Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[Dante]

I have to wonder if the disgusting sexist and misogynistic attacks on Harris by the Trumplicans will alienate women voters. They attacked Fani Willis like that also, making their double standard prettyy obvious when it comes to woman.

And Fani won her next election

 

[Dante]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

Democratic Convention has been a YUGE success.

 

[Dante]

DNC Brings in Higher Ratings Than RNC All Four Nights​

 

[Dante]

Interesting, but nothing like most people on all sides think or believe

Kamala Harris' Odds of Beating Donald Trump After RFK Jr. Dropped Out​

 

[Dante]

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

UPDATED Aug. 24, 2024

 

[Dante]

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

UPDATED Aug. 24, 2024

 

[Dante]

 

[Dante]

 

[Dante]

Next week it all heats up.

Labor Day weekend

 

[Meathead]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

https://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

 

[Dante]

We’ll know soon what kind of polling bounce Kamala Harris got out of her very good convention in Chicago. I’m especially curious how she’s faring in Pennsylvania and Georgia, which are the most critical battlegrounds in the race. Given Harris’s and the convention’s focus on themes like patriotism, small-town values and the economy, I can see her gaining a couple of points in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Democrats’ hammering of Trump on abortion is also going to help Harris in Pennsylvania and Arizona, where abortion rights is a hot-button issue.

audio: [The Democrats’ Joyfest is Over. Now Comes The Slugfest.] Kamala Harris was flying high last week, but Donald Trump is poised to bring her back down to earth.​

But consider this: Harris has won the vast majority of news cycles since she declared her candidacy. And yet, she is only two or three percentage points ahead of Trump in the national polling average and effectively tied with him in the seven swing states that will decide the election. Structural factors — polarization, the gender gap, Republicans’ advantage in the Electoral College — are keeping this race tight.
To that end, with early voting only weeks away, the battle between Harris and Trump will be to find the best strategies for the three most important elements of this campaign.

To that end, with early voting only weeks away, the battle between Harris and Trump will be to find the best strategies for the three most important elements of this campaign.


Defining the race: Harris wants...
Defining Harris: So far, Harris is...
Defining Trump: The former president is struggling. He is trying to appeal to...

Opinion | Harris Has the Momentum. But Trump Has the Edge on What Matters Most.

With early voting only weeks away, the race is still a close one.

www.nytimes.com

"Right now, Harris has the momentum, but I think the Electoral College currently favors Trump. Nothing will be more critical than the Sept. 10 debate to define the race, Trump and Harris. A debate changes things in an instant. Just ask Joe Biden."

 

[Dante]

Tuesday, August 27 -- heading into Labor Day Weekend:


Vice President Kamala Harris has jumped ahead in the 2024 presidential race following last week's Democratic National Convention, according to the latest polling from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab).


In a survey released Tuesday, Harris was found to be 4 points ahead of former President Donald Trump among U.S. voters, according to the poll from PolCom Lab and Mainstreet Research USA. Out of the 929 registered voters surveyed between August 23 and 25, 47 percent backed Harris, while 43 percent of respondents said they supported Trump for president. Harris' lead is slightly outside the poll's margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

The vice president held the same lead among likely voters surveyed by PolCom Lab, where 49 percent backed Harris, compared to 45 percent supporting Trump.

 

[JohnDB]

Yellow lines represent the actual vote counts. The red and blue lines represent polling data.

It's not looking good for Harris. She is gaining...but not enough yet. She has 70 days.

 

[Dante]

Yellow lines represent the actual vote counts. The red and blue lines represent polling data.

It's not looking good for Harris. She is gaining...but not enough yet. She has 70 days.


View attachment 1002583

Rasmussen?

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

In part 2 of this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew breaks down the Rasmussen Reports poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist ran…

fivethirtyeight.com

Jan. 3, 2010,

Is Rasmussen Reports Biased?​

Jul 01, 2023

Polling averages shouldn't be political litmus tests​

And they need consistent standards, not make-it-up-as-you-go​

​

538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis​

Philip Bump
March 8, 2024 at 3:39 p.m. EST

The poll aggregation and evaluation site 538, part of ABC News, dropped the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen Reports from inclusion in its polling averages and forecasts.

