Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

Polls are simply aids for Democrats. It helps figure out how many ballots to "harvest" pre/post election. Most have lost any scientific measuring at this point.
 
The biggest changes, according to the Fox polling, come from the independent and Hispanic voters.

In August, independent voters favored Trump by 8 points. They now favor Harris by 12 points.

Last month, Hispanic voters favored Trump by 6 points. They are now favoring Harris' campaign by 12 points.

Kamala Harris Takes Lead Over Trump in Fox News Poll


"It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here," Fox noted.

In August, Fox also shared that Harris was closing the gap with Trump in the Sun Belt states, which includes Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas as well as battleground states like Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

Harris also holds onto many of Biden's voters from the 2020 election, with 93 percent of his voters, according to Fox. Trump also, however, is keeping nearly all of his voters from four years ago, at 94 percent. Among 2020 non-voters, Harris is up by 3 points.

"Harris' advantage over Trump on a variety of personal traits is clearly helping her," says Shaw. "It's a big deal that she's been able to fight to a draw on protecting free speech despite aggressive Republican efforts to highlight the Biden administration's censorship of right-leaning views on social media."

Kamala looking good.webp
 
The dainty wouldn’t even recognize a valid poll. If there were any.
 
Uh oh!

Harris Ahead in Pennsylvania and Tied Nationally? Unpacking an Unexpected Result.​


Although it could simply reflect the normal variation of polling results, it may also point to a declining Trump edge in the Electoral College.

We have our first two polls since last week’s presidential debate: one national poll and one poll of Pennsylvania.

Combined, they’re a bit of a puzzle.

In the national poll, Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are tied among likely voters, 47 percent to 47 percent — a slight gain for Ms. Harris since our last national survey, taken immediately before the debate.

At the same time, Ms. Harris had a four-point lead in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Before getting into the head-scratching details, let’s start with the big picture:

 
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