Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[Dante]

Also....
Latest polling shows that where Kamala had pulled even with Trump in total number of votes (always behind in electoral college votes) She is now dropping once again and Donald is staying steady in pecentages.

New large scale poll is supposed to come out today or tomorrow

We'll see what comes.

We shall see.

Would love to see the gymnastics you'll be doing if Trump looks bad

 

[Dante]

Utter garbage

truth: MAGA has been losing ground since 2020.

 

[JohnDB]

We shall see.

Would love to see the gymnastics you'll be doing if Trump looks bad

I'm not "pro-Trump" or pro-Harris or "anti" either one of them.

I've been watching elections for 50+ years.
There are the customary things that have gone on all these years and then we got all the new twists of things they think work better. HA!

Since the advent of the poll explosion where a bunch of people are doing them now federally instead of just localized polsters polling their specific areas....the polls have been a train wreck of incompetence and illogical formulas. Because in essence it boils down to the calculus formulas and a lot of grunt labor.

And many simply can't math.

The pollsters give extra weight to democratic party voters for a wide variety of reasons that have to do with human behavior. But how much extra weight is the BIG QUESTION.
And for the last 5 elections the polls somehow believe they are influencing the outcome of the election. Kinda like the tail wagging the dog here.

That's why when 538 pulls the Rasmussen poll out of their "poll averages" even though they have systematically been one of the top 5 most accurate....it tends to beg the question "WHY?"

Rasmussen is prolific in posting their information on social media and their website because the traffic they receive causes them to receive revenue on Social Media.

Now who is participating on social media? Is it just Republicans or is it a variety of sources of people groups?

Just because you do not like the message...do not discount what they are saying. Currently nationwide Trump holds a 2% lead over Harris which is growing as it was just 1.6 after being in a dead heat.
Harris should have published a platform....but she didn't. She would have some sort of message to rally around. She could have climbed up and beyond where she is now.

 

[Dante]

I'm not "pro-Trump" or pro-Harris or "anti" either one of them.

I've been watching elections for 50+ years.
There are the customary things that have gone on all these years and then we got all the new twists of things they think work better. HA!

Since the advent of the poll explosion where a bunch of people are doing them now federally instead of just localized polsters polling their specific areas....the polls have been a train wreck of incompetence and illogical formulas. Because in essence it boils down to the calculus formulas and a lot of grunt labor.

And many simply can't math.

The pollsters give extra weight to democratic party voters for a wide variety of reasons that have to do with human behavior. But how much extra weight is the BIG QUESTION.
And for the last 5 elections the polls somehow believe they are influencing the outcome of the election. Kinda like the tail wagging the dog here.

That's why when 538 pulls the Rasmussen poll out of their "poll averages" even though they have systematically been one of the top 5 most accurate....it tends to beg the question "WHY?"

Rasmussen is prolific in posting their information on social media and their website because the traffic they receive causes them to receive revenue on Social Media.

Now who is participating on social media? Is it just Republicans or is it a variety of sources of people groups?

Just because you do not like the message...do not discount what they are saying. Currently nationwide Trump holds a 2% lead over Harris which is growing as it was just 1.6 after being in a dead heat.
Harris should have published a platform....but she didn't. She would have some sort of message to rally around. She could have climbed up and beyond where she is now.

Most people are confused with what polls are, what pollsters actually do, and what people who analyze polls are usually doing.

If it all so simple, life would be. Maybe you too confuse the horse race polls in elections, for other polls.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[JohnDB]

This one makes zero logical sense. Popular Vote count and EC are way off from each other. Like stupid off.

 

[Dante]

August 26th

2024

.

...

August 31st

2024

 

[Rambunctious]

 

[Rambunctious]

How did those big crowds work out for Trump and Bernie in 2020?

 

[Dante]

Uh oh...

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted from August 23 to 27

24 percent of Republicans have a positive view of Harris' campaign
93 percent of Democrats have a positive view of Harris' campaign
56 percent of independents have a positive view of Harris' campaign


13 percent of Democrats have a positive view of Trump's campaign.
79 percent of Republicans have a positive view of Trump's campaign
38 percent of independents have a positive view of Trump's campaign

Overall, 56 percent of those surveyed think Harris has done an excellent or good job running her campaign while 41 percent say the same for Trump.

The poll's sample is 2,496 adults and consists of 29 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Newsweek has reached out to Trump and Harris' campaigns via email for comment on Sunday morning.

 

[Dante]

View attachment 1004495

Link?