The decision comes after months of consideration that broke into public view in June. At that point, G. Elliott Morris, ABC News’s editorial director of data analytics and 538 lead, presented Rasmussen with questions meant to evaluate its objectivity and methodology. Rasmussen published the letter on its website, triggering backlash against 538 in right-wing media — and by Nate Silver, the founder of what was then called FiveThirtyEight. No change was implemented.


Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.

As time passed, though, Rasmussen’s inability to meet the standards set by 538 — and two dubious polls conducted for right-wing organizations — eventually led 538 to make the change this week.

 

[Dante]

The Democrats moving to Harris is proving to be a game changer

The surveys, released Wednesday, find a close, two-way Harris-Trump race: Harris is up by 1 percentage point in Arizona and by 2 points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in North Carolina. All are within the margin of sampling error.

In past Fox News surveys, Biden trailed Trump in each state: by 5 points in both Arizona and Nevada (June), by 6 in Georgia (April) and by 5 points in North Carolina (February

Fox News Poll shows Harris pulling ahead​

Fox News Poll: Harris closes gap with Trump in Sun Belt states ​

Trump leads on the economy and immigration, Harris leads on abortion and uniting the U.S.​

By Dana Blanton , Victoria Balara Fox News
Published August 28,

 

[JohnDB]

Rasmussen?

The Poll That Ended Dilbert

In part 2 of this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew breaks down the Rasmussen Reports poll that Dilbert creator Scott Adams went on a racist ran…

fivethirtyeight.com

Jan. 3, 2010,

Is Rasmussen Reports Biased?​

Jul 01, 2023

Polling averages shouldn't be political litmus tests​

And they need consistent standards, not make-it-up-as-you-go​

​

538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis​

Philip Bump
March 8, 2024 at 3:39 p.m. EST

The poll aggregation and evaluation site 538, part of ABC News, dropped the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen Reports from inclusion in its polling averages and forecasts.

The decision comes after months of consideration that broke into public view in June. At that point, G. Elliott Morris, ABC News’s editorial director of data analytics and 538 lead, presented Rasmussen with questions meant to evaluate its objectivity and methodology. Rasmussen published the letter on its website, triggering backlash against 538 in right-wing media — and by Nate Silver, the founder of what was then called FiveThirtyEight. No change was implemented.


Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.

As time passed, though, Rasmussen’s inability to meet the standards set by 538 — and two dubious polls conducted for right-wing organizations — eventually led 538 to make the change this week.

Sounds like more cancel culture to me.

Especially when verifiable proof of results from the polling are shown to be accurate. More accurate than 538.

Do you listen to the weather person that never gets the forecast right or the one that is usually more correct?

Now we live in an age where we Fite the weatherman who predicts a hurricane coming because we have tickets to a baseball game and we don't want to get wet.

This is how nuts things have gotten.

 

[JohnDB]

Also....
Latest polling shows that where Kamala had pulled even with Trump in total number of votes (always behind in electoral college votes) She is now dropping once again and Donald is staying steady in pecentages.

New large scale poll is supposed to come out today or tomorrow

We'll see what comes.

 

[HikerGuy83]

What is interesting is not that some red states seem to be in play, but that MAGA has been losing ground since 2020.

Utter garbage

 

[JohnDB]

 

[Dante]

Sounds like more cancel culture to me.

Especially when verifiable proof of results from the polling are shown to be accurate. More accurate than 538.

Do you listen to the weather person that never gets the forecast right or the one that is usually more correct?

Now we live in an age where we Fite the weatherman who predicts a hurricane coming because we have tickets to a baseball game and we don't want to get wet.

This is how nuts things have gotten.

Cancel culture?

Trump has thrown so many people under a bus, he long ago ordered a fleet of buses.