debt unsustainable. Mass bankruptcies will start, it will be much, much worse than the Great Depression.

And the Fed cannot but to hyke the rate, because inflation has already started to accelerate, in a year it will become hyperinflation.

And much earlier, when inflation gets two digits, capital flow from the US (including stock market) will start.
Making everything even worse...

So, name the month of 2022 when US (and World) stock market is goint to collapse.

my choice - April

Most who are awake know an economic shitshow n a half is coming....

 

[expat_panama]

Seriously folks, Business affects the government as much as the government affects business. Right now equity price trends are positive and that's a reality that grownups deal with. Another reality is that things change.

Beyond that, how many of the current "bets" on this thread are backed up by actual market transactions?

 

[justoffal]

I'm guessing a major correction toward the end of the first calendar quarter or early in the second quarter.

When QE becomes the foundation for growth how can collapse not be inevitable? It's the old J Wellington Wimpy adage about paying for his hamburger next Tuesday.....
Tuesday never comes..

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Tomorrow is opening on the right note

 

[justoffal]

Tomorrow is opening on the right note

View attachment 582916

Maybe...maybe not....how much of that green is just overblown fiat? This market is built on clay legs.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Maybe...maybe not....how much of that green is just overblown fiat? This market is built on clay legs.

whatever you say little buddy. Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way

 

[justoffal]

whatever you say little buddy. Take all your money and put it under your mattress, it will be safest that way

Point made....
Looking at Bitcoin these days but I'm very suspicious of it.

Jo

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Point made....
Looking at Bitcoin these days but I'm very suspicious of it.

Jo

you missed that boat.

 

[justoffal]

you missed that boat.

Probably

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Probably

There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into

 

[justoffal]

There are some other up and coming cyrptos you could look into

Scares the shit out of me actually