 

[Rambunctious]

Link?

Its on X...

 

[Dante]

Its on X...

thought so.

 

[Dante]

Here we are well into July. Getting close to where the presidential contest tightens up. Soon it's September and we'll be waiting for October surprises, if any.

But for now all we've had are the innocents and ill-informed ranting about polls. Not grasping what the polls actually are, what they do, who analyzes them and how, and who actually does the polls and is respected, trusted and valued.


and now...
"After months of brutal 2024 polls, President Biden has some cause for optimism."

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/09/biden-trump-2024-polls-post-conviction-lead

ttt

bump

 

[Dante]

ALL AFTER LABOR DAY WEEKEND​

​

Kamala Harris now leads in US polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge​

Ashley Kirk
Analysis of 2024 polling and previous elections involving Donald Trump suggests race is still too close to call

CNN polls across six battlegrounds find Georgia and Pennsylvania are key toss-ups​

The 2024 presidential campaign’s home stretch kicks off with a mixed outlook across six key battlegrounds, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state. Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs.

Across each of them, an average of 15% of likely voters say they have not yet firmly decided their choice, suggesting a sizable share of voters could shift their views on the race as attention to the campaign rises and campaign activity, especially in these states, hits a fever pitch in the final nine weeks before Election Day.

Likely voters in Wisconsin break 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, and in Michigan, it’s 48% Harris to 43% Trump. In Arizona, Trump lands at 49% to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, 48% back Harris to 47% for Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47%.

Harris pulls ahead of Trump in battlegrounds, poll finds​

Harris is polling ahead of Trump in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — but her slight lead is either within or just barely outside the margin of error.

 

[Dante]

The fear factor is now hurting Trump​

Significantly more swing-state voters view Trump as a “threat to the country” than Harris. It wasn’t always thus.


The swing-state polling asked, as CNN has before, about whether voters viewed the candidates as “too extreme.” But then it took things a step further and asked people who agreed with the statement that a candidate was “too extreme” whether that candidate was also “so extreme that they pose a threat to the country.”

Across six key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — an average of 54 percent of registered voters said Trump was “too extreme,” with 48 percent also saying that he threatens the country. In each state, at least half of voters said Trump was “too extreme,” and at least 46 percent said he was a threat to the country.

Harris’s numbers were significantly lower: An average of 44 percent said she was “too extreme,” and just 39 percent regarded her perceived extremeness as a threat to the country. In no state did a majority regard her as too extreme; most voters instead regarded her as “generally mainstream.”

 

[Dante]

So, can we still trust polls?​

It’s important to put the 2020 performance of election polls into perspective. The errors were consequential, to be sure, and very sizable compared with most election polls. But they were not particularly large in absolute terms – just a few percentage points, on average, on each candidate’s support.


It’s also crucial to understand that most polls are not about elections. Instead, they aim to capture people’s views on the key issues of the day, the realities of their lives, such as their employment, lifestyle activities or health care, where they get their information, and other subjects.


This kind of polling is important because it provides an independent source of information about what Americans experience and what they believe – without which we’d be left with whatever pundits, parties and public officials claim the public is thinking.

Fortunately, the news is better when it comes to this type of issue polling. We have a lot of evidence that polls that are weighted to match the population on important demographic categories do a good job.


And when it comes to issue polling, errors in accurately representing the share of Biden or Trump voters make very little difference in the results. For example, small errors in candidate support are less meaningful when trying to understand how people feel about abortion, the budget deficit, foreign aid, climate change or other issues. Plus, just because someone supports a certain candidate doesn’t mean they agree with that candidate on every issue.


In sum, pollsters recognize the challenges they are facing and are working hard to ensure that their work continues to accurately represent the views of the public. One way this is happening is through the growth of different ways of doing polls, some of which may be less reliable than others. Experimentation is a good thing, but it makes the job of a poll consumer – you – much harder. Our last lesson will focus on how you can become a more astute reader of the polls.

 

[Dante]

Public Opinion Polling Basics

How do polls work? What are the different kinds of polls? And what should you look for in a high-quality opinion poll? A Pew Research Center survey methodologist answers these questions and more in six short, easy to read lessons.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[Dante]

August 31

September 13

 

[Dante]

Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?
Updated September 13, 2024

What’s changed: The first two post-debate polls have rolled in. It’s still too early to know who has benefited yet, but Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead nationally as well as in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina and Nevada remain a tie.

Harris is leading in 3 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/